61–70 of 137 posts
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Yes and no. Not dividing by population density ~ Probability I will become a crime victim by travelling through that area Dividing by population densitiy ~ Probability that I would be a crime victim if I live in that area
Not necessarily, people may (or may not? maybe it’s regional) be more likely to victimize strangers.
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it’s not surprising if you’ve ever lived in that area
It is somewhat surprising actually. Presumably if there's an actual hotspot that police would be ever-present in the area until it dilutes out
you live in the area? because your comment doesn’t sound like it
It's interesting to see how certain crimes (e.g. Assault and Robbery) have hotspots that map perfectly onto BART stops (16th & Mission, 24th & Mission).
Possibly because the crimes are occurring aboard the train, so the exact location of the crime is unclear?
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As a tourist in SF recently I was interested in seeing the whole city, warts and all, and I did. I don't really understand why as a tourist you'd want to use this map for a short trip, unless you were going somewhere that's a literal war zone. Most cities just aren't statistically dangerous for a tourist unless you go out looking for trouble. You're much better off applying common sense than digging through digital m…
I dunno, I'd think car break-ins would at least be a very important statistic. My wife and I will be spending a day in the Fisherman's Wharf area, and the statistics on car break-ins has me concerned, though a co-worker who lives in the Bay told me that if I'm parked in a parking garage, it's less likely I'll be a victim, as it's harder to smash-and-grab-and-go when you have to deal with a parking gate.
@dang or other HN mods - can you help me understand why this post was so rapidly downranked? It's now on the 6th page... it's got to be the highest upvoted yet lowest ranked post submitted today. As far as I can tell there were no flags or anything. Am I missing something here?
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The number of parking spots may be static, but the number of potential thieves scales with population density.
Does it really? Some classes of crime have been narrowed down to the same 50 individuals. You can't model car break-ins as everybody in the area rolling the dice on getting a taste for breaking glass and grabbing things.
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That's probably not the correct analysis, because the number you're trying to estimate is not P(a crime occurs near you), it's P(you will personally be the victim of a crime). Crime rate over density won't necessarily do that either (since the population density of a primarily commercial+touristy area, e.g. Fisherman's Wharf, is << the number of people who are present there on a given day), but neither does raw count…
As a tourist in SF recently I was interested in seeing the whole city, warts and all, and I did. I don't really understand why as a tourist you'd want to use this map for a short trip, unless you were going somewhere that's a literal war zone. Most cities just aren't statistically dangerous for a tourist unless you go out looking for trouble. You're much better off applying common sense than digging through digital m…