Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Years You Have Left to Live, Probably

flowingdata.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

1–10 of 90 posts

Re: Years You Have Left to Live, Probably

#3

Post by pedalpete »

Nice UX, but the probability is probably wrong.

I am in my 40s, so I'll give the current life expectancy stats about a 50% chance of being valid by the time I reach the age to die.

But somebody who is 10 today, will likely have a life expectancy much longer than the 80 yeas. The entire curve will be pushed out. So for that person, I'd guess the probability of this being correct is closer to 10%.

Re: Years You Have Left to Live, Probably

#4

Post by Zirro »

I believe that we will see significant advances in lifespan-increasing research over the next hundred years, barring any major disasters affecting humanity. Old models and expectations for calculating death can no longer be relied upon.

Most of the people alive today will probably (unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your world view) be among the last generations to die from what we currently consider natural causes.

Re: Years You Have Left to Live, Probably

#8

Post by jtemplin »

pedalpete wrote: post #3

Nice UX, but the probability is probably wrong. I am in my 40s, so I'll give the current life expectancy stats about a 50% chance of being valid by the time I reach the age to die. But somebody who is 10 today, will likely have a life expectancy much longer than the 80 yeas. The entire curve will be pushed out. So for that person, I'd guess the probability of this being correct is closer to 10%.

It's very generous to give the current life expectancy stats about a 50% chance of being valid by the time you reach the age to die. If the historical growth rate in life expectancy continues -- or at minimum doesn't go to zero -- there's a 0% chance. Moreover as we witness regularly on HN there are many reasons to believe that the growth rate in longevity will accelerate.

Re: Years You Have Left to Live, Probably

#9

Post by peteretep »

pedalpete wrote: post #3

Nice UX, but the probability is probably wrong. I am in my 40s, so I'll give the current life expectancy stats about a 50% chance of being valid by the time I reach the age to die. But somebody who is 10 today, will likely have a life expectancy much longer than the 80 yeas. The entire curve will be pushed out. So for that person, I'd guess the probability of this being correct is closer to 10%.

    > But somebody who is 10 today, will likely have a life
    > expectancy much longer than the 80 years
Turns out there's a _highly_ developed and mature prediction market for this called life insurance, and they disagree with your assessment.

Re: Years You Have Left to Live, Probably

#10

Post by onion2k »

Zirro wrote: post #4

I believe that we will see significant advances in lifespan-increasing research over the next hundred years, barring any major disasters affecting humanity. Old models and expectations for calculating death can no longer be relied upon. Most of the people alive today will probably (unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your world view) be among the last generations to die from what we currently consider natural…

That may be true, but I'm skeptical. Most of the advances we make are in causes of death that would lead you to die before you're at an advanced age - extending someone's life from 45 to 90 is a matter of stopping them dying from a disease or a cancer. Extending life from 90 to 100 is a matter of mitigating ageing processes where your body literally can't support itself any more. The two things (curing disease versus curing aging) are two very different realms of medicine. We've made a lot more progress in the former than the latter.

I don't doubt that it will happen, but I do doubt the timescales involved. Possibly children alive today will benefit from these advances, but 'most people alive today' seems unlikely.

Post reply on HN