Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading • Hacker News Board

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#71

Post by datadrivenangel » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:54 PM UTC

sunnynagra wrote: post #13

datadrivenangel wrote: post #3

This is fun! What kind of prompts / prompting techniques are you using?

Thanks! I use several key prompting techniques: 1. Role + Goal Setting: The AI acts as a creative market analyst focused on discovering overlooked opportunities and emerging trends. 2. Structured Analysis Framework: - Detailed evaluation criteria (innovation, moat, management, growth potential) - Sector diversity requirements - Focus on finding hidden gems vs obvious mega-cap tech stocks 3. Time-Bound Precision: Inst…

Makes sense. Any thoughts on expanding scope to have multiple 'analyst' roles per LLM model? Could be interesting to see if changing roles/prompts yields better results.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#72

Post by dukeofdoom » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:56 PM UTC

sunnynagra wrote: post #62

ratedgene wrote: post #25

It would be neat to see the process, where they get the data from, how they analyze it. It would be neat to also see another experiment of a MAS doing this and coordinating to gamble together. Perhaps even different system/arch/expert configs.

Data gets pulled from the Alpaca News API in the morning, then it gets sent to all three models. You can see a summary of the prompt used to determine the recommendations here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42560034 It currently makes up to recommendations, since not all stocks support fractional shares (I'm only doing $5 per trade). As part of the buy recommendation, a holding period is suggested as well. Onc…

How does one trade $5 when the stock price is higher? Also what are fees on this kind of trade, and whith whoom

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#73

Post by jfengel » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:56 PM UTC

knallfrosch wrote: post #27

NathanaelRea wrote: post #22

If they just get the financial headlines and indicators, aren't they all just momentum trading from sentiment analysis?

Is anyone doing anything else?

Some alternatives:

* Buy and hold

* Index funds

* Dollar cost averaging

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#74

Post by mattfrommars » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:58 PM UTC

> Node.js/Lambda backend for AI processing

Is this AWS? Why did you pick lambda over say Python code, say in Flask to perform actions?

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#75

Post by byyoung3 » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:58 PM UTC

yapyap wrote: post #39

aredox wrote: post #9

They should have added a pure random bot as a control. Or a monkey.

> Or a monkey. or just a stocktrader haha

lol

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#76

Post by chronic026935 » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 6:00 PM UTC

yapyap wrote: post #39

aredox wrote: post #9

They should have added a pure random bot as a control. Or a monkey.

> Or a monkey. or just a stocktrader haha

> or just a stocktrader haha

Many quant trading firms make 50%-100% annual returns, each year, over the past 15-20 years. The secret is leverage. And they do not accept outside investor money.

Many hedge funds outperform the market. However, the returns after fees, to the passive outside investor underperform S&P500.

But yes, publicly traded active ETFs generally underperform. But counter example is VGT or QQQ, both historically outperformed S&P500.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#77

Post by AmazingTurtle » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 6:01 PM UTC

Combining universal time-series prediction models with latent space global knowledge on realtime information could result in an accurate model prediction on the stockmarket with a bias towards succeeding. https://research.google/blog/a-decoder-only-foundation-model...

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#78

Post by woollysammoth » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 6:03 PM UTC

Sounds like a fun experiment! The overflow-x:hidden on body/html is causing weird issues when scrolling (on FF.)

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#79

Post by HenryBemis » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 6:06 PM UTC

dotancohen wrote: post #24

sunnynagra wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No stocks have been sold yet, so no profit/loss has been calculated, if you look below, you can see the unrealized gains for stocks being held.

I see, thank you. Can they short?

I assume that shorting an asset you don't have may incur extra costs in some brokers. That would skew the results because a Buy would have X fees and a Sell/short would have 5X fees. So on a equal distance/pips movement the Buys would always be more profitable.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#80

Post by vasco » Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 6:08 PM UTC

> Every morning at 5:45 AM PST, three AI models (GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Claude 3 Sonnet) analyze the latest market news and each recommends one stock to trade.

> At 6:00 AM PST, trades are automatically executed based on AI recommendations, investing $5 per trade

The best trading decision most days is to not trade. Outliers and diversions from the mean don't happen every day. This is trading just for the sake of it.

I predict a slow crawl down into zero eaten up by fees.