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Ask HN: Do you think AI is threat to developers job?

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Ask HN: Do you think AI is threat to developers job?

#1
During my discussions with individuals who integrate AI into their daily lives, I discovered what I was hoping to hear.

Have you noticed any change in your work productivity?

The majority of them said that they were able to reduce the time required for building. Imagine a project that used to take three days, is now wrapped up in just one and a half days! Thanks to AI, we're talking about a 50% reduction in completion time

Do you think AI is a threat to a developer's job?

It's not just about coding skills; it's about how smartly you wield those skills. Embracing AI isn't a threat to your job; it's a guarantee of job security.

What do you think? Share your thoughts and experiences below

Re: Ask HN: Do you think AI is threat to developers job?

#2
my 2c

- it is a good helper, if you know what you need.

- cannot replace devs, most time, even designers/PMs cannot defines the requirement/functions clearly, how could AI get the right code? each product has its own logic, devs need to work out the architecture based on experience/limitations/comprises, don't feel AI could not do these yet ?

- AI/LLM repeats/copies existing codes from somewhere, it does not make new codes, right ?

Re: Ask HN: Do you think AI is threat to developers job?

#3
I don't see how it could be a threat.

For the simpler work, AI tools are as much of a threat as frameworks or existing code generators.

For higher level work, AI tools can be great assistants, but they are very far from being able to understanding large existing code bases, inter-dependencies, side-effects, non-functional requirements, etc.

Not to mention that most software development projects fail for non-technical reasons, which code-focused models also can't help with.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think AI is threat to developers job?

#4
> The majority of them said that they were able to reduce the time required for building. Imagine a project that used to take three days, is now wrapped up in just one and a half days! Thanks to AI, we're talking about a 50% reduction in completion time

I don't know about other people but the time I spend coding isn't the majority of the time a project takes. Most of the time and effort goes into all the stuff around the coding - investigating the issues being addressed, specifying what a solution would do, testing the solution built, etc.

> Do you think AI is a threat to a developer's job?

I don't think it's a threat to skilled developers. Personally I'm looking forward to a long career fixing up all the code produced by below average developers relying on AIs without any real understanding of the code being produced :D

Re: Ask HN: Do you think AI is threat to developers job?

#5
No,

there was already an "AI-like", but much more superior solution available for decades at this point:

Outsourcing the work to a country with low wages. Even nowadays you can get highly skilled workers for like $50 a month in some African countries.

Pay them $500 a month instead and you've got yourself highly motivated employees, who are extremely eager to learn whatever skills you require.

In the very long run robots and "AI" will of course wipe out 99.9% of the available jobs, but at that point we'll have to think about other solutions on the political level anyways.

It is reasonable to assume any jobs done exclusively in front of computers are very early on the chopping block, but as long as you don't see the business majors or business jurists being sent out the door enmasse, I wouldn't worry too much.

And at that point you'll still have first class logical deduction and math skills and a lot of knowledge about algorithms, which are highly valuable skills in general.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think AI is threat to developers job?

#6

No, there was already an "AI-like", but much more superior solution available for decades at this point: Outsourcing the work to a country with low wages. Even nowadays you can get highly skilled workers for like $50 a month in some African countries. Pay them $500 a month instead and you've got yourself highly motivated employees, who are extremely eager to learn whatever skills you require. In the very long run rob…

>Even nowadays you can get highly skilled workers for like $50 a month in some African countries.

No way. The market is getting normalised and even Indian devs make good salary nowadays. Now there's basically rest of world and US market salaries.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think AI is threat to developers job?

#7
Yes.

Developers who know how to use LLMs are some % faster and more productive. You can increase the % enough so that overall demand for developers goes down or doesn't grow as much as it would have otherwise.

It's not "my company laid us all off and replaced us with an LLM" but more like "this year our team is hiring for 3 new people instead of 4" - that's still a significant impact on the job market. And who knows how those numbers will change as LLMs get better.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think AI is threat to developers job?

#8
post #7

Yes. Developers who know how to use LLMs are some % faster and more productive. You can increase the % enough so that overall demand for developers goes down or doesn't grow as much as it would have otherwise. It's not "my company laid us all off and replaced us with an LLM" but more like "this year our team is hiring for 3 new people instead of 4" - that's still a significant impact on the job market. And who knows…

I believe this is a rational assessment in general. A lot of the discussion around this topic seems to be negligent of market dynamics.

However, the crux is in the details:

> You can increase the % enough so that overall demand for developers goes down or doesn't grow as much as it would have otherwise.

I would be at least skeptical of this. Every push for commodification that we've seen in the software space so far has been absorbed by demand. Will this continue forever? Nobody knows. At least where I work the backlog is filled to the brim, and every new iteration of tooling begets more babysitting to unlock the promised gains. And customers still have a never-ending list of hyper-specific feature requests.

The friends and colleagues at the Senior/Staff level who are using Copilot/GPT-4 (and have admittedly become much better than me at prompting) didn't exactly become "hyper-productive". Sure, they get code pushed out faster, but they still work long hours and complain about deadlines.

This is not to say that we're all fine forever and things will not change. But as long as we don't experience an across-the-board temperature shift in the job market decoupled from macro-economic events I wouldn't put too much attention there. In the end, doom scrolling is also just a form of procrastination.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think AI is threat to developers job?

#9
post #7

Yes. Developers who know how to use LLMs are some % faster and more productive. You can increase the % enough so that overall demand for developers goes down or doesn't grow as much as it would have otherwise. It's not "my company laid us all off and replaced us with an LLM" but more like "this year our team is hiring for 3 new people instead of 4" - that's still a significant impact on the job market. And who knows…

[citation needed]

Re: Ask HN: Do you think AI is threat to developers job?

#10
It depends. If you're working a "bullshit job," it may be enhanced by AI. As Alan Blackwell points out, ChatGPT is a bullshit generator. But David Graeber documented many people were working "bullshit jobs."

If you're working a bullshit job, maybe ChatGPT will enable unforseen vistas of productivity in your career field.

https://www.cst.cam.ac.uk/blog/afb21/oops-we-automated-bulls...

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