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Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

isthestockmarketgoingtocrash.com

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Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#171

Post by jng »

truffle_pig wrote: post #39
uiri wrote: post #34

For market overvaluation, it says: 9.1 / 10 "DEFCON 4" DEFCON 5 is peacetime, DEFCON 1 is imminent nuclear war. For example, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US reached DEFCON 2. Should this say DEFCON 2 instead? Or is "above" normal readiness the intended meaning?

Yeah was trying to communicate "moderate risk", but it's kinda tongue in cheek.

You can just write DEFCON 3 and this will communicate the same "moderate risk" message to everyone, no matter their understanding of how DEFCON levels work.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#174

Post by hidenotslide »

bluetwo wrote: post #83

The volatility index, or VIX, has become a popular measurement to reference in the context of predicting the market over the past couple years. The problem is that it does not seem to have any real predictive power and I have yet to see any shred of evidence that the VIX has been shown to have predictive power over the future value of the stock market. It is calculated from past price variance and is used in calculat…

It is calculated from the (theoretical) implied volatility of listed S&P options, so it is indeed forward looking (not past variance).

But it is riddled with microstructural issues and to my knowledge doesn't really have any track record of predicting crashes. It will react to market events contemporaneously though, so it is a decent measure of expected future volatility.

Besides household debt, the rest of these indicators don't make much sense either. Much better would be measures of the yield curve, inflation, and corporate credit quality.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#175

Post by RobertoG »

qubex wrote: post #167
crdoconnor wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar with MMT?

If you mean Mark To Market , yes. It you mean anything else (and I am wracking my brains trying to come up with another relevant meaning for that acronym), no.

I think he is talking about Modern Monetary Theory, where one of the conclusions they arrive, after studying how modern economies work, is that private sector debt grow when there is not enough government deficit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sectoral_balances

Another of the conclusions is that the national debt, for countries with a floating sovereign currency, is just a number without real meaning.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/08/taxation-government-...

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#176

Post by Nursie »

bkanber wrote: post #160
TazeTSchnitzel wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I got that in Firefox, whereas it works in Chrome. Poor cross-browser testing?

Seems to be because all the market data hasn't loaded yet. If you look above it should say "Loading data" under one of the categories in the text.

Yeah, on a second visit, everything seems OK.

Didn't notice the loading indicator myself.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#177

Post by cinquemb »

ouid wrote: post #173
cylinder wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The government owns student loans.

A) not all of them. B) the government owned the mortgage debt, given that they paid it.

I think the main question is how to get access to capitalize on the downside risks of A).

- Find out who has exposure to student loans portfolios and what percent is non performing?

- Find out what other assets A) is holding that will have liquidation pressure if *-swan occurs?

- What extent is B) tied to A)?

- What pressures B) would face long term due to non performance of student loans that would influence A) and the larger market of assets under the jurisdiction of B)?

- How much could be made from theoretically capitalizing on the downside risks of A) vs other assets in the mean time?

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#178

Post by davidivadavid »

qubex wrote: post #167
crdoconnor wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar with MMT?

If you mean Mark To Market , yes. It you mean anything else (and I am wracking my brains trying to come up with another relevant meaning for that acronym), no.

Modern monetary theory.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#179

Post by georgeecollins »

runako wrote: post #35

I've never seen market valuation expressed as market cap as % of GDP. I'm not an economist, so I'll leave the detailed arguments to them. But it would be at least useful to explain why you think this is a meaningful metric as compared to those typically used to measure market valuation (e.g. P/E ratios etc.). Your graph also ties your valuation metric to the 2000 peak and the 2008 peak. However, there were crashes in…

Here is the case for looking at Market Cap / GDP: Warren Buffet looks at the total market cap vs GDP because it is free from the influence of corporate accounting, unlike the more traditional P/E ratio.

The case against: economic activity in the US has been concentrating in larger companies (less small companies being started for example) and there is more "financialization" in general. So you would expect the ratio of market cap / GDP to go up for those reasons as well.

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