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Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

rankedvote.co

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Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#121
post #32

Ranking the voting systems: STAR Voting > Approval Voting > Ranked Choice Voting > Plurality ("pick only one") voting. Ranked Choice Voting is marginally better than plurality voting, but it has problems. The chief defect with Ranked Choice Voting is its non-monotonicity, whereby increasing your support for your genuine favorite can actually hurt their odds of winning. This may be what happened in Alaska [1]. STAR Vo…

I read the linked article and I found it kinda scatterbrained. It seemed to dispute claims or tweets about how a vote works, along with what head to head voting outcomes would be.

I do find how the math works out interesting. But I don’t find either disputes all that compelling.

The head to head polling is interesting… but that’s not how the election works. The fact that two systems would be different seems normal to me.

Folks who go to a ranked choice vote and pick just one, that’s their choice too. Same with people who don’t vote and so on.

Not to say the article is worthless, it is interesting, but I’m not sure I agree with the conclusions.

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because of 5 candidates, there are 3 I approve, and 2 I hate. But of the 3 I approve, I love one and only reluctantly accept the other two. People often have strong feelings about their top preference, and approval rating destroys that. And then in my example, the voter is tempted to approve just 1 in order to give them a better chance of winning. (Known as bullet voting.) It's much more intuitive and less cognitive…

> And then in my example, the voter is tempted to approve just 1 in order to give them a better chance of winning. (Known as bullet voting.) This is fine. The probability with which a voter bullet votes vs votes three conveys the degree of preference for that candidates. This is not as informative as score voting on a wider range (because okay, degree of preference doesn't map perfectly linearly with probability of v…

> The probability with which a voter bullet votes vs votes three conveys the degree of preference for that candidates.

I can see why that would be a useful assumption, but is there really empirical evidence to confirm that?

A much bigger factor in determining what the voter does, I would guess, is whether they hear activists for their party telling them (perhaps disingenuously) that their candidate won't win if you "betray" them by approving your second or third preference.

So there will be probability distributions of parties that try spreading such a message, and people who hear such a message, and voters who are loyal enough or risk averse enough to follow the advice, but I don't think the combined distribution matches closely enough to the genuine "degree of preference".

As a result, some candidates will get a tactical boost at the expense of their rivals, and eventually all voters will start to question whether they should have voted differently.

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#123
post #13
post #5

Hi! I actually made a similar site for my own purposes - https://poller.io - and I've been using it with friends for a while. One interesting finding. I was expecting that Instant Runoff would be the method we all preferred. I also included plurality winner, Borda Count and the Condorcet winner (if there was one) in the list of results. After using this with friends for decisions, I realized that a lot of choices tha…

Isn't Borda Count just Score voting where you enforce that voters can't give two options the same amount of support? I would be curious why people would prefer Borda over Score if so.

Not at all. Score Voting as usually defined is continuous on [0,1]. Rescaling to e.g. [1,5] doesn't change this. Restricting to integers on that does; but if there are fewer than 5 candidates, equivalent rankings can still differ for total scores. It's only equivalent if you pick an integer scale [K, K+N] with N candidates, K arbitrary.

That said, I prefer score, or even approval, as that's what strategic score devolves to, but without huge amounts of information loss.

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't approval voting just a signified form of Ranked Choice Voting -- one without prioritization? So the strength of RCV would then be more built in tie-breaking.

No. Approval voting is actually a minimized score voting system, and although intuitively a two-point feels like this should convey less information, the way the aggregation rule works (straight addition—or specifically in the approval voting case, tallying), you're actually extracting significantly more information out of a set of approval votes than you would from a ranked choice vote. To put it another way: given…

Wow, thank you!!

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And then in my example, the voter is tempted to approve just 1 in order to give them a better chance of winning. (Known as bullet voting.) This is fine. The probability with which a voter bullet votes vs votes three conveys the degree of preference for that candidates. This is not as informative as score voting on a wider range (because okay, degree of preference doesn't map perfectly linearly with probability of v…

Ranked choice absolutely conveys more information than approval. It's not as much as score voting, but it's mathematically false to say it's the same amount as approval. Among five candidates, approval would be 2^5-2=30 possibilities (almost 5 bits of information, assuming you can't approve/disapprove all because that's the same as not voting), while ranked choice would be 5!=120 possibilities (almost 7 bits of infor…

Do I contradict myself?

Very well then I contradict myself,

(I am large, I contain multitudes.)

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#126

though I think the app looks great. I’ve never seen the point of ranked choice. Approval voting seems faster to vote, easier to implement and explain

Thanks! And both approval and RCV are steps in the right direction. For whatever reason, RCV has been implemented more broadly (but still just a tiny fraction of the US). I've been very encouraged by the results in Alaska after the special election that just happened there in August. 85% found it simple. 73% ranked multiple candidates. And the election workers implementing it had a flawless go of it. Some data from o…

> 85% found it simple. 73% ranked multiple candidates.

But what's conspicuously absent from these statistics is how happy the voters are with the outcome (compared to a counterfactual world where the election had been carried out under FPTP and a potentially different candidate won).

Sadly it was an outcome which allowed Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) to make the argument[0] that:

> 60% of Alaska voters voted for a Republican, but thanks to a convoluted process and ballot exhaustion — which disenfranchises voters — a Democrat ‘won.’

This is exactly the sort of well-poisoning that supporters of other voting reforms are afraid of.

[0] https://www.independentsentinel.com/60-of-voters-cast-ballot...

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#127
post #32

Ranking the voting systems: STAR Voting > Approval Voting > Ranked Choice Voting > Plurality ("pick only one") voting. Ranked Choice Voting is marginally better than plurality voting, but it has problems. The chief defect with Ranked Choice Voting is its non-monotonicity, whereby increasing your support for your genuine favorite can actually hurt their odds of winning. This may be what happened in Alaska [1]. STAR Vo…

Every voting system has some flaws (see: Arrow's impossibility theorem), and Instant Runoff Voting definitely saw its worst-case scenario rear its ugly head in Alaska: A Condorcet winner existed (Nick Begich), he lost, and voters whose first choice was Plain and second choice was Begich could theoretically, retrospectivally, all changed their first votes from Palin to Begich to have him win rather than Mary Peltola.

It's important that I say retrospectively. This was a house race with national coverage, tons of high-quality polling from pollsters with nothing better to do, and it was still absolutely not clear from that polling that Begich would do better than Palin in round 2, or that Palin was likely to beat Begich in round 1. If I had the opinions of those hypothetically strategic voters, and I were completely strategic, and completely tuned into that polling, I still would have voted honestly. The strategy was only apparent after the fact.

Thinking about "defense in depth" against this scenario, we'd be remiss not to mention Condorcet ranked choice voting methods, which always elect a Condorcet winner, and only resort to (game-able) elimination procedures if there isn't one. Not only would that have resulted in a better outcome in Alaska, it would have made the possibility of strategic voting much, much more remote, both because a strategic scenario would be much less likely, and because that strategic scenario would be much less visible before the election.

With score voting, strategies are always available and almost always obvious: just exaggerate your score differences between the most likely candidates. The fact that strategic dishonesty would have helped in Alaska is a fair criticism of IRV, but the real commonness of strategic scenarios in STAR and score are a more primary feature.

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be an even greater shame to be stuck with first-past-the-post while we squabble over its replacement. I vastly prefer score or approval voting over ranked-choice, but I also vastly prefer even ranked-choice over FPTP and will be voting accordingly here in Nevada. We can always adopt score or approval voting later.

Same. "Perfect is the enemy of good" as they say. I used to be vehemently opposed to RCV; I'm still against it. It's leagues better than FPTP and my hope is that it opens the door for improvements like STAR or anything that can satisfy the Condorcet criterion.

I'm not convinced that instant runoff is actually better than FPTP.

Without tactical voting (and good information to support it) the first thing IRV does (along with most variations that in practice get the label "RCV", though of course this doesn't apply to all ranked methods) is to throw out the compromise candidate that everyone likes.

In the current situation, I am concerned that most people will prefer their particular flavor of theocracy to finding ways to get along (which they probably prefer to anyone else's flavor of theocracy). We already struggle with similar dynamics a bit, but it's the devil we know and I really don't want it magnified.

Re: Show HN: RankedVote – SurveyMonkey but focused on ranked-choice voting

#130

though I think the app looks great. I’ve never seen the point of ranked choice. Approval voting seems faster to vote, easier to implement and explain

Approval voting allows bullet voting, which is not ideal: https://fairvote.org/the_troubling_record_of_approval_voting...

(a) bullet voting isn't actually a problem

https://www.rangevoting.org/BulletBugaboo.html

(b) Approval voting only incentivizes bullet voting when that is very close to actually capturing the voter's intent. The strategic thing to do is vote approve on all those you like better than whoever you think the most likely candidate to win is.

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