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Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

isthestockmarketgoingtocrash.com

161–170 of 338 posts

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And Bitcoin Given Bitcoin's "capitalisation" failed to hit even $10bn until well after the crisis [1], it's safe to say that more capital moved, in almost any single U.S. state, from stocks to corporate bonds, than from anything to Bitcoin. Being optimistic about the future of a technology is fine. Being delusional about its history is not. [1] https://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap

Ignoring correlations to market downturns and ignoring the data is delusional https://www.google.com/search?site=&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1...

The religiosity on the side of "traditional" assets is exactly why they missed the boat. Whenever traditional models are threatened, the pitch forks come out. The VC industry is having it's Uber-moment. The disrupters are being disrupted.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the thing we have to do is not borrow money we can't repay. Literally nobody takes student loans that they are capable of repaying. Why would you, unless you could get a 0% APR? It'd be nice if young people - possessors of great foresight and fonts of wisdom, all - could predict whether they will be able to repay the very substantial loans they're likely to rack up in college. We are not living in a world, or an ec…

Literally nobody? My younger brother went to a state college during a time where he qualified for a ~3.4% loan from the government. I told him to take his time paying (for now), because a no-load passive index fund will yield higher than that. The past 3 years have been tremendous in terms of returns. He essentially used his student loans to net 12-18%. When family members caught wind of this, they told him it's not…

Using student loans as a form of leverage to invest in the stock market isn't new, so yeah, not "literally nobody." Point taken I guess.

It's just such a shockingly bad idea. We went from the topic of the average kid's inability to gauge the future value of their degree to the topic of the average kid's ability to predict the stock market well enough that using leverage to invest makes sense.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You did well (you are a lucky dude), but I'm sure there was someone else who pulled out in 2003 and looked foolish. If it was obvious, more people would have pulled out.

A crash is simply the result of it becoming obvious that the market is overvalued, is it not? Everyone heads for the exit at the same time.

Not really, it can be obvious the market is overvalued, to the point where almost everyone agrees this is true, but there is still money to be made and the momentum is still upwards so it keeps getting even more overvalued. A trader doesn't care how overvalued a share is compared to fundamental economics, he cares whether it's overvalued compared to it's likely price tomorrow or in 10 minutes, or in a few milliseconds. Then something happens that makes it real, like Lehmans being unable to meet its obligations.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ignoring correlations to market downturns and ignoring the data is delusional https://www.google.com/search?site=&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1...

The religiosity on the side of "traditional" assets is exactly why they missed the boat. Whenever traditional models are threatened, the pitch forks come out. The VC industry is having it's Uber-moment. The disrupters are being disrupted.

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are downvoting you, but you're not wrong. Bitcoin is legitimately seen as an alternative to gold. So it's not crazy to expect people to buy BTC when shit hits the fan in the fiat markets.

> Bitcoin is legitimately seen as an alternative to gold. Bitcoin may be an alternative to gold but it is not the same. 1) Gold has intrinsic value. 2) Gold is a tangible asset.

Gold having intrinsic value is a straw man argument for it being different than Fiat currencies. Consider this thought experiment. You are going to live by yourself in the forest for a month. Would you rather have A) a weeks worth of food or B) 1 oz of gold. I think this highlights there is no intrinsic value or at least much lower than what people claim. Obviously, there is place for gold in electronics and circuitry, but aside from specialized applications, the need for gold is pretty low.

Now, I know that I've committed a straw man argument myself by using a contrived example. To that, I'll say that the only "value" one has by having gold in the real world is that other people will trade you for it. But this is exactly the opposite of intrinsic value. The value of gold being entirely fabricated by people's desire to hold it.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#167
post #9

Economist here. You should really keep in mind that the same GDP must go both towards paying off the national debt and paying off household debt. Also you should track commodities (at the very least, the ratio between put & call options).

Are you familiar with MMT?

If you mean Mark To Market, yes. It you mean anything else (and I am wracking my brains trying to come up with another relevant meaning for that acronym), no.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bitcoin is legitimately seen as an alternative to gold. Bitcoin may be an alternative to gold but it is not the same. 1) Gold has intrinsic value. 2) Gold is a tangible asset.

Gold having intrinsic value is a straw man argument for it being different than Fiat currencies. Consider this thought experiment. You are going to live by yourself in the forest for a month. Would you rather have A) a weeks worth of food or B) 1 oz of gold. I think this highlights there is no intrinsic value or at least much lower than what people claim. Obviously, there is place for gold in electronics and circuitr…

Gold's price is not supported by its instrinsic value, I'll give you that. But the "forest" test is absurd. By that definition computers, chemotherapy and candy have no instrinsic value.

Gold's value comes from its (a) millennia-long history of stably holding value across cultures and technological domains and (b) its tangibility and physically-enforced scarcity. Its intrinsic value is a fraction of its market value, in part because the inflated price deters lots of uses.

Re: Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

#170
post #119
post #69

If you're looking for The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns[1], here it is: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gre... This is a long read, but it's worth it. The metric can be calculated in FRED[2], and as a predictor of future returns, it outperforms all of the most common stock market valuation metrics, including cyclically-adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio[3]. (Basic…

Wow, really interesting read. Thanks for the link. Only trouble is that once people find patterns like this, they have a habit of disappearing. Hopefully this one is based on solid enough fundamental market forces that it persists after its publication. It was published in 2013 so we won't know for sure until after 2023.

> Hopefully this one is based on solid enough fundamental market forces that it persists after its publication.

If you can find any way to predict the future price of things, you can make money by performing arbitrage across time (instead of space, which is how people usually think of arbitrage). This (nominally) describes all types of model-informed time-based investment.

The thing with arbitrage is that there's a finite amount of money you can make. If there's a price difference on some cross-listed stock between HKEx and SZSE, you can make money by buying on the cheap one and selling on the pricier one. But, as a side effect of doing so, the price goes up on the cheap one and goes down on the pricier one. There is only a finite amount of stock you can exchange before the price difference approaches zero and you can't make money. The price information has been communicated, and the market has served its function.

The same is true for arbitrage across time. There's only so much money you can spend before the "prices" (more complicated than spacial price differences, because you have to worry about some more complex utility theory to find the expectation value of something in the future) equilibrate and market information has been propagated "through time".

This is why these things "have a habit of disappearing"; every single way of making money via models corresponds to a market inefficiency. Model-based traders are eliminating market inefficiencies and making a cut off the benefit, just like any other good business. The inefficiencies are just more abstract than usual.

So if a model is good, there's no way for it to persist. If it actually predicts something we didn't expect, that corresponds to some inneficiency in the market that some trader can eliminate in exchange for a nice fee.

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