For me a good way to visualize it is, you get given a key. It works on exactly one of the houses in your entire country, and you get one try (no you cant inspect the lock first and all keys look the same). Good luck trying!
Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
81–90 of 156 posts
Re: Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
#82I think people understand the odds are small. However, perhaps they perceive their chances of meaningfully turn around their life in other ways have even smaller odds. i.e. improbable vs actually impossible. At least the lottery doesn't care about your current circumstance and everyone has an equal (equally small) chance. Secondly, because everyone realizes the chances are small, the real product being sold is Hope.…
I’m at the point where I take it as a red flag when someone doesn’t understand this, and instead bangs on about “low odds” and “the idiots that think that they’ll win”. A combination of superficial booksmarts, a misplaced sense of elitism, and a very real lack of emotional intelligence, that I know that I don’t enjoy being around. There’s definitely a low end on this bell curve, but I think that your average Joe Blow…
It's mainly about showing how low the odds actually are. I think everyone understands they are low but it's ridiculous how low exactly.
Re: Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
#83What people often overlook about lottos is that for a few dollars, you’re buying the chance to dream about a better life. And that dream lasts right up until you check the numbers. That’s the part rational investors tend to miss … the power of dreaming. And I’ll admit it - I play the lottery too, even though I already live a pretty comfortable life.
I play the national lottery in the UK mainly because of the good causes it supports. Athletes competing in the Olympics for Team GB for example receive significant funding from the lottery. I see my ticket as a charity donation with the added fun of an astronomically small chance of winning money.
Re: Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
#84I think people understand the odds are small. However, perhaps they perceive their chances of meaningfully turn around their life in other ways have even smaller odds. i.e. improbable vs actually impossible. At least the lottery doesn't care about your current circumstance and everyone has an equal (equally small) chance. Secondly, because everyone realizes the chances are small, the real product being sold is Hope.…
I've always assumed this was correct in a way.
Humans do a poor job estimating extreme odds. 0% chance or 100% of a high risk/reward event. How many people in rural areas are prepping for a Carrington Event-sized solar flare or nuclear war, but a car accident or cancer diagnosis and resulting medical bills would sooner and statistically more likely to ruin their lives? Many. They see the small chance of survival as being high reward, with low risk.
Likewise, the lure of a 100% chance of life-changing material wealth that takes the low risk of $2 fits the same mold.
Re: Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
#85This is the experience of the lottery for a single person so the chances of winning is low. But lotteries are played by millions. Simulate that experience.
Re: Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
That and they are taxing the poor and under educated who are least likely to complain. Making things explicit such as stamping a “45% Tax” on lottery tickets really changes people’s perception. The Trump administration almost flipped out when Amazon considered explicitly adding tariffs to people’s checkout.
> The Trump administration almost flipped out when Amazon considered explicitly adding tariffs to people’s checkout. I wish they called their bluff and did it as it’d force Amazon to show the country of manufacture.
> it’d force Amazon to show the country of manufacture
I don't think many people would care.
Re: Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
#87I think it would be interesting to have a version where the chosen numbers were the same every time. We all know the odds won't change but there are countless people who play the lottery this way. They have "their" numbers and they never deviate for fear that if they do, that's when "their" numbers would pop up and they'd miss out on the win.
Yes and another that uses a fixed ridiculous combination like 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9. This is my favorite way for bringing the odds nearer to mind.
That would be cool for this website, but don't try it in real life. If you win, it is almost guaranteed that you will share your prize with many other people.
Re: Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
#88I think people understand the odds are small. However, perhaps they perceive their chances of meaningfully turn around their life in other ways have even smaller odds. i.e. improbable vs actually impossible. At least the lottery doesn't care about your current circumstance and everyone has an equal (equally small) chance. Secondly, because everyone realizes the chances are small, the real product being sold is Hope.…
I’m at the point where I take it as a red flag when someone doesn’t understand this, and instead bangs on about “low odds” and “the idiots that think that they’ll win”. A combination of superficial booksmarts, a misplaced sense of elitism, and a very real lack of emotional intelligence, that I know that I don’t enjoy being around. There’s definitely a low end on this bell curve, but I think that your average Joe Blow…
My brother left school after ninth grade and struggles financially — he can’t afford basic health insurance, yet he’ll spend $100 on lottery tickets whenever possible.
I understand the utility he’s purchasing: a temporary sense of hope. What concerns me is the implicit misunderstanding of probability. The difference in expected value between purchasing one ticket and fifty is statistically negligible. This isn’t about elitism — it’s simply about recognizing orders of magnitude and the arithmetic reality of vanishingly small odds.
Re: Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
#89> You are more likely to...get dealt a royal flush in poker on your first hand (1 in 649,740)
This is true but a bit misleading: 99% of people actually playing poker in the US today are playing Texas Hold'em or other variants where "your first hand" contains more than 5 cards and is vastly more likely to have a royal flush. I've had several royal flushes but would not want to think I'm only an order of magnitude or two away from having the luck of a Powerball winner.
Re: Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
What does it mean - adjacent area code? They can’t play anymore?
In the Dutch postcode lottery, they draw a random postcode (roughly a street) and everyone that lives there and has a ticket wins. The wider area code (village level) win smaller prizes. People get FOMO - what if my neighbors become millionaires but I didn't have a ticket? And in this case, some code very close to theirs won. It makes it seem you missed out by a tiny margin.
Seems a clever marketing tactic to rope in more people.
How do you confirm address? ‘I moved home to my parents last week’ etc.