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Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

shouldhavebought.com

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Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#51
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the way, a "Reverse Mode" (calculating the initial stake needed to hit exactly $1M) is actually a brilliant idea. But to your underlying point - it's the hard truth. People often act like they have infinite time and keep putting decisions off for "later". And then, boom - your peak earning years are behind you, boom - you're 70. This terminal is basically a receipt for that exact kind of procrastination.

It is sort of brilliant (thanks btw) but also stupid to think about. It is easy for people to simply put a sensible monthly amount in a low cost fund and given enough time and steady contributions make life changing amounts of money (early retirement, house upgrade, child’s school or college paid for etc). And all without needing to take a big bet at any point.

You are welcome:)

This works as long as everything is good and stable, at least with the economy. But in the long run (decades), it still works. You just have to survive.

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#54
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of people that thought WeWork would go to the moon, too.

You are 100% right about survivorship bias. That's actually exactly why the calculator already supports a status "BULLET DODGED"!

Do you account for all the factors of the worldwide market? Because there are certainly more busts then there are crypto level books.

The whole pre-tense of your site is flawed by survivorship bias to the point where it has no value, and you suggesting you’ve accounted for that proves that you’re ignorant to economic realities.

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#55
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was gonna buy $1000 of bitcoin in 2016 but I couldn’t find my passport to verify my identity with Coinbase and then forgot about it. Ah well.

would you keep it till today?

Probably would have sold it when it doubled and felt like a genius… and then an idiot.

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#56
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are 100% right about survivorship bias. That's actually exactly why the calculator already supports a status "BULLET DODGED"!

Do you account for all the factors of the worldwide market? Because there are certainly more busts then there are crypto level books. The whole pre-tense of your site is flawed by survivorship bias to the point where it has no value, and you suggesting you’ve accounted for that proves that you’re ignorant to economic realities.

Either I misunderstood the question, or you misunderstood what this project is about. All I consider is historical data. Based on this data and the dates entered, I calculate the result. I don't need to consider economics.

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#57
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

would you keep it till today?

Probably would have sold it when it doubled and felt like a genius… and then an idiot.

yeh, that's true :) btw, I'm sure many did just that

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#58
post #46
post #40

The opportunity cost is what I can do instead. The opportunity cost of investing is just a 3% return really. So much that we do in life is just throwing the money away though. You should just go to work, invest all your money, then when you are 65 you will be able to live off your savings.

I spent 20 years of my adult life on a cold and calculating lifestyle (as you described), I can’t say that I was unhappy, but one morning I woke up and realized that everything that had been acquired was lost due to circumstances beyond my control. So?

What happened?

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#59
post #58
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent 20 years of my adult life on a cold and calculating lifestyle (as you described), I can’t say that I was unhappy, but one morning I woke up and realized that everything that had been acquired was lost due to circumstances beyond my control. So?

What happened?

the war began

Re: Show HN: Quantifying opportunity cost with a deliberately "simple" web app

#60
post #31
post #2

Wouldn't this need to know what I actually did instead? When I use it, it tells me that the form was incomplete. I tried to figure out how much I regret having bought 0 bitcoin so far. Perhaps needs a better error message? I think it actually doesn't like the zero, but prevents it doesn't like incomplete data. Zero is also a number. > CAUSALITY_ERROR: You cannot SELL before you BUY. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor…

fixed, btw

Thanks!
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