Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

vidacode.github.io

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 86 posts

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#51

Post by greenhorn123 »

tinco wrote: post #45
rplnt wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With BTC especially, my argument (to myself) is that if I weren't lazy and got BTC at $20 I would have definitely sold at $100.

I did that, and then rebought at 130 and sold again at 175, and so on until I only had a couple and then MtGox happened and I lost 80% of that and lost interest for a couple years. It's definitely possible to get in early and not become rich at all.

You should stay away from casinos. Gamblers tend to follow this pattern, they are ahead in between but they always lose it all in the end, they just don't know when to walk away.

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#52

Post by greenhorn123 »

once_inc wrote: post #28
fishtoaster wrote: post #11

A good counter to "I could have made $X bazillion if I'd gotten into Y thing at Z time" is to remember that you could have doubled your money at the horse track yesterday by betting on the right horse at the right time. So the only question is: what's different between Y thing and horse betting? Did you have enough information at Z time to know you should have invested? Or are you just wishing you could have predicte…

I tend to counter in a different way: YES, I knew about Bitcoin a couple of years before I invested in it. YES, I could have made a significant return during that time. YES, I should have investigated it further at that time, instead of focussing on other things. YES, I made a risk/return analysis at that time, and felt that the risk of investing was too high, even if I didn't do my due diligence. Everyone, at every…

In an alternative world where Bitcoin crashed and burned after it was launched but before you decided to invest you would feel that much smarter!

It's all very easy in hindsight, the trouble is to predict it accurately. A better way to look at this is to say that some people got lucky and some didn't.

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#53

Post by tinco »

greenhorn123 wrote: post #51
tinco wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did that, and then rebought at 130 and sold again at 175, and so on until I only had a couple and then MtGox happened and I lost 80% of that and lost interest for a couple years. It's definitely possible to get in early and not become rich at all.

You should stay away from casinos. Gamblers tend to follow this pattern, they are ahead in between but they always lose it all in the end, they just don't know when to walk away.

Ah yeah, that typical behaviour of gamblers that when they lose it all they stop gambling for years :P

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#55

Post by netsharc »

once_inc wrote: post #28
fishtoaster wrote: post #11

A good counter to "I could have made $X bazillion if I'd gotten into Y thing at Z time" is to remember that you could have doubled your money at the horse track yesterday by betting on the right horse at the right time. So the only question is: what's different between Y thing and horse betting? Did you have enough information at Z time to know you should have invested? Or are you just wishing you could have predicte…

I tend to counter in a different way: YES, I knew about Bitcoin a couple of years before I invested in it. YES, I could have made a significant return during that time. YES, I should have investigated it further at that time, instead of focussing on other things. YES, I made a risk/return analysis at that time, and felt that the risk of investing was too high, even if I didn't do my due diligence. Everyone, at every…

The lucky ones are the ones who were a little foolish (spot my bias...) and not greedy. Those who got on the bandwagon (again, spot my bias), and decided to cash out when they thought "That's great enough ROI!".

Of course the problem with humans is, if they cashed out at say 25K, they'd have regrets when BTC hit 30K-35K, and since they have money they'd be tempted to join in again...

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#56

Post by thrwyoilarticle »

barnbuilder wrote: post #39
vages wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I had crypto assets, I came upon this article about “Greater fool theory” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory It made me sell all my crypto (luckily at a profit), and I have not looked back.

What is the difference between something explained by the "Greater Fool Theory", and any of the numerous things that simply increase in value over time due to increased demand and/or rising scarcity? It seems to me the only difference is whether the speaker is predisposed to not like the thing in question.

If you're referring to gold, etc., then I'd agree. Even despite their real-world utility, I don't buy them.

If you're referring to stocks and bonds, those can have objective value in the form of dividends and coupons.

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#57

Post by thrwyoilarticle »

nightski wrote: post #35
vages wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I had crypto assets, I came upon this article about “Greater fool theory” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory It made me sell all my crypto (luckily at a profit), and I have not looked back.

So you basically don't invest in anything because that theory can be applied to any asset.

Coinbase recently offered a bond that paid 3.3750% interest. As long as they don't default on their payments, that will have objective returns outside of any market forces and greater fools. The price you can sell it for fluctuates but is immaterial if you hold it to maturity.

Of course, it's very unlikely that anybody in this thread bought them because in reality we are looking for gains correlated to hype/market performance/inflation/interest.

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#58

Post by netsharc »

BurningPenguin wrote: post #42
Jistern wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I learned from a quotation which is attributed to Mark Cuban, so-called “cyptocurrencies” are collectibles like baseball cards, rare postage stamps, and French impressionist paintings. Fundamentally they're all fads. None of them have any significant inherent value. Typically two types of people purchase them: either avid collectors or speculators. Don't gamble. It's not a productive use of your time. It's also a…

I think you're confusing a Crypto with NFTs. One is virtual money, the other is virtual certificates.

I have a collection of broken pens on my desk... in theory I could also use them as units of currencies, I just have to find a sucker^W person willing to accept them as such...

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#59

Post by nerdyrugbyguy »

ramraj07 wrote: post #22
fishtoaster wrote: post #11

A good counter to "I could have made $X bazillion if I'd gotten into Y thing at Z time" is to remember that you could have doubled your money at the horse track yesterday by betting on the right horse at the right time. So the only question is: what's different between Y thing and horse betting? Did you have enough information at Z time to know you should have invested? Or are you just wishing you could have predicte…

The issue is that many of us WeRE present and actively monitoring crypto. Heck I even tried to mine bitcoin back when you had a chance to mine one in your own gpu. I even thought maybe I’ll buy a coin or two; it’s only 20 bucks each! But “better judgement” said that it’s a currency it shouldn’t appreciate so why bother unless you want to actually use it? So if there’s regret it’s because many of us feel almost penali…

I've been in it since 2012. The financial crisis of 2009 prompted me to study economics, the federal reserve system and the history of banking in the U.S. I went looking for solutions since the problem was affecting me and many people I knew. Bitcoin was the best solution I found. At first it seemed too quirky and strange, but I've continued to study over the years and have come to appreciate the elegance of the "quirks". Here is me presenting my take on bitcoin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fUiFtJ8BaY

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#60

Post by rglullis »

That's cool, but what I'd really like to see would be some form of tool to define different strategies and visualize how they would've worked.

I mean, probably professional traders have tons of these to do back-testing, but it would be nice to have something simple that people could use to check basic strategies.

Just as an example, when I was still into BTC my "strategy" was to buy $100 very month, and in the end of the year I would sell just enough to get my money back and only if the average price went up in the year. It worked well for the bull years, and losses (if I was forced to realize them) were capped at $1200/year.

I think a tool like that should be good not just for crypto, but also to help those understand that sensible investing is not about timing the market and picking the right lottery tickets.

Post reply on HN