161–170 of 212 posts
Really cool project and subscribed to follow along.
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Real trades have transaction fees, latency, slippage, etc. - you can simulate all this, but it's hard to know if it's being simulated correctly or not. > their interpretation cannot be influenced by the fact that the trading orders are passed for real It's not going to make much difference with $5 trades, but the impact on the market is non-zero.
> fees, latency, slippage Whenever I trade, I somehow always get an adverse price. I figure it's the "no fee" brokerage chiseling a bit off for themselves. I compensate by being a buy and hold hold hold investor, so paying very little in aggregate for that. What I don't understand is how day traders avoid being eaten alive by this.
[1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3423101
They should have added a pure random bot as a control. Or a monkey.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Real trades have transaction fees, latency, slippage, etc. - you can simulate all this, but it's hard to know if it's being simulated correctly or not. > their interpretation cannot be influenced by the fact that the trading orders are passed for real It's not going to make much difference with $5 trades, but the impact on the market is non-zero.
> fees, latency, slippage Whenever I trade, I somehow always get an adverse price. I figure it's the "no fee" brokerage chiseling a bit off for themselves. I compensate by being a buy and hold hold hold investor, so paying very little in aggregate for that. What I don't understand is how day traders avoid being eaten alive by this.
I’d love to tune in for updates, but the subscribe button says, “ Failed to send verification email.” This is so cool. Would love to follow along.
Hey ttul, can you try again? I fixed the issue, hit my API limit with my account on mailgun
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ChatGPT does a good job of imitating the average crypto influencer. They don’t know what they’re saying either, and 99% of crypto investors would be thrilled by the prospect of a “pivotal Phase 3 Bitcoin ETF trial” that will “drive trust value realization”. Sounds great, can’t miss out on that! The hallucinations are simply a mirror of a community that thrives on this nonsense. When nothing is real, you can’t blame t…
When I'd watch the financial news on TV, they would always bring on the "technical analyst", show a graph of the stock price, and then hand-draw some lines on it, and then spew out various technical terms for it guaranteed to impress. Me, I always regarded technical analysis as drawing pictures in clouds. If any of those analysts were worth spit, they'd be working for a hedge fund, not the network.
All those lines do actually mean something, so long as the market is in agreement as how to draw them.
FWIW these bots aren't doing the lines stuff, they are purely sentiment traders.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
ChatGPT does a good job of imitating the average crypto influencer. They don’t know what they’re saying either, and 99% of crypto investors would be thrilled by the prospect of a “pivotal Phase 3 Bitcoin ETF trial” that will “drive trust value realization”. Sounds great, can’t miss out on that! The hallucinations are simply a mirror of a community that thrives on this nonsense. When nothing is real, you can’t blame t…
This made me chuckle. You made a very interesting point that if LLMs are copying hallucinations those hallucinations are not infact hallucinations.
It's kind of like a manufacturer of Ouija boards promising that they'll fix the "channeling the wrong spirits from beyond the mortal plane" problem. It falsely suggests that "normal" output is fundamentally different.
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If you believe (as many HNers do, although certainly not me) that LLMs have intelligence and awareness then you necessarily must also believe that the LLM is lying (call it hallucinating if you want).
Reminds me of recent paper where they found LLMs are scheming to meet certain goals; And that is a scientific paper done by a big lab. Are you referring from that context? Words and their historical contexts aside, systems which are based on optimization can take actions which can appear like intermediate lying to us. When deepmind used to play those atari games - the agents started cheating but that was just optimis…
IMO a much better framing is that the system was able to autocomplete stories/play-scripts. The document was already set up to contain a character that was a smart computer program with coincidentally the same name.
Then humans trick themselves into thinking the puppet-play is a conversation with the author.