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Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

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Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#11

Post by fishtoaster »

A good counter to "I could have made $X bazillion if I'd gotten into Y thing at Z time" is to remember that you could have doubled your money at the horse track yesterday by betting on the right horse at the right time.

So the only question is: what's different between Y thing and horse betting? Did you have enough information at Z time to know you should have invested? Or are you just wishing you could have predicted the future?

Anyway, that's the framing I use to counter the regret of not getting into any given asset that's appreciated a lot in a short period: BTC, tesla stock, etc.

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#12

Post by vages »

aaronwalker wrote: post #6

Ive heard conflicting viewpoints on the current crypto crash. Some say that this is different than the rest, and that crypto has already reached it’s all time max, whereas others say that this is just another pullback before an even larger bull run. With crypto, it is so hard to know what it’s actual value should be, since unlike a stock there are no earnings and thus you can’t look at the P/E ratio to determine its…

When I had crypto assets, I came upon this article about “Greater fool theory”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

It made me sell all my crypto (luckily at a profit), and I have not looked back.

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#13

Post by [deleted] »

alephnan wrote: post #8
TedShiller wrote: post #5

You could have made trillions of dollars with ANY asset in ANY time period if you time it right, so this is not special or unique

> trillions of dollars with ANY asset There SOME assets which are not worth trillions, so no. > in ANY time period There are SOME time periods which any given assets decline in value. Over an infinite time scale, the survival rate of everything is zero. But of course you're speaking about selecting the optimal interval in that time scale. The problem is we are not immortals, infinite time scales is irrelevant. Many a…

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#14

Post by bestnameever »

aaronwalker wrote: post #6

Ive heard conflicting viewpoints on the current crypto crash. Some say that this is different than the rest, and that crypto has already reached it’s all time max, whereas others say that this is just another pullback before an even larger bull run. With crypto, it is so hard to know what it’s actual value should be, since unlike a stock there are no earnings and thus you can’t look at the P/E ratio to determine its…

> I’m curious to hear what you guys think—-and how you determine the value of crypto.

The value at any point in time is determined on the exchanges. I think a better question is what changes the value, creates the volatility, and so forth.

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#15

Post by bcrosby95 »

fishtoaster wrote: post #11

A good counter to "I could have made $X bazillion if I'd gotten into Y thing at Z time" is to remember that you could have doubled your money at the horse track yesterday by betting on the right horse at the right time. So the only question is: what's different between Y thing and horse betting? Did you have enough information at Z time to know you should have invested? Or are you just wishing you could have predicte…

Whenever someone says "I could have made X money if I put it into Y" I say "yeah, crystal balls are in short supply".

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#16

Post by puranjay »

aaronwalker wrote: post #6

Ive heard conflicting viewpoints on the current crypto crash. Some say that this is different than the rest, and that crypto has already reached it’s all time max, whereas others say that this is just another pullback before an even larger bull run. With crypto, it is so hard to know what it’s actual value should be, since unlike a stock there are no earnings and thus you can’t look at the P/E ratio to determine its…

Honestly, no way to tell at this point. Low interest rate and QE enabled all sorts of funny money shenanigans. Like startups raising billions with no real revenue and wildly unprofitable unit economics. Crypto benefited greatlyfrom this low interest regime too. If you had to borrow money at 8% interest, you wouldn't be as callous with it.

Crypto has only existed in this funny money monetary environment. Good chance it all collapses if interest rates are too high by the time of the next BTC halvening (iirc around mid 2024) and there aren't enough bids to perpetuate the "next cycle will be bigger than the last" pattern.

But at the same time, its also true that the awful central bank management that prompted the creation of BTC is also at its peak awfulness right now.

So really, wait and watch.

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#17

Post by Jistern »

aaronwalker wrote: post #6

Ive heard conflicting viewpoints on the current crypto crash. Some say that this is different than the rest, and that crypto has already reached it’s all time max, whereas others say that this is just another pullback before an even larger bull run. With crypto, it is so hard to know what it’s actual value should be, since unlike a stock there are no earnings and thus you can’t look at the P/E ratio to determine its…

As I learned from a quotation which is attributed to Mark Cuban, so-called “cyptocurrencies” are collectibles like baseball cards, rare postage stamps, and French impressionist paintings. Fundamentally they're all fads. None of them have any significant inherent value. Typically two types of people purchase them: either avid collectors or speculators.

Don't gamble. It's not a productive use of your time. It's also a vice. Spend your time doing something that is valuable and productive. Don't fritter it away or one day you will probably regret it.

Re: Show HN: The Coinbase FOMO Calculator

#19

Post by Jistern »

vages wrote: post #12
aaronwalker wrote: post #6

Ive heard conflicting viewpoints on the current crypto crash. Some say that this is different than the rest, and that crypto has already reached it’s all time max, whereas others say that this is just another pullback before an even larger bull run. With crypto, it is so hard to know what it’s actual value should be, since unlike a stock there are no earnings and thus you can’t look at the P/E ratio to determine its…

When I had crypto assets, I came upon this article about “Greater fool theory” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory It made me sell all my crypto (luckily at a profit), and I have not looked back.

Yup. You nailed it. It's a fad which which most buyers and sellers use as a means to engage in gambling.
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