These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble
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Re: These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble
#2I was expecting "tectonics" and "drought" to be the forces.
Re: These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble
#3When comparing employment and housing in San Francisco to predict future housing prices, I don't think you can consider San Francisco in isolation (like this article does). You need to consider it in terms of the surrounding metro, because a housing boom in Belmont can reduce the demand for houses in San Francisco.
Re: These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble
#4What percentage of SF people work in startups? What percentage of people living in SF work in SF and not a surrounding burb (and v versa)?
Re: These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble
#5What percentage of SF people work in startups? What percentage of people living in SF work in SF and not a surrounding burb (and v versa)?
Not sure who is living in SF unless you have rent control and have been here for a bit.
I live in Fremont ( 45 minute BART ride ) and work in the city. I expect to leave the bay area when my lease is up because I expect the rent to climb to $STUPID
I could afford to live in the city if I was single. Single kids out of college don't make what I make nor would I spend that much on a place to live. Regardless of how much I like the City.
Edit : the rent I have paid in the last 6 years would have paid for a home... nice one in an HOA in most markets ... and my rent is 33% below market
Re: These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble
#6What percentage of SF people work in startups? What percentage of people living in SF work in SF and not a surrounding burb (and v versa)?
Not sure who is living in SF unless you have rent control and have been here for a bit. I live in Fremont ( 45 minute BART ride ) and work in the city. I expect to leave the bay area when my lease is up because I expect the rent to climb to $STUPID I could afford to live in the city if I was single. Single kids out of college don't make what I make nor would I spend that much on a place to live. Regardless of how muc…
Where will you go?
When is your lease up?
>"I could afford to live in the city if I was single."
You're married with children?
#hungryfordata
Re: These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble
#7As a counterpoint although the article also mentions Manhattan's alleged drop in condo pricing, one could argue that San Francisco is smaller and therefore more constrained. It's my understanding that much more real-estate in SF is under rent control, so overbuilding is also less likely. And if Vancouver is any indication there still seems to be plenty of money interested in real estate coming out of China.
Re: These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble
#8The city doesn't have enough room to add many more jobs. This is like saying a restaurant that fills its tables every night must be in a bubble because it hasn't grown past its capacity. Right? (Not saying it shouldn't have more room (building). But as a descriptive matter...)
Re: These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble
#9"And this crushed the SF housing market."
As far as I know even in the previous dotcom burst the housing market went down just a little, something around 10%. In some neighborhoods rents have been increasing more than that per year in the last 3 years. So even if there is a tech burst the size of the 2000 dotcom burst, I don't expect real estate prices to suffer that much.
edit: here is a good analysis; http://www.paragon-re.com/3_Recessions_2_Bubbles_and_a_Baby
Re: These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure who is living in SF unless you have rent control and have been here for a bit. I live in Fremont ( 45 minute BART ride ) and work in the city. I expect to leave the bay area when my lease is up because I expect the rent to climb to $STUPID I could afford to live in the city if I was single. Single kids out of college don't make what I make nor would I spend that much on a place to live. Regardless of how muc…
Where will you go? When is your lease up? >"I could afford to live in the city if I was single." You're married with children? #hungryfordata
I like Phoenix
October
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