Show HN: Is the stock market going to crash?

Post by treyfitty » Mon, Aug 07, 2017, 4:01 PM UTC

justin66 wrote: post #64

knewter wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Seriously, though, this is a real problem and we need to do something the thing we have to do is not borrow money we can't repay. capitalism is a distributed system. borrowing money you can't repay is a broken local protocol. don't try to fix that with anything but fixing it locally.

> the thing we have to do is not borrow money we can't repay. Literally nobody takes student loans that they are capable of repaying. Why would you, unless you could get a 0% APR? It'd be nice if young people - possessors of great foresight and fonts of wisdom, all - could predict whether they will be able to repay the very substantial loans they're likely to rack up in college. We are not living in a world, or an ec…

Post by myth_drannon » Mon, Aug 07, 2017, 4:03 PM UTC

nautilus12 wrote: post #8

truffle_pig wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the kind words! I'm not an economist myself so I'm hoping others on HN might be able to correct any inaccuracies.

Is this open source? Id like to see how/where you are pulling your data.

Post by rtx » Mon, Aug 07, 2017, 4:04 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #125

misja111 wrote: post #78

The metric used to calculate market overvaluation is interesting but it has little value for predicting a stock market crash. Let's take he last 3 major US crashes: 1987: this crash was caused by automated trading systems which could run wild in the absence of any prevention regulations such as circuit breakers 2000: the collapse of the dotcom bubble 2008: start of the financial crisis caused mainly by opaque credit…

No, the 2008 crash wasn't a black swan. It just came from the debt side, rather than the equity side. It was clear this was coming. In 2004, I wrote this, on my "downside.com": [1] The next crash looks to be housing-related. Fannie Mae is in trouble. But not because of their accounting irregularities. The problem is more fundamental. They borrow short, lend long, and paper over the resulting interest rate risk with d…

Post by bousaid » Mon, Aug 07, 2017, 4:08 PM UTC

KasianFranks wrote: post #129

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in 2008/09...most people in the world lost confidence in banking systems You mean when everyone sold securities, moved to cash, and bought Treasuries, CDs and bank deposits?

And Bitcoin Ref: http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/eurozone-turning-to-bitc...

Post by odammit » Mon, Aug 07, 2017, 4:10 PM UTC