If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
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Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
#2Using numbers for probabilities is not a panacea either, when those numbers are not the result of a calculation. One person might say "99% of the time" to mean "almost always", and another person might say "9 out of 10 times" to mean exactly the same thing.
The problem is that it's hard to estimate the probability of something that you know happens "almost always" without doing the counting, which most people don't do. And hence it's difficult to gain an intuition for what 99% means exactly.
Furthermore, there is also the possibility that two people share the same intuition about a given word/phrase, but then disagree about which number describes that intuition. This could account for part of the results of this paper.
Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
#3When have this type of imprecise (sometimes subjective) verbiage in our legal standards:
1. Beyond a reasonable doubt
2. Perponderance of the evidence (“more likely than not”, which in theory is >50%)
3. Clear and convincing (which is somewhere in between the 2 above)
Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
#4Follow up study: when someone says something happens “90% of the time”, how likely do they think it is?
Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
#5Aren't all adjectives relative and therefore arguable?
It's amazing how often they're used in debates or political speech (ex. good, bad, strong, important, dangerous, etc.) when they clearly mean different things to different people, but maybe that's the idea.
Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
#6That impreciseness is one reason why William Zinsser in his book, On Writing Well, argues:
- "Get rid of the adjective-by-habit."
- "Don't hedge your prose with little timidities. Good writing is lean and confident."
Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
#7Aren't all adjectives relative and therefore arguable? It's amazing how often they're used in debates or political speech (ex. good, bad, strong, important, dangerous, etc.) when they clearly mean different things to different people, but maybe that's the idea.
Indeed, this is why the best communicators lean heavily on adverbs and pay careful attention to what adjectives make sense for the audience.
Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
#8Aren't all adjectives relative and therefore arguable? It's amazing how often they're used in debates or political speech (ex. good, bad, strong, important, dangerous, etc.) when they clearly mean different things to different people, but maybe that's the idea.
I do think it's the idea, a lot of the time. On the other hand I suspect a lot of people do it without being aware.
There's only so much accuracy you can squeeze into a sentence - some people don't notice, some take advantage, some try to teach others to keep an ear out for this exact problem.
Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
#9Using numbers for probabilities is not a panacea either, when those numbers are not the result of a calculation. One person might say "99% of the time" to mean "almost always", and another person might say "9 out of 10 times" to mean exactly the same thing. The problem is that it's hard to estimate the probability of something that you know happens "almost always" without doing the counting, which most people don't d…
Worse, many people that say "almost always" really just mean "I notice it when it happens, not when it doesn't."
Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
#10>When you use a word to describe the likelihood of a probabilistic outcome, you have a lot of wiggle room to make yourself look good after the fact. If a predicted event happens, one might declare: “I told you it would probably happen.” If it doesn’t happen, the fallback might be: “I only said it would probably happen.”
The same is true with numbers. If a predicted event happens, one might declare: "I told you there 80 percent that will happen". If it dosen't happen, the fallback might be: "I told you there are 20 percent it will not happen."