SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
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Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
#2It doesn't seem to be the sort of thing that even has a chance of being profitable... The only reason to join is to save money on tickets, the only way they make money is if people spend more on membership fees than the tickets they buy.
Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
#3That filing did hurt, the stock's gone from 1.35 at the open to 0.94 cents now. Heck the short sale rule is in effect for them now.
Now they have to convince their customers to use the service less, while trying to increase the number of subscribers they get reoccurring revenue from .
That's an almost sisyphean task.
Even harder will be convincing one of the chains to buy them.
I'm guessing that if we don't see an announcement of a sale to one of the movie theater chains in the next week they'll end up bankrupt and one of hte major theater chains will by at least their data at that point.
How do you go about convincing a company to buy you when they know that you'll be there in bankruptcy court to buy at a cheaper price.
Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
#4It doesn't seem to be the sort of thing that even has a chance of being profitable... The only reason to join is to save money on tickets, the only way they make money is if people spend more on membership fees than the tickets they buy.
Yeah, I wonder what the people who started the business even had in mind. Did they decide to just wing it long term?
Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
#5It doesn't seem to be the sort of thing that even has a chance of being profitable... The only reason to join is to save money on tickets, the only way they make money is if people spend more on membership fees than the tickets they buy.
I could easily imagine myself signing up for a service like this and then forgetting about it for a month or two at a time.
Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
#6It doesn't seem to be the sort of thing that even has a chance of being profitable... The only reason to join is to save money on tickets, the only way they make money is if people spend more on membership fees than the tickets they buy.
Well the company had vague promises of utilizing the vast subscriber base and information to sell to third parties.
As an amateur stock picker, I've been on the sidelines watching the back and forth commentary on this company (Helios and Matheson) and MoviePass since it was (I believe) in the 30's.
It seemed like everyone knew from the get go that the model wasn't going to turn a profit, but they were hoping for some of the other stuff to generate a return somehow (the information being valuable).
The stock price partially is because a Netflix co-founder is behind the company. However, part of me wonders whether it was a pump-and-dump scheme.
Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
#7> When the company changed those rules to limit subscribers so they could only see a given movie once, no matter how long it runs in theaters, a support ticket stated, “we hope this will encourage you to see new movies and enjoy something different!” It turns out that was a blatant effort to cut costs, with today’s filing explaining that the move “enabled us to reduce our cash deficit during the first week of May 2018 by more than 35 [percent].”
> There are a lot of ways to read that percentage, and in MoviePass’ defense, the company has also said that the goal was to prevent people from using MoviePass to buy tickets for friends who aren’t subscribers. But either way, a savings of more than a third represents a radical shift. Couple that with the fact that the most popular movie the first week of May was Avengers: Infinity War, whose astounding box-office performance is driven by repeat visits, and the connection seems clearer — MoviePass is openly trying to save money by limiting features its customers actively use. It isn’t a “test” or an “experiment,” as the company has claimed in the past; it’s intentionally making the subscriptions people have already paid for less useful because its business model is unsustainable.
Getting rid of repeats saving 35% seems to point to some pretty widespread abuse. Who are these people seeing the same movie multiple times during its initial theater run?
Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
#8It doesn't seem to be the sort of thing that even has a chance of being profitable... The only reason to join is to save money on tickets, the only way they make money is if people spend more on membership fees than the tickets they buy.
I feel like they're just waiting to gut the service (4 movies a month, or less) and hoping enough people stick around that they're better off.
Before the price drop they were taking in about $1 million/month (20,000 subs at $50). They're over ~2~ 4 million subscribers now at $10/month.
If they have even a 5% retention rate they'll have increased their revenue to $2 million/month.
Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
#9> When the company changed those rules to limit subscribers so they could only see a given movie once, no matter how long it runs in theaters, a support ticket stated, “we hope this will encourage you to see new movies and enjoy something different!” It turns out that was a blatant effort to cut costs, with today’s filing explaining that the move “enabled us to reduce our cash deficit during the first week of May 201…
I do know people who go to see the latest movies (particularly Marvel ones, Star Wars, etc.) more than once. I imagine MoviePass would only encourage that behavior. (but I agree that abuse probably has something to do with it as well)
Re: SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
#10> When the company changed those rules to limit subscribers so they could only see a given movie once, no matter how long it runs in theaters, a support ticket stated, “we hope this will encourage you to see new movies and enjoy something different!” It turns out that was a blatant effort to cut costs, with today’s filing explaining that the move “enabled us to reduce our cash deficit during the first week of May 201…
"Abuse" is a strong word and the quote you've given addresses this when it says:
> ... whose astounding box-office performance is driven by repeat visits
I think you underestimate how often people will see the same movie.
Getting tickets for your friends for MoviePass is a whole separate issue (and clearly abuse). But is seeing the same movie more than once "abuse"? That's more debatable. But repeat viewings clearly happen.