41–50 of 62 posts
I don't wanna be a "Korinthenkacker", but "Build in Berlin" means to me the builder has to obey the Law and add an Imprint and Privacy Policy to his site...
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A proof that the pok and its hash hasn't been altered since its creation.
You can accomplish this with plain old cryptography. No blockchain needed. There are lots of ways to do it. One of them would be for Fuuture to publish the hash to literally anywhere. Public + cryptographically verifiable + distributed + append-only still does not equal blockchain, as long as we're defining blockchain as something that was not invented before 2009.
Blockchain is overhypered nonsense 99.9999% of the time. But seriously this is the one in a billion projects where you should use the Bitcoin blockchain as much as I hate to say it
Blockchain is overhypered nonsense 99.9999% of the time. But seriously this is the one in a billion projects where you should use the Bitcoin blockchain as much as I hate to say it
It could commit the hashes via https://opentimestamps.org/ to the bitcoin blockchain for example.
I wonder whether predictions (aka "poks") are stored in encrypted form in their database? Knowing what people think will happen in the future is obviously rather useful information.
It would be cool if there was a relatively reliable way of creating cryptographic "time capsules" that can be only opened at certain date in future. So something like, I encrypt message with a certain public key. The private key is guaranteed to only become available on 1st of January 2030.
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Trustworthy digital bookie, I guess?
But why not make the prediction public? That' the part I don't understand. (I came to ask the same question as GP.) It seems that it's used on Twitter to prove that you were right about something, and so people should trust your foresight ability. E.g., this tweet here: [1] How does keeping it secret change things? If it's about something that is secret that you know about, well then having foreknowledge is not that…
1. User makes a public declaration to always make a prediction using some platform. Like they release a tweet saying all future predictions will happen on futuu.re (or on a Blockchain)
2. They only release the sha hashes of their prediction to futuu.re, along with a date for that prediction, and users keep the true prediction with themselves. At any time before deadline they must reveal the content to the world and tell futuu.re about it. Futuu.re verifies that the sha matches the prediction and keeps an easy record. All predictions must start with a preamble.
3. futuu.re maintains three counters for a use, one showing the number of predictions made till that time, second showing predictions that should be revealed till that time, third showing the number of predictions that have been revealed . This establishes the long time accuracy of the user.
This way when someone reveals their pok then the public will know whether they tried to fool people because the users trust ratio will go down if they make a lot of predictions without revealing them. This is also more secure since the actual content is never stored on the server.
The only thing that needs to be done is to use a content formatter/validator at the time of hash creation for stylstic reasons and to make it convenient for public to verify the accuracy of the user.
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But why not make the prediction public? That' the part I don't understand. (I came to ask the same question as GP.) It seems that it's used on Twitter to prove that you were right about something, and so people should trust your foresight ability. E.g., this tweet here: [1] How does keeping it secret change things? If it's about something that is secret that you know about, well then having foreknowledge is not that…
Because making a prediction publically can affect the event itself. Either in a positive feedback loop (Elon Musk tweets "Gamestonk" => Gamestop stock goes up) or negatively (in any hypothetical situation where an adversary wants to frustrate you, allowing them to know your prediction also allows them to work against you).
Imma going to go and make a whole bunch of predictions, wait a year, and then only reveal the ones that actually came true.
Now I'm a genius, right?
This is basically similar to an old common scam, where you would mail 100 people, and 50 would say 'buy this stock it's awesome', and another 50 would say 'sell this stock, it stinks', and to 50 of those people, you're going to look like a genius, and to the others, you're just another scrub.
Now I could go and make several predictions for the top 100 stocks, planning for every possible move, and then as they come true, start to reveal those predictions and BAM, I'm a fucking genius, give me all your money, and I'll invest it for you.
Why allow hiding predictions? That means I can make a bunch of predictions and only reveal the ones that were right.
As far as I can tell the website provides no way to revoke or otherwise hide a prediction once you make it - it will always be revealed at the specified date. Additionally, the creation screen proclaims: > There is no way to edit or delete a pok after you save it
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Because making a prediction publically can affect the event itself. Either in a positive feedback loop (Elon Musk tweets "Gamestonk" => Gamestop stock goes up) or negatively (in any hypothetical situation where an adversary wants to frustrate you, allowing them to know your prediction also allows them to work against you).
Having secret predictions are also problematic. Imma going to go and make a whole bunch of predictions, wait a year, and then only reveal the ones that actually came true. Now I'm a genius, right? This is basically similar to an old common scam, where you would mail 100 people, and 50 would say 'buy this stock it's awesome', and another 50 would say 'sell this stock, it stinks', and to 50 of those people, you're goin…