Destruction of large numbers of jobs by robots unlikely, says new OECD Study
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Re: Destruction of large numbers of jobs by robots unlikely, says new OECD Study
#2OECD deemed wrong. Replaced by robots.
Re: Destruction of large numbers of jobs by robots unlikely, says new OECD Study
#3The most imminent threat to jobs that I can identify is drivers. Taxi's, trucks, delivery vehicles and buses.
We can see rapid improvement of self-driving technology. For sure, tech moves into mainstream more slowly than we generally imagine it will, but the sheer numbers of persons who could be displaced make even a relatively protracted implementation a big problem. Drive through Mountain View, Ca. on any given day and you'll see multiple Google autonomous vehicles. Uber, Apple, Tesla, GM, Volvo, .. most major auto companies, some minor companies and even non-auto companies are working on it with a high level of focus.
Two aspects of this movement may inhibit widespread deployment and slow the rate of robotic vehicles subsuming human jobs:
- The pace of legislation and the attending regulatory infrastructure. Governments are cooperating for the most part, likely attracted by the prospect of safer transportation in general. So I think this will not materially delay the roll out.
- The dilution of talent as these efforts compete for technologists may slow the progress of all of them, unless individual engineering leaders can attract and retain the top people.
The numbers look like this (2014), [1], [2], [3], [4]:
233,700 Taxi
665,000 Bus
1,797,700 Semi/Tractor-Trailer
1,330,000 Delivery
In 2014, that was roughly 4 million people who make a living driving. And the 2 most valuable companies in the world, Google and Apple, are working very hard to put these drivers out of work. What makes it particularly difficult is that these workers are typically uneducated and will have no place to go except minimum wage service jobs. Moreover, many former manufacturing workers took these driving jobs as a downgrade to income. And it looks like they have another target on their back.
Where do they go from here? Speaking for myself, I think the country has a moral obligation to make some accommodation and not just wave our hands a bit and say 'oh, they'll be fine'.
[1] http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/ta...
[2] http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/bu...
[3] http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/he...
[4] http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/de...
Re: Destruction of large numbers of jobs by robots unlikely, says new OECD Study
#4This piece is utter trash founded on baseless assumptions.
>Arntz, et al. argue that the estimated share of “jobs at risk” must not be equated with actual or expected employment losses from technological advances for three reasons.
So in other words, the title is false. Actual employment loss is what is at issue here.
>The utilisation of new technologies is a slow process, due to economic, legal and societal hurdles, so that technological substitution often does not take place as expected.
The first ridiculous assertion. Jobs wont be destroyed because it will take a long time to destroy them!
>Even if new technologies are introduced, workers can adjust to changing technological endowments by switching tasks, thus preventing technological unemployment.
Asinine assertion #2. People will just get new jobs when robots take their jobs! (of course what new jobs will be available is left unsaid).
>Technological change also generates additional jobs through demand for new technologies and through higher competitiveness.
Asinine assertion #3, virtually the same as #2. What new jobs will be created by the automated vehicles that put tens of millions of drivers out of work?
This article reads very much like the tripe offered by those who continue to argue that NAFTA and related "free trade deals" are actually good for workers.
Re: Destruction of large numbers of jobs by robots unlikely, says new OECD Study
#5Hm. The subtitle is "Destruction of large numbers of jobs unlikely, says new OECD Study", but the very first table gives a list of percent of jobs automatable by country. It ranges from 7-12%. That is a HELL of a lot of jobs. The argument is, "have no fear! it won't be 47% of jobs automated!" -- only 10%. 10% job loss is a labor crisis. Of course if you have all of those retrainable as other jobs (including automation supervisor) then maybe it won't be too bad, but that seems pretty unlikely and this article doesn't exactly quell concerns.
Re: Destruction of large numbers of jobs by robots unlikely, says new OECD Study
#6Find it entertaining that a GLM is the best method to detect whether a job or job class is at risk.
Re: Destruction of large numbers of jobs by robots unlikely, says new OECD Study
#7I'd say it's inevitable. The actual important question is when.
Re: Destruction of large numbers of jobs by robots unlikely, says new OECD Study
#8Let's see if a deep learning system outperforms OECD economists on this question.
Re: Destruction of large numbers of jobs by robots unlikely, says new OECD Study
#9Actual OECD study: [1]
The study says that, for the US, 9% of people are at "high risk" of automated out of a job. (That probably means "replaceable right now".) But 38% of people are potentially replaceable.
There's an assumption in the OECD report that the entire job of a human must be replaced. But that's not how automation works. We're seeing this in the more advanced law firms. What used to take a senior attorney, a few junior attorneys, a large number of paralegals, and a big clerical staff can now be done by one attorney, one paralegal, and a lot of software and databases. The OECD study claims that the risk to people with high levels of education is almost nil. Ask any newly graduated lawyer trying to get a job.
That's the fundamental flaw in this study - it assumes one for one replacement. What really happens is that the workflow is restructured so that fewer people and more hardware are involved.
[1] http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/5jlz9h56dvq7...
Re: Destruction of large numbers of jobs by robots unlikely, says new OECD Study
#10Find it entertaining that a GLM is the best method to detect whether a job or job class is at risk.
GLM (global free market) having not read the article ... but the risk of job loss to automation is even more dire in those GLM labor countries. We have already seen jobs migrate from US -> China -> Vietnam -> Sudan. And each step the level of automation increases. Everything that happens in Japan will happen to the rest of the world at some point. Japan is the Canary.
The world has already passed peak job. Our task as programmer has always been to automate everything, including ourselves.
Someone will soon build a totally modular, reconfigurable intelligent factory. An autofac, power and raw materials go in and anything and everything comes out the other side. For large classes of goods, this is an engineering problem, not a science problem.