Are emergency stockpiles calculated correctly? China should not be the first to be exposed.
For the importer nodes those are IEA mandates. In the specific China case, the UN Comtrade data doesn't report sanctioned oil (Iran)
Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
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Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#12What modelling approach are you using, and where can I learn more about it? Really cool, btw.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#13What modelling approach are you using, and where can I learn more about it? Really cool, btw.
Thanks, the modeling is similar math to the financial banking networks paper by Eisenberg and Noe Systemic Risk in Financial Systems (used as a stress tool by regulators after the 2008 financial crisis). My adaptation is combining this with the inventory management part in my article: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.17491
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#14But in reality this won’t happen, because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time or they will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they are providing to them.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#15Are emergency stockpiles calculated correctly? China should not be the first to be exposed.
China hides its stockpile numbers, and estimates are only what we can see. After buying loads of sanctioned oil for stockpiles, they are perfectly positioned to take advantage of trumps blunders in the straight and likely will get to set the price of oil if they aren’t already..
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#16But in reality this won’t happen, because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time or they will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they are providing to them.
Exactly, which is what makes the simulation interesting because nobody really knows China's reserves clock.
But with the tool, you can put your guess number and see that the game of chicken also has an expiration date for them
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#17Are emergency stockpiles calculated correctly? China should not be the first to be exposed.
China hides its stockpile numbers, and estimates are only what we can see. After buying loads of sanctioned oil for stockpiles, they are perfectly positioned to take advantage of trumps blunders in the straight and likely will get to set the price of oil if they aren’t already..
Which is the interesting game-theoretic aspect of the whole conflict. China really hasn't revealed their hand
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#18But in reality this won’t happen, because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time or they will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they are providing to them.
Can't Iran be selective and only allow Chinese ships through?
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#19But in reality this won’t happen, because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time or they will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they are providing to them.
Can't Iran be selective and only allow Chinese ships through?
This is a nice idea. I will build this a feature on the scenarios menu. And it would give an estimate of how much time doing this buys China under different configurations
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#20But in reality this won’t happen, because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time or they will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they are providing to them.
> because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time...
Iran's political leadership is amenable to negotiating but their incumbent military leadership which now calls the shots aren't [0][1].
The current incumbents in the IRGC and Artesh are now vets who were deployed on the frontlines in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq and are deeply anti-Western as a result.
> or they (Iran) will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they (China) are providing to them...
This is why Iran has been leveraging Russia as well [2][3].
Russia is trying to link the Ukraine War with the Iran War ("stop giving Ukraine targeting capabilities and we'll stop giving it to Iran").
Iran's military leadership doesn't trust China because they undermined Iran's position on Hormuz by backing the UAE [4], and because hardliners still harbor negative views of China and Eastern culture as undermining the precepts of the Islamic Revolution [5][6][7] and still calling them "uncultured orientals" (شرق زدۀ بی فرهنگ)
[0] - https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediati...
[1] - https://quwa.org/podcasts/pulse-check/the-islamabad-talks-ar...
[2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-strikes-cia-f...
[3] - https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IB-10_25-Ir...
[4] - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/china-maintains-stance-on-...
[5] - http://www.imam-khomeini.ir/fa/c78_117016/%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%A7...
[6] - https://ensani.ir/fa/article/93161/%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D9%88...