Russia and the Curse of Geography

Russia and the Curse of Geography
theatlantic.com

For example it states that Kievan Rus was Russian predecesor state, "in what is now Ukraine".

It's like saying Roman Empire was a French predecessor state in what is now Italy. Not the whole story.

Not that it matters much, but it's one of the constantly repeated points of Russian propaganda - that Ukraine is a temporary state with no history.

And considering the defense as explanation for military conquests of Russia - which country in the west was supposed to invade Russia through Ukraine? Eastern EU and NATO members, with no power to do that by themselves, no nuclear detterent, much smaller military budgets, and no territorial demands in Russia?

I propose different explanation: Russia is governed by Putin for over a decade, he promised "prosperity instead of freedom", and delivered till 2013, mostly thanks to high oil prices. Ukraine was always portraited by Russia as "almost Russia", and Ukrainians started revolutions to win "freedom and prosperity" through eventual accession to EU.

Putin couldn't allow that to success, because if that is possible in Ukraine - it's possible in Russia. Few years ago there were big demonstrations against Putin in Moscow and St. Petersburg after another flawed elections (famous 140+% of votes in some districts :) ).

As long as Ukraine is an enemy, and is in crisis - no risk of Russians doing Majdan in Moscow.

As for your first point about Kievian rus being Russia: I think it's different as up to the communist revolution, peasants in Russia had almost no idea of the change of powers and many didn't even know the language they spoke was called. Most identified through Russian orthodox instead. The same kind of hold true today. I believe that if you asked most people in Russia, Ukraine (except I think modern day Ukraine would answer different than 30 years ago) they would say they are directly descended from the Kievian rus empire. I don't think that's the case with Rome and that is what makes it different. In the long term history of Russia, the current Ukraine is a small blip and Russia views itself as a thousand year old empire and wants to last another 1000 years so a decade or two of unrest is nothing it took nearly 40 years of mass starvation and hunger before the communist revolution overthrew the czar. As long as people are fed the aren't going to do anything.

But what they are doing is still pretty shitty.

http://www.colorado.edu/geography/class_homepages/geog_4892_...

Is the Atlantic blatantly ripping off stratfor these days?

There is an unquantifiable property that Russia holds dear. It can take the blows and as long as people have jobs and are fed, most are content with the life they have and unless the money comes from a Russian source (natural resources or something else), they fear that it will destroy their culture.