Fundamental rule of traffic: building new roads makes people drive more (2015)
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Re: Fundamental rule of traffic: building new roads makes people drive more (2015)
#2It's called "elastic demand" and it just means that roads are useful. The Boring Company has a twofold solution (a) charge for usage, and (b) build to 30 levels or more to meet demand
Re: Fundamental rule of traffic: building new roads makes people drive more (2015)
#3Here is the paper the article attempted to cite [1] (article link is 404ing right now)
[1] https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=108...
I believe the article mentions this, but the paper only studies urban-area VKT, the paper mentions that the same effects do not apply to interstate highway system or a number of other categories.
Re: Fundamental rule of traffic: building new roads makes people drive more (2015)
#4Is this even a problem? People are given an opportunity to do something and then they do it. That's way better than new roads going unused, isn't it?
I like congestion charging alright, which the article advocates at the very end, but it has a habit of being regressive - it's easy for me, as a software engineer, to show up at work at 11AM, but that might not be the case for those who can less afford to pay those charges. I think it's a net positive, but it can have consequences - especially in places like the Bay Area where there is no vaguely affordable housing anywhere near where the jobs are.
Why not think about locating things people want to go to - especially their jobs - near where they live? Why do we need sprawling suburban "campuses" and a million tech busses to shuttle people from the cities to them? Throwing up huge office buildings and tech HQs in SF - but refusing to build housing the same way - is only a little tiny bit better.
Both just force people to the exurbs, creates more super commuters and more demand on the roads.
Re: Fundamental rule of traffic: building new roads makes people drive more (2015)
#5Which is also why building bigger roads, generally doesn't improve traffic issues.
Given the options available, people will generally choose the most hassle-free route. If public transit improves, more people will take it, which will improve road traffic.
If bigger roads are built, less people will take public transit, because roads can handle more cars before the traffic factor forces people to use alternatives.
This breaks down a bit outside cities where the only option is to drive (no buses, too far to bike or walk), but remote areas don't usually have traffic problems even with low capacity roads.
Edit, more info for the curious: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand
Re: Fundamental rule of traffic: building new roads makes people drive more (2015)
#6It's called "elastic demand" and it just means that roads are useful. The Boring Company has a twofold solution (a) charge for usage, and (b) build to 30 levels or more to meet demand
In the Old World we have public mass transit. One vehicle can transport a thousand commuters, and it does not need to be stored in the most desired area of the city for the duration of a working day.
Sometimes it looks like the Silicon Valley is trying to solve transit problems either against the laws of physics and economics or, alternatively, ignoring solutions that were there already in the 1800s.
Re: Fundamental rule of traffic: building new roads makes people drive more (2015)
#7I'm visiting my hometown of Houston after now having lived in SF for just under 3 years, and my partner and mine most common debate thread as we sit in Houston traffic is - what did Houston do differently, to get these uniquely Houston traffic problems? Is it "Houston's" fault, or the fact that it has an extra 2 million people? Does it actually have 2 million more people, or did it just octopus across the entire region to a ridiculous point and thus inflate its population numbers (really, does Clear Lake count as "Houston?" parts are nearly 20 miles away, and can take an hour or even two to get to on a straight shot freeway).
Here's some questions we argue:
1. Where's the money coming from? We see massive Houston mega-projects, huge new freeways built on top of massive existent ones. Yet there's no gas tax, no state income tax, and I don't remember there even being a city income tax (that was several years ago that I worked here though). So who's paying for the new freeways?
2. Why do cars clump at exits? Why do Houstonians sometimes spend 15+minutes at a total standstill waiting to exit? Is it because of line cutters (culture of driving)? Is it because of people reacting violently to line cutters (culture of driving)? Is it because of poor design? Is it as the Houston Chronicle has argued and due to feeder roads, a feature that doesn't exist outside of Houston/Dallas (and thus is a strong contender)? Is it simply because the population is massive and driving is the only viable option to get around, and thus the roads are always clogged? Is it actually an issue in San Francisco, and we simply don't notice because we drive motorcycles (unlikely, but I will pay extra attention when we return)?
3. Why the fuck did i-45, in the middle of a 50 year construction project, suddenly swap out freeway-going-under-bridge design in the Clear Lake area for freeway-is-a-bridge design? Now it's terrifying to drive the speed limit over those bridges because you might smash at 65mph into a half-mile exit-clump line.
Re: Fundamental rule of traffic: building new roads makes people drive more (2015)
#8The more intelligent approach to building roads is one i've seen in Washington DC. While the metro system isnt perfect, they allocated a portion of the highway to rail (middle track between both directions on the highway.) This way, the community expanded outwards via longer and longer highways and there was an obvious way to eventually simultaneously also expand the metro system outwards.
They did this with the Orange Line westwards inbetween Route 66. They then did this with the Silver Line North-westwards in-between Route the Dulles tollway.
I imagine the increased traffic due to increased highway capacity is partly because exurbs dont have mass transit support back to the center city...yet people reach further outwards to exurbs seeking more affordable housing. The Washington DC approach solves parts of that problem quite well.
Re: Fundamental rule of traffic: building new roads makes people drive more (2015)
#9It's called "elastic demand" and it just means that roads are useful. The Boring Company has a twofold solution (a) charge for usage, and (b) build to 30 levels or more to meet demand
In the Old World we have public mass transit. One vehicle can transport a thousand commuters, and it does not need to be stored in the most desired area of the city for the duration of a working day. Sometimes it looks like the Silicon Valley is trying to solve transit problems either against the laws of physics and economics or, alternatively, ignoring solutions that were there already in the 1800s.
In the “old world” cities like London, Paris, Berlin and others are facing the eact same problems, with or without those overcrowded, overpriced buses you mentioned.
Re: Fundamental rule of traffic: building new roads makes people drive more (2015)
#10It's called "elastic demand" and it just means that roads are useful. The Boring Company has a twofold solution (a) charge for usage, and (b) build to 30 levels or more to meet demand
This appears to be a classic case of a visible problem where the effects of the solution are not visible immediately.
Building wider roads is a success if they move more people compared to a more narrow road. It doesn't matter if they stay congested even as you widen them. The goal of a wider road isn't to reduce congestion the goal is to move more people.
This same type of reasoning is used against constructing more housing because building more housing doesn't have an impact on rent prices while ignoring that every new apartment provides housing for a new person. The goal of more housing isn't to reduce rent prices, it's housing more people!