Cheap Solar Power
keith.seas.harvard.edu
Cheap Solar Power
1–10 of 101 posts
Re: Cheap Solar Power
#2"Admits" seems a bit harsh, like he was doing his best to hide something from the world.
By all accounts, it looks like he had written out a reasonable explanation as to why he predicted solar would not become cost effective. At the end of the day, if something doesn't make financial sense, it won't last long without subsidies from the government.
The assumptions behind his predictions changed and therefore so did the conclusion. Seems pretty reasonable.
Like he says, solar power's intermittency is still an issue in non-sunny places, but in areas with lots of sunlight, the landscape of power generation is changing for the better.
Re: Cheap Solar Power
#3"Admits" seems a bit harsh, like he was doing his best to hide something from the world. By all accounts, it looks like he had written out a reasonable explanation as to why he predicted solar would not become cost effective. At the end of the day, if something doesn't make financial sense, it won't last long without subsidies from the government. The assumptions behind his predictions changed and therefore so did th…
I particularly liked his point about bringing processes with a high electricity demand to those areas and cutting down on cost across the board. He gives aluminum, ammonia, and desalination as examples, which could do a lot for reducing costs of production while still overall "greening" the process. If they can take advantage of the cycling in prices, I can see regions like the American Southwest selling this as a business incentive.
Re: Cheap Solar Power
#4"Admits" seems a bit harsh, like he was doing his best to hide something from the world. By all accounts, it looks like he had written out a reasonable explanation as to why he predicted solar would not become cost effective. At the end of the day, if something doesn't make financial sense, it won't last long without subsidies from the government. The assumptions behind his predictions changed and therefore so did th…
I particularly liked his point about bringing processes with a high electricity demand to those areas and cutting down on cost across the board. He gives aluminum, ammonia, and desalination as examples, which could do a lot for reducing costs of production while still overall "greening" the process. If they can take advantage of the cycling in prices, I can see regions like the American Southwest selling this as a bu…
It's not a novel idea. E.g., Dubai produces a lot of aluminum, since importing ore and exporting Al is cheaper than exporting natural gas.
Re: Cheap Solar Power
#5"Admits" seems a bit harsh, like he was doing his best to hide something from the world. By all accounts, it looks like he had written out a reasonable explanation as to why he predicted solar would not become cost effective. At the end of the day, if something doesn't make financial sense, it won't last long without subsidies from the government. The assumptions behind his predictions changed and therefore so did th…
I particularly liked his point about bringing processes with a high electricity demand to those areas and cutting down on cost across the board. He gives aluminum, ammonia, and desalination as examples, which could do a lot for reducing costs of production while still overall "greening" the process. If they can take advantage of the cycling in prices, I can see regions like the American Southwest selling this as a bu…
The transportation fuels example is even more exciting, IMO. Transportation fuels are basically simple hydrocarbons that burn with oxygen to turn into CO2 and H2O. There's only engineering, capital, and energy costs that need to be overcome - then we can run that process in reverse and turning our current transportation infrastructure carbon-neutral.
Re: Cheap Solar Power
#6"Admits" seems a bit harsh, like he was doing his best to hide something from the world. By all accounts, it looks like he had written out a reasonable explanation as to why he predicted solar would not become cost effective. At the end of the day, if something doesn't make financial sense, it won't last long without subsidies from the government. The assumptions behind his predictions changed and therefore so did th…
Or maybe it was just another case of blindness to exponential growth curves and the law of accelerated returns. Many thought solar is inevitable, even when most were skeptical. Just like many thought the same about EVs (although it's becoming trendier to believe in EVs now, too, especially in light of Model 3's pre-orders, but it wasn't always the case).
Imagine if the founders of Solar City also thought like this guy. Suffice to say they probably wouldn't be owning one of the largest US solar companies in the US right now.
Re: Cheap Solar Power
#7Wind and geothermal is good options as well. The biggest problem is storage.
Re: Cheap Solar Power
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
I particularly liked his point about bringing processes with a high electricity demand to those areas and cutting down on cost across the board. He gives aluminum, ammonia, and desalination as examples, which could do a lot for reducing costs of production while still overall "greening" the process. If they can take advantage of the cycling in prices, I can see regions like the American Southwest selling this as a bu…
The transportation fuels example is even more exciting, IMO. Transportation fuels are basically simple hydrocarbons that burn with oxygen to turn into CO2 and H2O. There's only engineering, capital, and energy costs that need to be overcome - then we can run that process in reverse and turning our current transportation infrastructure carbon-neutral.
> run the process in reverse
Does the fact that CO2 makes up a very small portion of the atmosphere make this hard?
Re: Cheap Solar Power
#9Wind and geothermal is good options as well. The biggest problem is storage.
A big problem with wind energy in Germany is a very vocal minority of old people who think that wind park visually destructs nature and it looks horrible.
Personally I think wind parks look awesome but there is a lot of opposition.
Re: Cheap Solar Power
#10"Admits" seems a bit harsh, like he was doing his best to hide something from the world. By all accounts, it looks like he had written out a reasonable explanation as to why he predicted solar would not become cost effective. At the end of the day, if something doesn't make financial sense, it won't last long without subsidies from the government. The assumptions behind his predictions changed and therefore so did th…
Or maybe it was just another case of blindness to exponential growth curves and the law of accelerated returns. Many thought solar is inevitable, even when most were skeptical. Just like many thought the same about EVs (although it's becoming trendier to believe in EVs now, too, especially in light of Model 3's pre-orders, but it wasn't always the case). Imagine if the founders of Solar City also thought like this gu…
"Imagine if the founders of Solar City also thought like this guy. Suffice to say they probably wouldn't be owning one of the largest US solar companies in the US right now."
Solar City did think like that guy. Solar City is heavily dependent on subsidies and the ability to sell power to utilities at retail, not wholesale, rates. Solar City pulled out of Nevada when Nevada took away some of those benefits.[1] Their business model requires subsidies.
The big utility-scale plants are now profitable at wholesale rates. Even in Nevada.[2] That's what matters.
[1] http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2016/01/sol... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copper_Mountain_Solar_Facility