China’s Economy Slows Sharply

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees:

https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#6

Post by volkl48 » Fri, Dec 14, 2018, 8:02 PM UTC

barrow-rider wrote: post #3

Has it really slowed, or just been putting out shady statistics for a while that show growth that isn't there?

The article points to less easily faked data to indicate the slowdown, not the official statistics that are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#7

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Fri, Dec 14, 2018, 8:15 PM UTC

rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

This is actually pretty genius. Perhaps the Chinese economy is recession-proof. But I doubt it. It's at the height of a 30-year bull market. It doesn't seem insane that a downturn could happen.

And the party seems to be pretty weak when the Chinese economy isn't doing swimmingly. If things finally do turn sour, what a convenient time. You can just blame it on someone else.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#8

Post by coldtea » Fri, Dec 14, 2018, 8:16 PM UTC

volkl48 wrote: post #6

barrow-rider wrote: post #3

Has it really slowed, or just been putting out shady statistics for a while that show growth that isn't there?

The article points to less easily faked data to indicate the slowdown, not the official statistics that are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality.

>are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality

So, like the New York Times?

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#9

Post by NicoJuicy » Fri, Dec 14, 2018, 8:16 PM UTC

rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

I have my sincere doubts about this.

China always had a requirement to grow 6% for every city. So I believe some numbers are inflated ( mostly about real estate eg. Ghost cities, ..). This doesn't give many issues, because there is actual growth.

The reasoning goes that when the growth slows, the entire pyramid goes crumbling down ( debts).

As weird as it is, I think it's an objective overview of everything China related. It's a personal hunch of all the FOMO I read about China and can't support it with links.

The reasoning I follow is: expansion internally (China), expansion externally ( requirement) with Africa / one road one belt, knocking down on bank fraud, no export of money internationally, ... In the process, trying to become too big too fail.

We'll see if I'm right about this.

Ps. I could be wrong, so comments are appreciated

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#10

Post by anoncoward111 » Fri, Dec 14, 2018, 8:19 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #4

And that is assuming that the previous and present day reporting are correct.

That's definitely an issue, but I would like to add that many of us feel the US govt too engages in lying through data.

The biggest one in my mind is the unemployment rate. Even though Labor publishes nuanced statistics and revises them for accuracy, Trump and the media focus solely on the lowest tier of unemployment rate, which is the one below 4%.

To be included in this rate, you must currently be receiving unemployment benefits from the state. Additionally, you must not be working part time at all, such as someone who drives uber for a few hours a week, or someone who picks up minimum wage shifts as a cashier or waiter. Lastly, you must submit weekly reports (through an imho easy to use online portal) of where you applied for jobs. You also cannot be in university, or living abroad (except Canada).

These hurdles are enough to remove literal millions of people from the official unemployment stat vis a vis the workforce participation stat. And yet, the incessant focus on Unemployment Rate probably won't stop.