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Are ML and Statistics Complementary? [pdf]

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Re: Are ML and Statistics Complementary? [pdf]

#2
They definitely are as far as their roles at (most) startups are concerned.

Unless your startup's core strategy involves machine learning, statistics tends to come handier than machine learning in the early days. Most likely, what moves your company is not a data product built atop machine learning models but the ability to draw less wrong conclusions from your data, which is the very definition of statistics. Also, in the early days of a startup, you experience small/missing data problems: You have very few customers, very incomplete datasets with a lot of gotchas. Interpreting such bad data is no small feat, but it's definitely different from training your Random Forest model against millions of observations.

Re: Are ML and Statistics Complementary? [pdf]

#6
I think they will eventually converge.

Probabilistic programming is already a hint of this. The most general class of probability distributions is that of non-deterministic programs. ML is just a quick and dirty way to write these programs.

Re: Are ML and Statistics Complementary? [pdf]

#7
I think feasibility to get an explanation for the results of modern machine learning is wishful thinking. I personally cannot explain my gut feelings. So why should we expect an explanation when machine deals with the same class of problems?

Besides, it is easy to get wrong explanation and, as Vladimir Vapnik in his 3 metaphors for complex world observed, http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/users/esqn/windsor04/handouts/vap... , "actions based on your understanding of God’s thoughts can bring you to catastrophe".

Re: Are ML and Statistics Complementary? [pdf]

#8
What is commonly understood as 'statistics' is just a specialized subset of machine learning. Machine learning generalizes statistics.

The correct complement to machine learning is cryptography -- trying to intentionally build things that are provably intractable to reverse engineer.

Re: Are ML and Statistics Complementary? [pdf]

#9
post #7

I think feasibility to get an explanation for the results of modern machine learning is wishful thinking. I personally cannot explain my gut feelings. So why should we expect an explanation when machine deals with the same class of problems? Besides, it is easy to get wrong explanation and, as Vladimir Vapnik in his 3 metaphors for complex world observed, http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/users/esqn/windsor04/handouts/vap..…

I hear what you're saying, but in terms of usefulness for business decisions, what leaders at a company would be satisfied with someone providing Vapnik's quote? Certainly machine learning and statistics have applications outside of business, but when it comes to realities in industry settings, very often an explanation of results is necessary, in addition to an explanation of why a particular machine learning approach is best for solving a given problem, how it works to solve the problem, etc.

Re: Are ML and Statistics Complementary? [pdf]

#10
post #7

I think feasibility to get an explanation for the results of modern machine learning is wishful thinking. I personally cannot explain my gut feelings. So why should we expect an explanation when machine deals with the same class of problems? Besides, it is easy to get wrong explanation and, as Vladimir Vapnik in his 3 metaphors for complex world observed, http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/users/esqn/windsor04/handouts/vap..…

As we start to use AI/ML for more tasks, the need for model interpretability rises. We expect doctors to explain their gut feelings, much like we expect computer vision models that detect disease to explain their findings and have a (theoretically sound) estimate of confidence.

SVM's were so popular, pretty much because they had a firm theoretical basis on which they were designed (or "cute math" as deep learners may call it). As Patrick Winston would ask his students (paraphrasing): "Did God really meant it this way, or did humans create it, because it was useful to them?". Except maybe for the LSTM, deep learning models are not God-given. We use them because, in practice, they beat other modeling techniques. Now we need to find the theoretical grounding to explain why they work so well, and allow for better model interpretability, so these models can more readily be deployed in health care and under regulation.

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