Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: Is an Autonomy Fund a viable business model?

news.ycombinator.com

1–10 of 46 posts

Ask HN: Is an Autonomy Fund a viable business model?

#1
Here’s a software business model that helps engineers to retain control of their companies and aim for excellence, instead of having everything they build get hijacked by MBAs. It encourages engineers to build profitable companies rather than “get big or go home” (VC).

It’ll encourage mid-growth companies. See: bit.ly/16guxvy. I want this thing to generate some Real Technology, and focus on hard problems instead of social media bullshit optimized for instant results. It’s for the mid-risk 10-40%/year growth range that’s underserved by existing finance.

An Autonomy Fund’s like so: engineers get a base salary (say $125k) and the investors get a percentage (say 37.5%) of any profits they make. What do they work on? Whatever they want. Their own projects. Consulting. Startups. The fund owns part of it, but they have full autonomy over what they do.

One idea here is self-organization. If two teams decide to work together and pool resources, they can. Since they're collectives of autonomous individuals, they don't need to worry about the (morale-killing) processes of merging HR structures and org charts. They just pull together and work.

Who’d fund it? I think local governments might. (Am I right? Or off the mark?) It creates jobs, supports local businesses, and may build the next Facebook.

I see this as the ultimate symbiosis between cities and tech. They want to make their cities tech hubs instead of having all the action go to star cities. We’d vet programmers, something a non-programmer can't (cf. Design Paradox).

I'd aim for top-5% “10Xers”, with initial class size ~28 and a 2-year initial runway ($7 million). If the pilot succeeded, then similar funds could be launched all over the world, and there might be a business in setting cities up with their own Autonomy Funds.

Is this something that:

(a) local governments would support, and

(b) a substantial number of top-5% people would join, even if it meant moving to a small city (~50-250k inhabitants)?

Re: Ask HN: Is an Autonomy Fund a viable business model?

#2
I think the hardest part would be getting the people funding it to agree to it. The plan, as you've stated it, gives them very little control of how their funds are used. I don't think it will be easy to convince the investors to trust the engineers not to just take the salary while producing nothing useful. If you can find a way around that problem, you might be on to something.

Re: Ask HN: Is an Autonomy Fund a viable business model?

#3
The problem is that most local governments that want a tech hub are either focusing on tech already and will think they don't need this, or are on the other end of the spectrum and simply don't care.

The key is to find a city on the cusp of making a serious decision to pursue becoming a tech hub. Google Fiber could be an incentive, or it might make them complacent, who knows? Maybe Provo? You can't really aim too small, small towns have serious conservative budgets and for good reason.

Austin would be nice, I'm not sure how insecure they feel about their status as a tech city compared to NYC and SF. What I can tell you for sure is that they are seriously affordable. You can trivially get a house for less than $200k in a decent neighborhood. That they're already competing for the tech city thing is a bonus.

Google Fiber in Austin could end up bringing in some fresh blood, even if it doesn't make that much of a difference on its own.

Austin has a $3.1 billion budget, which makes this more feasible for them than a sub-$1bn budget city. $25mm planning and development budget.

https://assets.austintexas.gov/budget/12-13/downloads/Vol_I_...

See here to see their job development efforts.

Anything involving as much money as this does is going to have be sold as a job development play. I don't know if that argument can be made yet or not, I'd need to discuss it.

Disclaimer: I'm headed to Austin as soon as I'm freed up in my consulting work to do a startup.

Re: Ask HN: Is an Autonomy Fund a viable business model?

#4

I think the hardest part would be getting the people funding it to agree to it. The plan, as you've stated it, gives them very little control of how their funds are used. I don't think it will be easy to convince the investors to trust the engineers not to just take the salary while producing nothing useful. If you can find a way around that problem, you might be on to something.

Maybe I'm naive here, but I think most software engineers (especially good ones) are careerist enough to want to produce something useful. That doesn't mean that there won't be some good-faith failures, but I think most engineers are already naturally aligned toward wanting to add value.

Top engineers aren't that way when a company takes 100% of the proceeds and a boss takes all the credit; but this is still allowing engineers to get a 62.5% cut.

Re: Ask HN: Is an Autonomy Fund a viable business model?

#5

The problem is that most local governments that want a tech hub are either focusing on tech already and will think they don't need this, or are on the other end of the spectrum and simply don't care. The key is to find a city on the cusp of making a serious decision to pursue becoming a tech hub. Google Fiber could be an incentive, or it might make them complacent, who knows? Maybe Provo? You can't really aim too sma…

Getting Austin to sign up for that would be a huge coup. I don't think you'd have any trouble getting great engineers to move out there, given how many strong tech companies are already there. That would be ideal. But I'd also want to talk to other municipalities and see what terms they'd have to offer.

It's definitely a job development play. These engineers are going to be founding companies that, if successful, are going to employ large numbers of people.

Re: Ask HN: Is an Autonomy Fund a viable business model?

#6
I would love to see something like this. I think this shouldn't just be limited to one city or industry though. Assuming that this is successfully attempted in one city, it might be a good idea to try it in other cities while focusing on various industries that speak to the existing core competencies of that city. So for example, a Detroit version of the Autonomy Fund could focus on funding autonomous individuals within the automotive industry.

As for choice of initial tech hub, my vote goes to Pittsburgh. The population size is [roughly] what you're going for at ~300K. The housing market here is great. It already has a tech-friendly local government. Plus Carnegie Mellon is here, ready to feed top young CS talent directly into the autonomous positions.

For what it's worth Pittsburgh was also voted as the most livable city in the U.S. a couple years ago [1]. I might be biased since I live/work in Pittsburgh and take CS classes at CMU, but by that same token it also means I'm speaking with first-hand experience.

[1] http://www.marketplace.org/topics/life/news-brief/its-offici...

Re: Ask HN: Is an Autonomy Fund a viable business model?

#7

I think the hardest part would be getting the people funding it to agree to it. The plan, as you've stated it, gives them very little control of how their funds are used. I don't think it will be easy to convince the investors to trust the engineers not to just take the salary while producing nothing useful. If you can find a way around that problem, you might be on to something.

Maybe I'm naive here, but I think most software engineers (especially good ones) are careerist enough to want to produce something useful. That doesn't mean that there won't be some good-faith failures, but I think most engineers are already naturally aligned toward wanting to add value. Top engineers aren't that way when a company takes 100% of the proceeds and a boss takes all the credit; but this is still allowing…

I think with proper vetting you would be able to find engineers who would put in an honest effort in those circumstances. I just don't think it will be easy to convince investors of that.

Re: Ask HN: Is an Autonomy Fund a viable business model?

#8
post #6

I would love to see something like this. I think this shouldn't just be limited to one city or industry though. Assuming that this is successfully attempted in one city, it might be a good idea to try it in other cities while focusing on various industries that speak to the existing core competencies of that city. So for example, a Detroit version of the Autonomy Fund could focus on funding autonomous individuals wit…

Pittsburgh would be a great choice, I agree.

Do you think the local government would invest?

As I work on the idea, I'm starting to realize that it needs to involve public and private investment. The problem seems to be to convince investors that we can audit the programmers. I'd probably need to hire a well-known programmer as, at least, an advisor. Even if he didn't want to make the decisions and conduct the interviews, it'd be huge to have his name on the letter.

The cities where I see the best odds of this taking shape are: Austin, Pittsburgh, Madison, and Portland. Apologies if I missed one; there are plenty of other good places, but those are the 4 that would be the big targets.

I agree that one city is just a start. The concept needs a pilot, but ultimately the goal isn't to make one specific city a new Silicon Valley (if that happens, I've failed) but to encourage more equidistribution of talent and, as a nice side effect, also squeeze out the real estate assholes (who take advantage of the fact that our career needs force us to crowd into expensive cities).

Once it's going multi-city, though, I'd need someone else to run it. I could be the lion for a couple years, but eventually I'd want to get back into code.

Re: Ask HN: Is an Autonomy Fund a viable business model?

#9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I'm naive here, but I think most software engineers (especially good ones) are careerist enough to want to produce something useful. That doesn't mean that there won't be some good-faith failures, but I think most engineers are already naturally aligned toward wanting to add value. Top engineers aren't that way when a company takes 100% of the proceeds and a boss takes all the credit; but this is still allowing…

I think with proper vetting you would be able to find engineers who would put in an honest effort in those circumstances. I just don't think it will be easy to convince investors of that.

Ah yes, Theory X and Theory Y. I would like to believe that defection rates will be low. Are people going to abuse the system? Occasionally, yes. My feeling is that the defection rate will be low enough not to compromise the project. If someone uses the fund to build his career, then goes off to the Valley, good for him. "Alumnus Bob is now VP/Eng at Facebook" is part of our pitch.

The trust issue is why local governments might be the best place to start:

(a) they know they're not technologists and can't evaluate 10x programmers. I can. I think I can either (i) establish that I can, or (ii) bring someone more established and better than I am to do the vetting.

(b) even if they fail, much of the money goes back into the city, which means it's not totally spilled on the floor. Fail case: those tech bozos made fools of themselves, but they ate at local restaurants for a couple years.

It wouldn't only be local investors. I don't want short-term investors in this, though. I'd take a Buffett-esque approach of having the share price around $50,000. Value investors only, because talent takes time to ripen.

Re: Ask HN: Is an Autonomy Fund a viable business model?

#10
post #6

I would love to see something like this. I think this shouldn't just be limited to one city or industry though. Assuming that this is successfully attempted in one city, it might be a good idea to try it in other cities while focusing on various industries that speak to the existing core competencies of that city. So for example, a Detroit version of the Autonomy Fund could focus on funding autonomous individuals wit…

I don't think Pittsburgh has the funding to do it. You're looking at a budget of ~$450mm.

I think the funding, rather than the locale, is the blocker here.

Post reply on HN