The Refragmentation

#1

Post by urs » Sat, Jan 02, 2016, 5:21 PM UTC

The Refragmentation
paulgraham.com

Re: The Refragmentation

#2

Post by kenjackson » Sat, Jan 02, 2016, 5:45 PM UTC

A tldr on this one would actually be appreciated. :-)

Re: The Refragmentation

#3

Post by rsync » Sat, Jan 02, 2016, 5:46 PM UTC

"Obviously the spread of computing power was a precondition for the rise of startups."

If you live in San Francisco (or are visiting) you can visit the USS Pampanito - a retired WWII submarine.[1]

One thing I think you will notice is the manufacturers plaques attached to every little piece of equipment in the submarine ... every one of them the plaque of some tiny little supplier that you have never heard of. Some little Detroit Turbine Supply Company or American Radio Corporation of Maryland ...

Seriously - every single component has a label on it from a firm you have never, ever heard of.

I guess I don't have a deep knowledge of military procurement and supply circa 1942 (or whenever) but it sure looks like startups to me ...

[1] http://www.maritime.org/tour/index.php

Re: The Refragmentation

#4

Post by venomsnake » Sat, Jan 02, 2016, 5:46 PM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #2

A tldr on this one would actually be appreciated. :-)

And they are made out of tiki taki and they all look just the same was a historic fluke.

Re: The Refragmentation

#5

Post by harryh » Sat, Jan 02, 2016, 5:52 PM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #2

A tldr on this one would actually be appreciated. :-)

Some unusual forces caused a temporary change in the US during the 20th century that pushed us towards equality and conformity, but these forces have largely eroded and we can expect greater fragmentation moving forward.

Re: The Refragmentation

#6

Post by rsync » Sat, Jan 02, 2016, 5:53 PM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #2

A tldr on this one would actually be appreciated. :-)

I think you could start here:

"By no coincidence it was in the early 1980s that the term "yuppie" was coined."

... and then read the remaining 15 or so paragraphs - that gets you the whole gist.

Re: The Refragmentation

#7

Post by cronjobber » Sat, Jan 02, 2016, 5:54 PM UTC

He takes the easy way out on the war theory: It would be awful, of course, so let's not think about it.

But think about it. Would historical WWII be possible in today's United States? Introduce the draft and send current US population off to die in Europe? I think you'd see intense levels of political resistance, draft dodging and desertion in the field. Fragmentation means you probably can't unite the whole country to die for... whatever anymore.

Re: The Refragmentation

#8

Post by kelukelugames » Sat, Jan 02, 2016, 5:55 PM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #2

A tldr on this one would actually be appreciated. :-)

World War 2 and large companies like GE and IBM kept everyone the same.

Re: The Refragmentation

#9

Post by sfk » Sat, Jan 02, 2016, 5:58 PM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #2

A tldr on this one would actually be appreciated. :-)

WWII had a cohesive effect on the American society and economy that lasted approximately until the 1980s. The results were more equality and less fragmentation during that period.

Since the 1980s technological progress and also social factors brought an ever increasing re-fragmentation, which, if not properly addressed, might lead to problems soon.

Acknowledging these problems is remarkable -- I think it's the first time pg did that.

Re: The Refragmentation

#10

Post by harryh » Sat, Jan 02, 2016, 5:58 PM UTC

This essay is excellent, but I wonder a bit about the fact that it focused on the US only. On a global scale I think that experiences are continuing to compress and will continue to do so for at least a few generations.

If this is true, does it invalidate pg's overall thesis? I'm not sure. Interesting to think about though.