Interesting twist.
Reminded me a bit of the Quantum Tic Tac Toe[1] game that I stumbled over some time ago.
Show HN: Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
71–80 of 113 posts
Re: Show HN: Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
Agreed that 3D is overkill. I'm fastest at prototyping in Unity though and this was only a couple day project, so I'm unlikely to port it to anything else. Probabilities are mostly randomized during board generation but skewed in a way to make gameplay feel a bit better. There's a cap on the likelihood of the neutral event, and a bias towards the good event rather than a bad one.
Can you please share the specifics? I'm trying to make my own AI for this game, and would like to compare mine against random play to estimate its strength. Also, in your listing of your ai beating the random, how are you counting drawn games?
Why an AI? Just for the fun of implementing it (totally valid, just curious)? Given the probabilities of the outcomes couldn't you just "solve" for the best way to play it based on expected value?
If there are 65% and 50% to complete a row in one direction, and a 35% and 20% in another direction, you don't really need AI to tell you which one would be more advantageous to go after?
Re: Show HN: Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you please share the specifics? I'm trying to make my own AI for this game, and would like to compare mine against random play to estimate its strength. Also, in your listing of your ai beating the random, how are you counting drawn games?
Why an AI? Just for the fun of implementing it (totally valid, just curious)? Given the probabilities of the outcomes couldn't you just "solve" for the best way to play it based on expected value? If there are 65% and 50% to complete a row in one direction, and a 35% and 20% in another direction, you don't really need AI to tell you which one would be more advantageous to go after?
Yes, I've made what is intended to be a perfect solver (Although it in some testing it's clearly making mistakes, so I have some debugging to do yet). I'm making it because I was nerd sniped into thinking through how to handle some of the trickiness with the solving. It's not an AI in the LLM or machine learning sense, but in the previously common use of the term (eg, deep blue), or in the video game sense.
Re: Show HN: Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why an AI? Just for the fun of implementing it (totally valid, just curious)? Given the probabilities of the outcomes couldn't you just "solve" for the best way to play it based on expected value? If there are 65% and 50% to complete a row in one direction, and a 35% and 20% in another direction, you don't really need AI to tell you which one would be more advantageous to go after?
Yes, I've made what is intended to be a perfect solver (Although it in some testing it's clearly making mistakes, so I have some debugging to do yet). I'm making it because I was nerd sniped into thinking through how to handle some of the trickiness with the solving. It's not an AI in the LLM or machine learning sense, but in the previously common use of the term (eg, deep blue), or in the video game sense.
Very cool! Best of luck working on it!
Re: Show HN: Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
#75Reminds me of Quantum Chess
Re: Show HN: Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
#76Harder for humans, but easy to make a really strong AI for this. Even overcounting because of illegal board states (multiple winners) and not even bothering to eliminate symmetries, there are at most 2 * 3^9 = 39366 board states. There are cycles in the board state graph, although they are of a very specific form (the only kind of cycle that exists is for board B with O and X alternating turns). So it is probably pos…
>Harder for humans IDK if it's just me, but I went 6-0. Is something wrong with the computer player logic?
1/64 chance.
What happens if you play 6 more?
Re: Show HN: Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
#77Re: Show HN: Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
you would need different dice for each distribution but you could use a normal d20 and a lookup table for less needed equipment.. I think it could work!
A D20 would be more than enough, you just put the probabilities of the tiles in terms of 20 digits.
I'm saying if you wanted to mimic the happy/meh/sad faces on the die in this game you would need multiple dice. But since all of the percentages are in 5% increments yes a D20 is all you would need. I suggest a lookup table for the players who are uncomfortable or uninterested in doing the percentage division in their head, and the sum of the two lower partitions. But you've got me thinking you could probably also have a run of custom-labeled D20s with increments of 5 instead of 1 to eliminate the LUT.
Re: Show HN: Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's how the AI seems to play it. :)
Yes, the AI mostly just looks for plays that have high certainty and are connected to other potential winning squares (for either team). Then it weights plays positively or negatively based on whether or not the "bad" chance outweighs "good"
I don’t think this is right though. I watched it pick a 70 it didn’t need over a 60 I used to win.
Re: Show HN: Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
#80This is just awesome, great idea. The computer doesn’t seem to defend against obvious, probabilistic winning moves (doesn’t block a final square). But funnily this works to its advantage sometimes if you end up rolling frowny