Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

Time to get more conservative with your investments. Just moved my retirement accounts from 100% in a 2050 lifecycle fund to 75% in a 2030 lifecycle fund and 25% in just government bonds.

Not all investment vehicles have a "lifecycle" fund but its intent is to be appropriately conservative for a target date. As the date grows closer, the fund gets more conservative in order to lessen the risk of sudden swings right before you retire.

I don't recommend day-trading, or liquidating all your investments, or anything like that. However, if there's a professionally managed fund with the specific goal of being stable along the timeframe of 11 years, I'm gonna take it.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#6

Post by eloff » Wed, Aug 14, 2019, 1:16 PM UTC

gigatexal wrote: post #3

One of the surest signs to a recession one can find.

It's right about half the time historically iirc. Which is better than most indicators, but still just flipping a coin.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#7

Post by odonnellryan » Wed, Aug 14, 2019, 1:17 PM UTC

ConceitedCode wrote: post #4

HN really seems to like these stories. Previous discussions: 8 months ago - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18593407 4 months ago - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19463225 4 months ago - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19491763 8 days ago - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20615403

This is news, since it is the 2-10 year.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#8

Post by odonnellryan » Wed, Aug 14, 2019, 1:17 PM UTC

eloff wrote: post #6

gigatexal wrote: post #3

One of the surest signs to a recession one can find.

It's right about half the time historically iirc. Which is better than most indicators, but still just flipping a coin.

Hasn't it been right 7/8 of the last recessions?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#9

Post by gravelc » Wed, Aug 14, 2019, 1:24 PM UTC

odonnellryan wrote: post #8

eloff wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's right about half the time historically iirc. Which is better than most indicators, but still just flipping a coin.

Hasn't it been right 7/8 of the last recessions?

As the joke often goes, it predicted 14 of the last 8 recessions.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#10

Post by anonymousJim12 » Wed, Aug 14, 2019, 1:25 PM UTC

odonnellryan wrote: post #8

eloff wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's right about half the time historically iirc. Which is better than most indicators, but still just flipping a coin.

Hasn't it been right 7/8 of the last recessions?

Has it ever inverted but then a near term recession never followed?