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Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

shouldhavebought.com

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Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#61

Post by eru »

hsbauauvhabzb wrote: post #54
b0bbi wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are 100% right about survivorship bias. That's actually exactly why the calculator already supports a status "BULLET DODGED"!

Do you account for all the factors of the worldwide market? Because there are certainly more busts then there are crypto level books. The whole pre-tense of your site is flawed by survivorship bias to the point where it has no value, and you suggesting you’ve accounted for that proves that you’re ignorant to economic realities.

> The whole pre-tense of your site is flawed by survivorship bias to the point where it has no value, [...]

As far as I can tell, the site is purely for entertainment.

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#62

Post by eru »

nkrisc wrote: post #21

I first heard about bitcoin sometime in college (2007-2011). At the time I thought about buying a couple just for fun (might have been a few dollars worth? Can’t remember). But I decided it was a waste of money. And at the time, it was a complete waste of money. I don’t regret it at all. Only with knowledge of the future would it have been worthwhile. But today when I see what cryptocurrency has become, I regret my d…

> And at the time, it was a complete waste of money. I don’t regret it at all.

I think, spending 50 bucks on bitcoin back then wouldn't have been a complete waste of money: in the worst case, you could have kept them as a souvenir from a passing fad to tell your grandchildren about. Like pet rocks.

However, I heard about bitcoin around the same time, and even read the whitepaper etc (I'm a mathematician and did some actual cryptography at the time), but still didn't buy any.

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#63

Post by eru »

renewiltord wrote: post #10

Oh good grief. $2.5m. That’s pretty funny. Hard to imagine I would have held through the ride but a pretty penny nonetheless. Not as bad as my buddy who sold his $200k grant in 2017 to buy a San Jose townhome that costs exactly the same today hahaha!

> [...] to buy a San Jose townhome that costs exactly the same today hahaha!

Hopefully he got a stream of housing services / rent from it, though?

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#64

Post by eru »

b0bbi wrote: post #36
intheitmines wrote: post #33

Crudely, if my aunt had a dick she'd be my uncle. In terms of feedback: - need BTC prices pre 2014 to really feel the pain - The date format for earliest date available is different to the date format then used in the input below

You are 100% right about pre-2014 BTC. Any suggestion where to download trusted prices? Regarding the date format - it can really cause confusion. Let me explaine. The "calculator" date format is "YYYY-MM-DD" (ISO 8601). But the input field's date format adapts based on your device settings. For better UX.

> Any suggestion where to download trusted prices?

Ask your friendly neighbourhood LLM for sources. :)

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#65

Post by andirk »

jonplackett wrote: post #22
nkrisc wrote: post #21

I first heard about bitcoin sometime in college (2007-2011). At the time I thought about buying a couple just for fun (might have been a few dollars worth? Can’t remember). But I decided it was a waste of money. And at the time, it was a complete waste of money. I don’t regret it at all. Only with knowledge of the future would it have been worthwhile. But today when I see what cryptocurrency has become, I regret my d…

I was gonna buy $1000 of bitcoin in 2016 but I couldn’t find my passport to verify my identity with Coinbase and then forgot about it. Ah well.

I did find my passport at that same time and threw a lot more USD at it. It's nice.

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#66

Post by andirk »

nkrisc wrote: post #21

I first heard about bitcoin sometime in college (2007-2011). At the time I thought about buying a couple just for fun (might have been a few dollars worth? Can’t remember). But I decided it was a waste of money. And at the time, it was a complete waste of money. I don’t regret it at all. Only with knowledge of the future would it have been worthwhile. But today when I see what cryptocurrency has become, I regret my d…

Just like any stonk that's increased in value, woulda coulda shoulda. Keep an eye out for things that you care about and things you think other people will care about, and invest in those.

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#67

Post by eru »

b0bbi wrote: post #6
eru wrote: post #2

Wouldn't this need to know what I actually did instead? When I use it, it tells me that the form was incomplete. I tried to figure out how much I regret having bought 0 bitcoin so far. Perhaps needs a better error message? I think it actually doesn't like the zero, but prevents it doesn't like incomplete data. Zero is also a number. > CAUSALITY_ERROR: You cannot SELL before you BUY. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor…

Thanks for the "zero", it really does matter in a calculator like this. Fair point on the shorting - I definitely prioritized retro drama over actual market mechanics there!

Well, 'zero' is what I actually did. For regret, you'd need to select a counterfactual of what I could have done. (And at least one of them needs to differ from zero to give you any results. Or more generally, two scenarios need to differ in at lest one aspect to produce a meaningful comparison. Identical scenarios in back-testing give identical outcomes here.)
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