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Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

isthestockmarketgoingtocrash.com

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Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#191

Post by kbenson »

wyager wrote: post #170
PDoyle wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, really interesting read. Thanks for the link. Only trouble is that once people find patterns like this, they have a habit of disappearing. Hopefully this one is based on solid enough fundamental market forces that it persists after its publication. It was published in 2013 so we won't know for sure until after 2023.

> Hopefully this one is based on solid enough fundamental market forces that it persists after its publication. If you can find any way to predict the future price of things, you can make money by performing arbitrage across time (instead of space, which is how people usually think of arbitrage). This (nominally) describes all types of model-informed time-based investment. The thing with arbitrage is that there's a f…

Which is all just another way of saying (albeit more interestingly and in more detail), that when new information becomes available, the market adjusts to better reflect the true value of things.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#192

Post by [deleted] »

dkonofalski wrote: post #141
bousaid wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are downvoting you, but you're not wrong. Bitcoin is legitimately seen as an alternative to gold. So it's not crazy to expect people to buy BTC when shit hits the fan in the fiat markets.

No it's not. The only people that view Bitcoin as an alternative to gold are the people buying/trading in Bitcoin. No one else is that delusional.

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#193

Post by daotoad »

Good idea for a website, should be able to get you some nice revenue from intermittent visits. You probably want to focus on financial services for your ads.

I'm not going to say anything about your numbers and your models other than, without the ability to see how they looked at previous crashes, it's hard to see if the site is useful. To the innumerate masses and emotional investors the flickering numbers are persuasive enough. So they really don't matter.

On the bad side, your UX is god-awful. Use an oldish, slightly crappy monitor to look at it and you will discover that your background is indistinguishable from the foreground. The top bar of the box completely disappears, too. Also, a row of buttons is NOT a good tabbed interface--there is no indication that clicking on "Market Volatility" is going to reload all the content below the row of buttons. Maybe make actual tabs, at least make that stuff a distinct box.

This could be a nice little side product to make you some extra money. Get some GA on there, and slowly add features. I think a bit of interactivity and the ability to customize the predictive models through some drag and drop could actually make the page sticky and get people coming back.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#194

Post by tveita »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #116
tveita wrote: post #66

Normalizing household debt against the GDP makes the assumption that we are comparing the debt with the ability to pay for it. But according to graphs like this, even though the GDP has been rising, median households have not been getting a corresponding increase in income: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United... So the income we are adjusting against is not necessarily going to the people tha…

Household debt to GDP tells you the state of the society. Household debt to income tells you households' ability to repay. If Debt/GDP is fine but Debt/Income is not, you're looking at (a) default (lenders eat dust), (b) inflation (savers eat dust) or (c) public assistance (non-borrowing taxpayers eat dust). That's a political question. If Debt/GDP isn't fine, option (c) flies off the table.

That sounds reasonable, but aren't all of those mitigations for after the shit hits the fan? None of options will prevent a crash unless you can actually exercise them pre-crash.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#195

Post by icedchai »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #121
KasianFranks wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like there was in 2008/09 when most people in the world lost confidence in banking systems followed by the bailouts and Quantitative Easing.

> in 2008/09...most people in the world lost confidence in banking systems You mean when everyone sold securities, moved to cash, and bought Treasuries, CDs and bank deposits?

2008 was great. Everything was on sale, and I doubled down on my stock investments...

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#196

Post by CWuestefeld »

dooglius wrote: post #77
CWuestefeld wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The movie Wargames guessed wrong. As a result, the public understanding is backwards from the real NORAD numbers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEFCON https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHBqJj0znYo Seems consistent to me, DEFCON 1 is war, 5 is peace

My comment was from memory, based on my recollection of the director's commentary on the DVD. I'll have to see if I can find any supporting doc.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#197

Post by campbelltown »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #169
hervature wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold having intrinsic value is a straw man argument for it being different than Fiat currencies. Consider this thought experiment. You are going to live by yourself in the forest for a month. Would you rather have A) a weeks worth of food or B) 1 oz of gold. I think this highlights there is no intrinsic value or at least much lower than what people claim. Obviously, there is place for gold in electronics and circuitr…

Gold's price is not supported by its instrinsic value, I'll give you that. But the "forest" test is absurd. By that definition computers, chemotherapy and candy have no instrinsic value. Gold's value comes from its (a) millennia-long history of stably holding value across cultures and technological domains and (b) its tangibility and physically-enforced scarcity. Its intrinsic value is a fraction of its market value,…

But point a and b in you're assessment of gold's value are two of the most common arguments for crypto, specifically bitcoin, as well.

a) crypto holders believe that the value will hold because as more individuals use it to store their net worth, the harder it will become to manipulate. ie. a history of price growth/eventual stabilization will occur in time.

b) its algorithmically-enforced scarcity, which many people believe is as valid as physically-enforced scarcity. So long as hash-based cryptography always works.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#198

Post by AnimalMuppet »

Ended wrote: post #124
runako wrote: post #35

I've never seen market valuation expressed as market cap as % of GDP. I'm not an economist, so I'll leave the detailed arguments to them. But it would be at least useful to explain why you think this is a meaningful metric as compared to those typically used to measure market valuation (e.g. P/E ratios etc.). Your graph also ties your valuation metric to the 2000 peak and the 2008 peak. However, there were crashes in…

In fact unless I'm missing something the units don't match up: Total stock market value has units $ GDP has units $/year So expressing their ratio as a % is misleading.

The ratio has units of years - how many years of GDP does the value of the stock market represent? How long will it take the economy to produce the value assumed by the stock market valuations? Sure, that's not a pure number, but it's also not a totally nonsense number. At a minimum, it can be compared to historical values of the same number.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#199

Post by icedchai »

luckydude wrote: post #84
misja111 wrote: post #78

The metric used to calculate market overvaluation is interesting but it has little value for predicting a stock market crash. Let's take he last 3 major US crashes: 1987: this crash was caused by automated trading systems which could run wild in the absence of any prevention regulations such as circuit breakers 2000: the collapse of the dotcom bubble 2008: start of the financial crisis caused mainly by opaque credit…

"occurrences that nobody was aware of and that were only understood afterwards" Umm, I'm no genius but I was managing my mother's money at the time of the 2008 crash. It was very obvious to me that there was going to be a crash, I pulled out of the market in late 2006 and didn't lose a dime in the crash. I think the better statement is "The 2008 crash was obvious but many people were in denial". Again, I'm not a fina…

So you pulled out in 2006... When did you get back in? Timing the market is hard...

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#200

Post by JumpCrisscross »

campbelltown wrote: post #197
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold's price is not supported by its instrinsic value, I'll give you that. But the "forest" test is absurd. By that definition computers, chemotherapy and candy have no instrinsic value. Gold's value comes from its (a) millennia-long history of stably holding value across cultures and technological domains and (b) its tangibility and physically-enforced scarcity. Its intrinsic value is a fraction of its market value,…

But point a and b in you're assessment of gold's value are two of the most common arguments for crypto, specifically bitcoin, as well. a) crypto holders believe that the value will hold because as more individuals use it to store their net worth, the harder it will become to manipulate. ie. a history of price growth/eventual stabilization will occur in time. b) its algorithmically-enforced scarcity, which many people…

I think there's potential for cryptocurrencies to find homes in the modern financial landscape. But your counterpoint (a) is based on network effects. Distinguishing between short-term bubble behavior and long-term resilience can only be done after knocking the system with crises. Is there hope? Sure. Is it demonstrated? Absolutely not.

There is one feature gold has over Bitcoin that cryptocurrencies cannot replicate: resilience across technological domains. Gold holds value without computers or electricity. Bitcoin does not. Gold, on the other hand, cannot travel at the speed of light. TL; DR each solves different systems of trade-offs.

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