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Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

isthestockmarketgoingtocrash.com

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Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#221

Post by wyager »

Retric wrote: post #201
wyager wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hopefully this one is based on solid enough fundamental market forces that it persists after its publication. If you can find any way to predict the future price of things, you can make money by performing arbitrage across time (instead of space, which is how people usually think of arbitrage). This (nominally) describes all types of model-informed time-based investment. The thing with arbitrage is that there's a f…

Depends on what your modeling. A risk vs inflation vs ROI curve should be maintained by the market rather than destroyed by it.

This should be baked into your calculation of future expectation values. This factors in risk, uncertainty, time preference, inflation, etc.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#223

Post by ihsw2 »

SmellTheGlove wrote: post #15
mendeza wrote: post #6

What about student loan debt, how does that factor into the economy or the stock market being affected? Right now student loan debt is at 1.4 trillion source: https://www.debt.org/students/

I wouldn't worry about student loan debt being a problem. It's very likely that they're going to get a bailout before a bubble bursts. Where on earth did I come up with this, you ask? Easy - I just paid my student loans off last week. It's only natural that everyone else will now get bailed out! Seriously, though, this is a real problem and we need to do something. Even if it doesn't have a direct effect any time soo…

It's already hurting the housing and consumer spending segments, as per the incessant and continuous "Millenials are killing the X industry" clickbait every other hour.

Replace X with home ownership, car ownership, renovation, Chili's, Applebee's, and whatever else services the traditional nuclear family.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#224

Post by rb808 »

Ended wrote: post #124
runako wrote: post #35

I've never seen market valuation expressed as market cap as % of GDP. I'm not an economist, so I'll leave the detailed arguments to them. But it would be at least useful to explain why you think this is a meaningful metric as compared to those typically used to measure market valuation (e.g. P/E ratios etc.). Your graph also ties your valuation metric to the 2000 peak and the 2008 peak. However, there were crashes in…

In fact unless I'm missing something the units don't match up: Total stock market value has units $ GDP has units $/year So expressing their ratio as a % is misleading.

A good similar example would be speed as a % of distance. Eg going on a trip 240 miles at 60 miles/hour is 0.25. Same thing.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#225

Post by brookside »

A great read on how to capitalize on the upcoming crash! The Sale of a Lifetime: How the Great Bubble Burst of 2017-2019 Can Make You Rich[1]

Also good is the author's earlier book The Great Crash Ahead [2] "outlining why the next financial crash and crisis is inevitable, and just around the corner— coming between mid-2012 and early 2015"

Hmmm...

1. https://www.amazon.com/Sale-Lifetime-Great-Bubble-2017-2019/...

2. https://www.amazon.com/Great-Crash-Ahead-Strategies-Turned/d...

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#226

Post by zanny »

SmellTheGlove wrote: post #15
mendeza wrote: post #6

What about student loan debt, how does that factor into the economy or the stock market being affected? Right now student loan debt is at 1.4 trillion source: https://www.debt.org/students/

I wouldn't worry about student loan debt being a problem. It's very likely that they're going to get a bailout before a bubble bursts. Where on earth did I come up with this, you ask? Easy - I just paid my student loans off last week. It's only natural that everyone else will now get bailed out! Seriously, though, this is a real problem and we need to do something. Even if it doesn't have a direct effect any time soo…

I paid off most of my loans the first year after graduating, but held onto the lowest interest one with minimum payments despite having been able to pay the whole thing off for five years because I expect the same - the week after I pay the damn thing off is the week unconditional loan forgiveness happens and I wasted all my money.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#227

Post by rb808 »

lr4444lr wrote: post #38

Can someone with an actual economics degree explain to me whether it's a valid criticism of the "Market cap as % of GDP" metric that many US companies derive value from multinational labor and consumption, and if not, why not? Thanks in advance.

It is valid criticism. The rule is a rule of thumb, so isn't like a law of physics. The amount of internationalization would be relatively similar over short periods of time, so is an OK measure cf 10-20 years ago, but yes has problems comparing over a century.

Other similar issues are the amount of private ownership of US companies (that aren't included in Total Market Cap), and also foreign ownership of US companies which is higher than it used to be (I think).

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#228

Post by qubex »

RobertoG wrote: post #175
qubex wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you mean Mark To Market , yes. It you mean anything else (and I am wracking my brains trying to come up with another relevant meaning for that acronym), no.

I think he is talking about Modern Monetary Theory, where one of the conclusions they arrive, after studying how modern economies work, is that private sector debt grow when there is not enough government deficit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sectoral_balances Another of the conclusions is that the national debt, for countries with a floating sovereign currency, is just a number without real meaning. https://www.nak…

Ah. I'm dyslexic and ashamed and I'm going to put myself to bed and try to forget this before the morning comes.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#229

Post by javajosh »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #113
javajosh wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nit pick: only about 5% of Saudi Aramco is going public, the total company is worth $1-2T (although this is a matter of some debate, as you might imagine), so aggregate market cap will only increase by $50B. [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/24/saudi-aramcos-valuation-repo...

> aggregate market cap will only increase by $50B If you list 5% of a $1 trillion company on a stock exchange, the aggregate market capitalisation goes up by $1 trillion. (Float goes up by $50bn.) Market capitalisation is price per share times shares outstanding [1]. Float is price per share times publicly-trading shares [2]. [1] https://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2005/04/29/quotouts... [2] http://www.investope…

You sound knowledgable about these matters, and I am not. In my ignorance, "agg. market cap" sounds like an easily gamed number. For example, I could start an exchange and ask every company in the world to list 10^-10 of their shares, and so become the largest exchange in the world by agg. market cap. (Perhaps this doesn't come up in practice because most firms list in only one market, and so agg. market cap becomes a useful measure of how much of the economy a given exchange touches, in some sense.)

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#230

Post by module0000 »

matthewbauer wrote: post #214
aphextron wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pure astrology

Not nearly as bad as some of the "Technical Analysis" I've seen. From what I gather, "Technical Analysis" just amounts to this is what the stock has done in the past, maybe it will do that in the future?

Yes and no. It depends what type of technical analysis you are doing... If your technical analysis has no other inputs except the price(over any period(s) of time), then you may as well go buy a lottery ticket.

If you are wondering which category you are in, if at any point during your "analysis" you find yourself looking for things with names like "evening star", "bullish engulfing", "head and shoulders", etc.... save yourself some time and money, and go buy that lottery ticket. Day trading is not for you.

If your technical analysis is looking at volume/price/depth-changes, then congratulations, you are on the right track. Next you have to overcome the largest and most devastating hurdle, which is your own psychology.

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