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Theranos Founder Faces a Test of Technology, and Reputation

nytimes.com

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Re: Theranos Founder Faces a Test of Technology, and Reputation

#2
The Washington Post's article about Thernos and the DoD was probably the most interesting thing published about them since the original WSJ articles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/02/inter...

I found General Mattis joining their board, after supporting them within the DoD over internal objections, to be particularly interesting.

Re: Theranos Founder Faces a Test of Technology, and Reputation

#4
They [former employees] say she [founder, Elizabeth Holmes] would become angry and sometimes fire people who pointed out problems. She often spoke as though the company’s technology already existed, they said, rather than as if it were still in development.

Funny how that works. I'm just getting into the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Tetlock and Gardner and came across this passage:

Galen is an extreme example but he is the sort of figure who pops up repeatedly in the history of medicine. They are men (always men) of strong convinction and profound trust in their own judgement. They embrace treaments, develop bold theories for why they work, denounce rivals as quacks and charlatans, and spread their insights with evangelical passion.

So even if Theranos is a complete flop, Holmes may still prove a groundbreaker in her hubris. Tetlock and Gardner sum up the problem by quoting Richard Feynman:

What medicine lacked was doubt. "Doubt is not a fearful thing," Feynman observed, "but a thing of very great value." It's what propels science forward.

Less so, I guess, visionary entrepreneurs.

Re: Theranos Founder Faces a Test of Technology, and Reputation

#5
> Ms. Holmes said that she needed secrecy to keep others from stealing her ideas, but several former employees say that Ms. Holmes’s steely focus on her mission — an attribute deeply admired by outsiders — made it difficult for her to acknowledge any serious shortcomings in the company’s products. They say she would become angry and sometimes fire people who pointed out problems. She often spoke as though the company’s technology already existed, they said, rather than as if it were still in development.

This seems a little unfair to Holmes. In this one paragraph, anonymous former employees paint Holmes as a megalomaniac -- e.g. she fires people "who pointed out problems" and lies about the existence of technology. She may very well be a megalomaniac, but these assertions should at least have vague anecdotes ("A former employee recalls a 2008 incident in which Holmes fired a senior engineer in a Reply-All email after he replied that he didn't think the machine could be finished on deadline."). The judgment of what is simply pointing out a problem is sometimes context dependent. And nothing else in the story mentions other proof that would affirm that Holmes is a power-freak when it comes to being the CEO. Yes, there are plenty of anecdotes of her being headstrong in negotiations and attempting projects and deals that went nowhere, but that's a different thing than being a vindictive charlatan among her own employees. The NYT sat down with her for a 2.5 hour interview and could have at least confronted her with this and given her a chance to deny it. In contrast, the WSJ, who couldn't score an interview, had actual anecdotes [0] (the hearsay of one of Theranos's chief engineers, who had claimed the technology was a fraud before committing suicide, and emails about fudging the FDA tests).

The parts about her pre-Theranos life were similar to the New Yorker's story from last year [1]...it sounds like she was the real deal in terms of being a passionate engineering student. It makes me wonder if she had spent at least a couple more years beefing up not just her engineering experience, but life experience, that some of the poor CEO decisions she's made would have been mitigated.

[0] http://www.wsj.com/articles/theranos-has-struggled-with-bloo...

[1] http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/12/15/blood-simpler

Re: Theranos Founder Faces a Test of Technology, and Reputation

#7
The idea of rapid disruption in the healthcare industry makes me uncomfortable for some reason. I admire Holmes's ambition and in interviews I've watched she seems competent and well guided but something just doesn't seem to add up.

How was a college dropout able to get a break in the healthcare sector? Becoming a doctor requires years of education and training and along comes this young woman who just decides "I'm going to change all of this." What? I don't understand how a person with no experience, no vetting, no medical training, no engineering training, and frankly a product that I find to be of questionable value ends up getting millions in funding and at the head of a multibillion dollar company.

Perhaps I just don't understand the phobia that some people have around blood tests but it is my understanding that you get a blood test as a way to gauge your health, not because it makes you feel nice. The hold up doesn't seem to be that tons of people are afraid of needles otherwise they would be getting tested all the time. The hold up to people getting blood tests all the time is that doctors don't order them, presumably because doctors don't think people need them. As long as the test isn't extremely uncomfortable for the patient, I would think that accuracy is really the only measure of quality for a test and it seems to me that they are willing to sacrifice accuracy in favor of making people feel comfortable.

Also, why would I ever get a blood test at a grocery store? Why would I ever trust some random employee at a food store to respect my privacy and be medically competent enough to administer a test like that. What exactly do I have to gain by getting one in the first place?

Correct me if I'm wrong on any of this because this is just my viewpoint as an outsider. I would however never get a blood test from Theranos and if I wanted one I would call my practitioner and have them administer one at a doctor's office, not at the local grocery store.

Re: Theranos Founder Faces a Test of Technology, and Reputation

#10
post #7

The idea of rapid disruption in the healthcare industry makes me uncomfortable for some reason. I admire Holmes's ambition and in interviews I've watched she seems competent and well guided but something just doesn't seem to add up. How was a college dropout able to get a break in the healthcare sector? Becoming a doctor requires years of education and training and along comes this young woman who just decides "I'm g…

Becoming a doctor requires years of education and training and along comes this young woman who just decides "I'm going to change all of this."

You don't need to be a doctor to hire doctors. Aren't startups supposed to be all about this kind of disruption by outsiders? People who come along and decide "I'm going to change all of this"?

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