I actually stumbled upon this a while ago from social media and the web version has a somewhat annoying latency, so I wrote my own version in Python. It uses numpy so it's faster. https://gist.github.com/kccqzy/d3fa7cdb064e03b16acfbefb76645... Thank you filiph for this brilliant idea!
Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator
11–20 of 170 posts
Re: Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator
#12I love this! As a tool for helping folks with a good base in arithmetic develop statistical intuition, I can't think offhand of what I've seen that's better.
Re: Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator
#13This reminds me of https://www.getguesstimate.com/ , a probabilistic spreadsheet.
The authors of Guesstimate are now working on https://www.squiggle-language.com/
Someone also turned it into the https://github.com/rethinkpriorities/squigglepy python library
Re: Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator
#14This reminds me of https://www.getguesstimate.com/ , a probabilistic spreadsheet.
I was looking for this. Seen it (or a similar tool) ages ago.
Want to use it every 3 months or so to pretend that we know what we can squeeze in the roadmap for the quarter.
Re: Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator
#15I actually stumbled upon this a while ago from social media and the web version has a somewhat annoying latency, so I wrote my own version in Python. It uses numpy so it's faster. https://gist.github.com/kccqzy/d3fa7cdb064e03b16acfbefb76645... Thank you filiph for this brilliant idea!
[deleted]
Re: Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator
#16Re: Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes it is.
Can you explain how? I'm an (aspiring)
I didn't peruse the source code. I just read the linked article in its entirety and it says
> The computation is quite slow. In order to stay as flexible as possible, I'm using the Monte Carlo method. Which means the calculator is running about 250K AST-based computations for every calculation you put forth.
So therefore I conclude Monte Carlo is being used.
Re: Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator
#18is this the same as error propagation? I used to do a lot of that during my physics degree
Re: Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator
#19i like it and i skimmed the post but i don't understand why the default example 100 / 4~6 has a median of 20? there is no way of knowing why the range is between 4 and 6
Re: Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator
#20This reminds me of https://www.getguesstimate.com/ , a probabilistic spreadsheet.
[deleted]