Would be interesting to insert the classic 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Maybe also potentially a commodity index as well.
Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns
101–110 of 279 posts
Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns
#102Wish it had the 70s, or ideally, the whole 20th century. The 80s-2010s has been a period of unusually low inflation and consistent market returns, buoyed by the end of the Cold War and entry of the developing world into the world economy. There's a good chance that we revert to the mean going forwards and see much more geopolitical instability and resource constraints.
So, what does a young person do these days? First few years out of college were just "max out 401k contributions into some target fund" + build emergency fund, but now that I've amassed more cash than what an emergency fund requires, what does one do? Originally, my plan was to use it for a house down-payment, but with the mortgage rates having nearly doubled in the last 6 months, that's kind of out of the question a…
Don't buy a house until the real estate market crashes. Then buy.
I bought a fixer-upper in 2008 for 200k; sold it for 425k 5 years later. Recently it sold for 650k (we still get redfin notifications.) In the meantime I bought a house for 625k (nice house with some rough edges) and sold it 18 months ago in covid real estate madness for 950k. We certainly put money into both houses over time, but we'd never have been able to do what we did had we not started at the bottom of the market.
Wait a year or two.
Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns
#103What is the Total Real Drawdown chart supposed to show? Does it just reset where 0% is every time the fund reaches a new market high?
Yes, that’s correct.
Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
My philosophy is essentially buy low, hold forever. I don't put money that I might realistically need in the market
I mean… that defeats the point, no? Surely you must plan to use the money at some point , even if that is just enjoying the end of your days. That's still a time horizon. > I don't put money that I might realistically need in the market While it's great that you might have a time horizon far, far into the future, not everyone has that luxury. In theory , I'm supposed to purchase a home & start a family around this po…
I think you have a point. I should have been more clear. What I'm saying is I don't account for anticipated withdraw when investing. That's not to say I don't or won't do it, just that it's not a consideration when putting the money in.
I treat the question of if I can afford to take money out or if it is a good time to take money out as an entirely separate topic.
I found that trying to optimize investing and weigh risks for a short-term Horizon will drive you crazy.
Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns
#105This is neat you can see the s&p having gained approximately 6 percent on average and inflation targeted almost to be 2 percent.
Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
So, what does a young person do these days? First few years out of college were just "max out 401k contributions into some target fund" + build emergency fund, but now that I've amassed more cash than what an emergency fund requires, what does one do? Originally, my plan was to use it for a house down-payment, but with the mortgage rates having nearly doubled in the last 6 months, that's kind of out of the question a…
House prices are at a peak and stocks are in a trough. Try to make clear economic decisions and don't be enamored with home ownership. A house is a huge illiquid asset that you can live in. There's calculators out there to use but know that buying a house usually only makes sense if you're definitely staying for at least 10 years. And don't be swayed by headlines. Big tech is doing extremely well and isn't slowing do…
The only time stocks have been this expensive was just before the great depression and just before 2008. They are practically the most overvalued they've ever been, ignoring the last year or two of QE, which were intuitively overpriced. Thinking they are cheap now is how you get burned.
Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's not true. It's MOSTLY large cap US stocks, but it has some mid-caps, pretty much regardless of how you define mid-caps.
S&P publish a mid-cap index: the S&P400. It doesn't overlap the S&P500[1]. You have to have a generous definition of mid-cap to describe even the smallest S&P500 component as mid-cap. The 500th component has a market cap of ~$6B. Regardless, they're all US stocks; the comment I was responding to claimed they were not. [1]: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/images/campaign/707133-us-...
LOL.
First the S&P 500 captures 80% of the entire US market, 80%! [0]
Second, 6B is well within the middle of the Mid-cap range for at least one common definition: "Mid-cap (or mid-capitalization) is the term that is used to designate companies with a market cap (capitalization)—or market value—between $2 and $10 billion. " [1]
Now some people might define mid-cap differently(and S&P tries to), but that doesn't change the math. If 80% of the US market is the S&P 500, then by definition some mid-cap has to be in there, or one has a very distorted view of what the middle means.
US public companies are giant these days. Of course there are mid-cap only indexes(and funds), that has nothing to do with the S&P 500 though.
As for all US stocks, it definitely depends on how one defines a US stock. S&P obviously has their definition, and it may or may not agree with your personal definition, but I generally agree that the S&P 500 is basically US companies.
0: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#ove... 1: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/midcapstock.asp
Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns
#108What tech stack are you using? The speed is impressive.
BACKEND:
It's about 3000 lines of Crystal code https://crystal-lang.org/ -- it's been an absolute dream to program in. Ruby-like syntax, statically compiled performance. Nice standard library. Would recommend :)
Performance == caching
Local ephemeral filesystem for shortest-term caching.
Redis for shared medium-term caching and locking.
S3-compatible object storage for longest-term caching (for raw data feeds pulled every evening by a cronjob).
FRONTEND:
Bootstrap
uPlot https://github.com/leeoniya/uPlot
Just a sprinkle of inline JS+CSS on the page.
Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're right, and the conventional advice has been to have a mix of stocks and bonds, with bonds to reduce volatility and preserve some of the wealth that you might need to access in the shorter term. However, what's unusual about the past few months is that bonds have been getting whacked too! Here's a comparison of four Vanguard funds, with stock:bond ratios of 80:20, 60:40, 40:60, 20:80 respectively: https://total…
Bond funds are different than bonds. With bonds, you can hold them to maturity and not get whacked.
You can hold bond funds to the maturity date of the underlying bonds and get the same result (minus fees).
But in either case, you still get whacked with inflation, which would show up on this chart as a drop.
Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns
#110I don't understand the details on how inflation is measured here, but I expected the US Dollar curve to be a constant 1, after the normalization. However, it seems to go down. What does that mean? That the dollar loses value faster than "money is printed"?