Live data from Hacker News

Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

rankedvote.co

221–230 of 326 posts

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#221
post #165
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's easy to understand and doesn't result in absurd outcomes I mean, I realize this is somewhat subjective, but "more people ranking a candidate first can cause them to lose" seems like a pretty absurd outcome to me. I'm not saying approval voting is perfect either, sure it has flaws, but at least it doesn't violate the monotonicity criterion (or a variety of other important criteria that RCV fails to satisfy).

I think this is the important point: some criteria are more important than others in that the societal reactions when one or another criterion is violated are not equal and could engender different outcomes. If approval voting reduces to bullet voting in heated contests, I don't see that as very bad: to put it crudely, it's just the cost of doing business with that particular voting method, but there's nothing to say…

Of course approval voting doesn't reduce to bullet voting, for the same reason tactical plurality voting (the status quo) isn't honest. Green supporters voting Democrat for instance.

https://www.rangevoting.org/BulletVoting

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#222
post #188
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is the important point: some criteria are more important than others in that the societal reactions when one or another criterion is violated are not equal and could engender different outcomes. If approval voting reduces to bullet voting in heated contests, I don't see that as very bad: to put it crudely, it's just the cost of doing business with that particular voting method, but there's nothing to say…

"Bullet voting" (voting for only one candidate) isn't usually even a smart strategy to maximize your influence in an approval voting election, despite fairvote.org's claims that it is.

Fairvote lack expertise and lie a lot.

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#223
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not nearly as complex as you're making it out to be. Palin was the spoiler candidate in Alaska. If Palin hadn't run, Begich would have won. Additionally, if Palin > Begich > Peltola voters had "dishonestly" voted Begich > Palin > Peltola, Begich would have won and those voters would have gotten a better outcome for themselves. By honestly ranking their preferences, they threw away their say in the outcome. Now d…

> By honestly ranking their preferences, they threw away their say in the outcome. When Begich came out as the loser, every one of the votes he got went to the voter's #2 choice which was either Palin or Peltola (and a surprising 29% of Begich voters had Peltola as their #2 choice!) The only people who "threw away their say in the outcome" are the ones who didn't rank their preferences. They basically opted out of ha…

This is simply wrong.

Palin voters didn't get their second choice preferences counted. If they had instead tactically/ insincerely ranked Begich first, he would have won by a 5% majority against Peltola. They were punished by voting sincerely for Palin.

Palin was a spoiler. People who voted for her threw away their vote, period.

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see a problem in the Alaska election. Perhaps I'm missing something? I posted this in a previous discussion but I'll repost because I'm keen to hear other perspectives. From https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-democrats-win-in-a... > 40 percent of voters had chosen Peltola as their first choice, 31 percent had chosen Palin and 29 percent had chosen Republican businessman Nick Begich III. Under the rules…

> I see that there are certain situations where ex post, you get some weird outcomes where _hypothetically_ ranking your preferred candidate lower would have helped your candidate. It's not even that strong -- it's outcomes where ranking your second -most preferred candidate above your preferred one will help get that second -most preferred candidate elected, as opposed to a third one you detest -- if you know your m…

Of course it works in practice. You just vote for the stronger lesser evil candidate, for the same reason my aunt voted for Biden even though she preferred Warren. This is called compromise strategy.

The opposite strategy would be like if Trump supporters voted for Warren to advance the weaker candidate against their guy.

The same strategy works in any kind of runoff method including instant runoff voting.

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#226
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not nearly as complex as you're making it out to be. Palin was the spoiler candidate in Alaska. If Palin hadn't run, Begich would have won. Additionally, if Palin > Begich > Peltola voters had "dishonestly" voted Begich > Palin > Peltola, Begich would have won and those voters would have gotten a better outcome for themselves. By honestly ranking their preferences, they threw away their say in the outcome. Now d…

> By honestly ranking their preferences, they threw away their say in the outcome. When Begich came out as the loser, every one of the votes he got went to the voter's #2 choice which was either Palin or Peltola (and a surprising 29% of Begich voters had Peltola as their #2 choice!) The only people who "threw away their say in the outcome" are the ones who didn't rank their preferences. They basically opted out of ha…

The people who picked Begich as their first choice had their second choice counted, but the people who picked Palin as their first choice threw away their second choice. Had the latter's second choices not been thrown away, then Begich would have won.

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#227
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see a problem in the Alaska election. Perhaps I'm missing something? I posted this in a previous discussion but I'll repost because I'm keen to hear other perspectives. From https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-democrats-win-in-a... > 40 percent of voters had chosen Peltola as their first choice, 31 percent had chosen Palin and 29 percent had chosen Republican businessman Nick Begich III. Under the rules…

Especially since Begich only wins the Condorcet because he's preferable to Palin to Democrats. In a primary system, Begich doesn't even get to the general. So it becomes Palin against Peltola. Begich can only win in a head to head matchup in a general election against any single candidate. He cannot beat the field, because he is consistently someone's second choice in the overall field.

Beating everyone head to head is beating the field. The reason Begich wasn't picked by RCV is because he didn't have enough first choice votes. The problem with your analysis is that you are placing more value on a person's first choice than is warranted. You are assuming people care so much about their first choice winning that their lower choices are essentially irrelevant as long as their first choice is in the race. However, this is not necessarily the case. For example, what if someone liked their first two choices equally (or perhaps close to equal), but was forced by the ballot to rank one ahead of the other? That is a very different situation than if the voters did in fact have a very strong preference for their favorite over their second favorite, which is the situation you are assuming. Neither of these situations can be assumed from the data presented on a ranked/ordinal ballot.

With a cardinal ballot such as score or STAR, your argument could potentially hold water because we can glean the nuanced preferences from people's ballots. eg if someone ranked Palin 5, Begich 4, and Peltota 0, that's a very different story from Palin 5, Begich 1, Peltota 0, even though both of those ballots would look identical if they were squished into a ranked ballot format. The second case would support your argument pretty solidly since the voter didn't like Begich much at all, just a smidgen better than Peltota.

For the opposite scenario, consider if this race had been done with a 5 point score/STAR ballot where 40% voters give Palin 5, Begich 4, and Peltota 0, 40% voters give Peltota 5, Begich 4, and Palin 0, and 20% voters give Begich 5. It would be inexcusable not to elect Begich. Even though Begich was not the first choice for 80% of the population, an election like that would indicate such extremely strong support for him that you'll probably be inclined to point out that such an election would never happen in reality and I'm giving a contrived example. Which you're right, I'm not saying this is a likely scenario, I'm simply trying to illustrate how a compromise candidate could in fact be very strong, but RCV will still eliminate them if they don't have enough first choice votes. Placing a premium on people's first choice votes as RCV does is both unwarranted given the data represented on the ballots as well as harmful due to the issues it causes with monotonicity, not electing the Condorcet winner, etc.

If we want to insist on ranked ballots, we should be using a Condorcet method to count them.

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#228
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see a problem in the Alaska election. Perhaps I'm missing something? I posted this in a previous discussion but I'll repost because I'm keen to hear other perspectives. From https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-democrats-win-in-a... > 40 percent of voters had chosen Peltola as their first choice, 31 percent had chosen Palin and 29 percent had chosen Republican businessman Nick Begich III. Under the rules…

Especially since Begich only wins the Condorcet because he's preferable to Palin to Democrats. In a primary system, Begich doesn't even get to the general. So it becomes Palin against Peltola. Begich can only win in a head to head matchup in a general election against any single candidate. He cannot beat the field, because he is consistently someone's second choice in the overall field.

You make it sound like being the consistent second choice means he doesn't deserve to win, when the opposite is true. Consider a hypothetical country in which 33% of the population is religion X, 33% is religion Y, and 34% is religion Z. Candidate 1 wants the country to be a religion X theocracy, candidate 2 wants the country to be a religion Y theocracy, candidate 3 wants the country to be a religion Z theocracy, and candidate 4 wants the country to have freedom of religion. (Assume all voters would love a theocracy of their own religion, be okay with freedom of religion, and hate a theocracy of a different religion.) Do you want an election system where candidate 3 wins instead of candidate 4?

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A problem with all of these systems is that they are harder to understand, resulting in reduced voter confidence, or they demand more from the voter. Any kind of ranking is going to mean you need to know enough about each candidate to put them in some kind of order. Maybe OK if there are two candidates but much harder after that. Most people will rank their favorite on top and then just randomly rank the remainder. S…

I agree, but I'd argue that instant-runoff/RCV is the second-easiest to understand, by far, while also being much better than simple plurality voting. Which is why I strongly favor instant-runoff.

Actually there's another option which hasn't been mentioned so far, which is just as easy to implement as plurality (for both voting and counting by hand), and has pretty much all the benefits of IRV/RCV.

That method is "Asset Voting", which works exactly like a plurality vote, except that once the totals for each candidate are known, the candidates are eliminated one by one (from least to most votes) and get to assign their vote counts to any remaining candidate.

If you agree with me and the parent post that voter confidence (including avoiding electronic counting machines) is the most important factor when evaluating possible alternatives to plurality (assuming the alternatives are no worse than plurality) then hopefully you will agree that Asset Voting is preferable to IRV/RCV.

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> By honestly ranking their preferences, they threw away their say in the outcome. When Begich came out as the loser, every one of the votes he got went to the voter's #2 choice which was either Palin or Peltola (and a surprising 29% of Begich voters had Peltola as their #2 choice!) The only people who "threw away their say in the outcome" are the ones who didn't rank their preferences. They basically opted out of ha…

> it happens only when you don't specify who your vote should go to if your first pick doesn't have enough supporters And your second pick, and your third pick... right? A big reason for electoral reform is to encourage a wider range of candidates to run, which means voters may be faced with having to come up with a total ordering across a dozen different options. You seem to be saying that voters who aren't informed…

> You seem to be saying that voters who aren't informed enough about their relative preferences for all available candidates, deserve to have their votes thrown away

Not at all, if we get to the point where people are having to choose between and rank 50+ different candidates I might agree there's a problem, but a handful of choices simply isn't. In the Alaska election they had just three to rank, since the primary weeded out the most unpopular others right away. There's also nothing to stop someone from bringing in a list of names and ranks compiled ahead of time. No need to keep your preferred ranking in your head. These days you could pull out your phone while in the voting booth, or have a small slip of paper in your wallet, purse, or pocket.

This might surprise you, but many many people aren't terribly informed about the candidates and still manage to cast a vote under our current system. This is especially true for local offices. That subset of the population can continue making poorly informed choices about a few more candidates than usual without much trouble.

I do appreciate that you're looking out for the rights of the illiterate voting population, but there's never been an easier time for illiterate people to get informed. Nearly half of the research into a particular candidate I do these days is in the form of youtube videos and radio interviews. It's admittedly slower than reading, but I do feel like I get a lot of information about a person by seeing and hearing them speak. Come voting day there are already poll workers prepared to assist illiterate voters with casting their vote as well and none of that will change under ranked choice voting.

Post reply on HN