Now add random periods where Coinbase is offline and you can't move money for +/- 4 days.
Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator
71–80 of 86 posts
Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator
#72A good counter to "I could have made $X bazillion if I'd gotten into Y thing at Z time" is to remember that you could have doubled your money at the horse track yesterday by betting on the right horse at the right time. So the only question is: what's different between Y thing and horse betting? Did you have enough information at Z time to know you should have invested? Or are you just wishing you could have predicte…
The issue is that many of us WeRE present and actively monitoring crypto. Heck I even tried to mine bitcoin back when you had a chance to mine one in your own gpu. I even thought maybe I’ll buy a coin or two; it’s only 20 bucks each! But “better judgement” said that it’s a currency it shouldn’t appreciate so why bother unless you want to actually use it? So if there’s regret it’s because many of us feel almost penali…
The difference between gambling and crypto is in the timelines. Gambling has a high frequency where crypto is quite a bit lower. This allows some lucky people to 'exit the casino' by the virtue of being lucky enough to have won the bet, and being pressured somehow to cash out and not continue gambling. For some, it is a birth of a child, perhaps a purchase decision etc. Low frequency allows for these events to take place, betting on horses does not.
Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
The issue is that many of us WeRE present and actively monitoring crypto. Heck I even tried to mine bitcoin back when you had a chance to mine one in your own gpu. I even thought maybe I’ll buy a coin or two; it’s only 20 bucks each! But “better judgement” said that it’s a currency it shouldn’t appreciate so why bother unless you want to actually use it? So if there’s regret it’s because many of us feel almost penali…
Even if you bought a few bitcoins $20, who’s to say you wouldn’t have sold at $40? Easy to think “what if I bought”, but really, would you have hold it until 50K? Quite unlikely! I don’t know any millionaires from crypto. I know people who are loud when market is up and very silent when it’s down. May be they were millionaires on paper at some point. Highly doubt they sold everything at the right time and became actu…
Yea this is how I try to think about.
I mined a "bunch" back in 2011 or so, lost the hard drive with the keys on it in the years since, didn't really think about backing it up, because of course it's not worth anything, etc, etc.
If I had that drive today, I'd be a millionaire. But also, if I had that drive in 2013, there's absolutely no chance I would have held it. I would have sold it for a few hundred bucks and been elated.
Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
The issue is that many of us WeRE present and actively monitoring crypto. Heck I even tried to mine bitcoin back when you had a chance to mine one in your own gpu. I even thought maybe I’ll buy a coin or two; it’s only 20 bucks each! But “better judgement” said that it’s a currency it shouldn’t appreciate so why bother unless you want to actually use it? So if there’s regret it’s because many of us feel almost penali…
Even if you bought a few bitcoins $20, who’s to say you wouldn’t have sold at $40? Easy to think “what if I bought”, but really, would you have hold it until 50K? Quite unlikely! I don’t know any millionaires from crypto. I know people who are loud when market is up and very silent when it’s down. May be they were millionaires on paper at some point. Highly doubt they sold everything at the right time and became actu…
Exactly, the fact that an assent went from $20 to $20,000 once doesn't tell us much. This is why in financial economics the variable of interest is returns, not price. Statistical analysis of returns will tell us what return to expect if we hold the asset over a random time period of a certain length, which is what happens in practice.
Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator
#75Now add random periods where Coinbase is offline and you can't move money for +/- 4 days.
That's the main reason why I moved away from Coinbase years ago... no problem with Kraken so far. Every time the market moves fast they don't allow you to trade for a long time and they don't give you a reason... unlike the stock market (they frequently halt trading on specific stocks but at least they tell you why).
Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator
#76Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even if you bought a few bitcoins $20, who’s to say you wouldn’t have sold at $40? Easy to think “what if I bought”, but really, would you have hold it until 50K? Quite unlikely! I don’t know any millionaires from crypto. I know people who are loud when market is up and very silent when it’s down. May be they were millionaires on paper at some point. Highly doubt they sold everything at the right time and became actu…
Yea this is how I try to think about. I mined a "bunch" back in 2011 or so, lost the hard drive with the keys on it in the years since, didn't really think about backing it up, because of course it's not worth anything, etc, etc. If I had that drive today, I'd be a millionaire. But also, if I had that drive in 2013, there's absolutely no chance I would have held it. I would have sold it for a few hundred bucks and be…
Same for me. I actually tried to find my wallet in around when it went over a few hundred dollars.
Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator
#78Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even if you bought a few bitcoins $20, who’s to say you wouldn’t have sold at $40? Easy to think “what if I bought”, but really, would you have hold it until 50K? Quite unlikely! I don’t know any millionaires from crypto. I know people who are loud when market is up and very silent when it’s down. May be they were millionaires on paper at some point. Highly doubt they sold everything at the right time and became actu…
Yea this is how I try to think about. I mined a "bunch" back in 2011 or so, lost the hard drive with the keys on it in the years since, didn't really think about backing it up, because of course it's not worth anything, etc, etc. If I had that drive today, I'd be a millionaire. But also, if I had that drive in 2013, there's absolutely no chance I would have held it. I would have sold it for a few hundred bucks and be…
There is so much adaptation overlooked in any thing (item, experience, relationship, etc). becoming a thing of value, and so missing frames of references of this type occur frequently.
A friend got a great job, if I hadn't failed job interview X I would have a great job. Later you find your friend hated that job; your experience of the job you "missed" is unknown, etc. It's also part of survivor bias.
What would it have taken in advance for you to not cash in that early bitcoin that you didn't get (or lost) and didn't expect would become anything? Is that something you can prepare yourself for now? Is it worth preparing?
Deciding you have a financial portfolio, and framing that one part of it is risky, and another part is experimental, and then placing early bitcoin ownership as part of the experimental portion of your financial portfolio, and then later (as it becomes a larger percentage of the total) as part of the risky portion, and then looking for more situations that seem like it could fit this approach could possibly be one takeaway ... but it seems like a stretch.
You also have to avoid patterns that cause long-term failure but are misleading in the short term, such as buying and selling to realize gains, but then repeating ("it worked once") buying and selling until you have an overall loss. Like gamblers do. Sometimes they win, somethings they lose, but they lose overall by not ever stopping.
Also, how do you know someone who seems to have succeeded isn't simply in the "looks like success" portion of long-term failure? How would you avoid it?
Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yup. You nailed it. It's a fad which which most buyers and sellers use as a means to engage in gambling.
Agreed. My friend said to me, "do you believe in cryptocurrency?" I thought to myself no, and sold it. I can see now my motivation was greed and fomo. Neither of which are values I live my life by.
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Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator
#80A good counter to "I could have made $X bazillion if I'd gotten into Y thing at Z time" is to remember that you could have doubled your money at the horse track yesterday by betting on the right horse at the right time. So the only question is: what's different between Y thing and horse betting? Did you have enough information at Z time to know you should have invested? Or are you just wishing you could have predicte…
The issue is that many of us WeRE present and actively monitoring crypto. Heck I even tried to mine bitcoin back when you had a chance to mine one in your own gpu. I even thought maybe I’ll buy a coin or two; it’s only 20 bucks each! But “better judgement” said that it’s a currency it shouldn’t appreciate so why bother unless you want to actually use it? So if there’s regret it’s because many of us feel almost penali…
Isn't that exactly like horse betting
It's like if you see a friend betting a bunch of money on a long-odds horse and then winning. You exercised good judgement, but he won anyway. Do you feel penalized for applying your better judgement in that situation?
The only thing that really matters is: was it the right decision given the information you had at the time?