Ray Kurzweil: How My Predictions Are Faring (2010)
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Ray Kurzweil: How My Predictions Are Faring (2010)
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Re: Ray Kurzweil: How My Predictions Are Faring (2010)
#2First, my compliments to any prophet who goes back to actually audit his predictions.
Having said that, I think Ray is grading himself on a pretty generous curve. Many predictions of the form "X will be Y" are counted as correct if somewhere in the world at some cost there is technology available allowing X to be Y.
As a neutral reader, those predictions sure sound like they are supposedly to be widespread rather than merely existing.
Re: Ray Kurzweil: How My Predictions Are Faring (2010)
#3Re: Ray Kurzweil: How My Predictions Are Faring (2010)
#4If you're looking for them, the 3 "wrongs" are on pages 38, 82, and 83.
He's obviously a "glass half full" kind of guy with most of his predictions.
Re: Ray Kurzweil: How My Predictions Are Faring (2010)
#5First, my compliments to any prophet who goes back to actually audit his predictions. Having said that, I think Ray is grading himself on a pretty generous curve. Many predictions of the form "X will be Y" are counted as correct if somewhere in the world at some cost there is technology available allowing X to be Y. As a neutral reader, those predictions sure sound like they are supposedly to be widespread rather tha…
Right. Examples:
> PREDICTION: Personal computers are available in a wide range of sizes and shapes, and are commonly embedded in clothing and jewelry such as wristwatches, rings, earrings and other body ornaments
> ACCURACY: Correct
> PREDICTION: The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) dictation software, but keyboards are still used. CSR is very accurate, far more so than the human transcriptionists who were used up until a few years ago.
> ACCURACY: Partially correct
Re: Ray Kurzweil: How My Predictions Are Faring (2010)
#6First, my compliments to any prophet who goes back to actually audit his predictions. Having said that, I think Ray is grading himself on a pretty generous curve. Many predictions of the form "X will be Y" are counted as correct if somewhere in the world at some cost there is technology available allowing X to be Y. As a neutral reader, those predictions sure sound like they are supposedly to be widespread rather tha…
Right. Examples: > PREDICTION: Personal computers are available in a wide range of sizes and shapes, and are commonly embedded in clothing and jewelry such as wristwatches, rings, earrings and other body ornaments > ACCURACY: Correct > PREDICTION: The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) dictation software, but keyboards are still used. CSR is very accurate, far more so than the human…
Mostly depends on what a personal computer is:
http://www.sparkfun.com/products/9266
I could imagine a lillypad earring :)
Re: Ray Kurzweil: How My Predictions Are Faring (2010)
#7First, my compliments to any prophet who goes back to actually audit his predictions. Having said that, I think Ray is grading himself on a pretty generous curve. Many predictions of the form "X will be Y" are counted as correct if somewhere in the world at some cost there is technology available allowing X to be Y. As a neutral reader, those predictions sure sound like they are supposedly to be widespread rather tha…
That may be, but I don't know of anyone else making these kind of predictions with Ray's accuracy.
Re: Ray Kurzweil: How My Predictions Are Faring (2010)
#8First, my compliments to any prophet who goes back to actually audit his predictions. Having said that, I think Ray is grading himself on a pretty generous curve. Many predictions of the form "X will be Y" are counted as correct if somewhere in the world at some cost there is technology available allowing X to be Y. As a neutral reader, those predictions sure sound like they are supposedly to be widespread rather tha…
Right. Examples: > PREDICTION: Personal computers are available in a wide range of sizes and shapes, and are commonly embedded in clothing and jewelry such as wristwatches, rings, earrings and other body ornaments > ACCURACY: Correct > PREDICTION: The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) dictation software, but keyboards are still used. CSR is very accurate, far more so than the human…
Page 38 seems to take the opposite view:
PREDICTION: Keyboards still exist, but most textual language is created by speaking. ACCURACY: Wrong
Re: Ray Kurzweil: How My Predictions Are Faring (2010)
#9As I was reading this, I kept thinking, "Ray is really lucky Steve Jobs exists." A large chunk of those predictions seem to rely on the iPad, iPhone, and iPod Nano having existed and being popular to be marked correct.
Re: Ray Kurzweil: How My Predictions Are Faring (2010)
#10As I was reading this, I kept thinking, "Ray is really lucky Steve Jobs exists." A large chunk of those predictions seem to rely on the iPad, iPhone, and iPod Nano having existed and being popular to be marked correct.
I don't think Steve Jobs can take credit for MP3 players existing. If people weren't using Ipods and Iphones, they would be using Diamond Rios and Blackberrys that were pretty similar.