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Ask HN: Are we in the midst of a systems collapse?

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Ask HN: Are we in the midst of a systems collapse?

#1
EDIT - My TL;DR is merely a cynical joke based on my experiences and conversations around the oft used scapegoat of all problems faced today. Please don't take it at face value.

TL;DR - Boomers ruin everything.

Hello HN!

While I earnestly desire my question be nothing more than hyperbolic ramblings of a crusty old IT guy, the antidotal conversations I've had with many of my professional contacts (most working in IT, but not all) seems to be reinforcing this drearily pessimistic observation:

Over the last several years a substantial amount of highly specialized, process critical employees have either retired early or quit abruptly across many sectors in the economy. These positions carried immense tribal knowledge that ignorant/incompetent/inexperienced management failed to adequately prepare any succession plan for, leaving entire system processes void of the knowledge and skills to necessary to perform.

These events appear to be leading society towards a sort of "critical mass of burnout" where remaining employees are being forced to saddle the responsibilities of the previous coworker but lack the experience/knowledge necessary to either perform the job efficiently, or at all. The vast majority of these people are have added duties, and the stressors that accompany them, saddled on them without the commensurate increase in compensation.

Thoughts?

Re: Ask HN: Are we in the midst of a systems collapse?

#2
FWIW economists have known since the 60's that Boomers would be retiring in large numbers around now. This makes me curious why businesses have not been proactively planning for this somehow. Is there a gap in business processes that excludes economics? Is this something taught in business school?

Boomers ruin everything.

Next in line will be Gen-X albeit a much smaller group. I can't fault any of the groups, retirement is expected behavior and something we hopefully all get to do. I believe the onus is on the business to plan accordingly. Perhaps even better would be to prioritize documentation and training to be on par with the primary function of the business. This could even be part of business continuity planning. Maybe insurance companies could add this as a line item in their audits.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in the midst of a systems collapse?

#3
post #2

FWIW economists have known since the 60's that Boomers would be retiring in large numbers around now. This makes me curious why businesses have not been proactively planning for this somehow . Is there a gap in business processes that excludes economics? Is this something taught in business school? Boomers ruin everything. Next in line will be Gen-X albeit a much smaller group. I can't fault any of the groups, retire…

It would be nice to see some boomers retire from politics. The U.S. sometimes looks like a Soviet-style gerontocracy and China seems to be going the same way now that Xi gave himself a third term.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in the midst of a systems collapse?

#5
post #2

FWIW economists have known since the 60's that Boomers would be retiring in large numbers around now. This makes me curious why businesses have not been proactively planning for this somehow . Is there a gap in business processes that excludes economics? Is this something taught in business school? Boomers ruin everything. Next in line will be Gen-X albeit a much smaller group. I can't fault any of the groups, retire…

It would be nice to see some boomers retire from politics. The U.S. sometimes looks like a Soviet-style gerontocracy and China seems to be going the same way now that Xi gave himself a third term.

I support term limits for non-elected government staff positions. 20 years and forced retirement with a nice severance/retirement package with the agreement they will not enter into a civilian career that benefits from their former position? i.e. attempt to prevent the creation of collusion, kickbacks and some bribery prior to retirement.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in the midst of a systems collapse?

#6
This is similar to the crisis private business owners face when they are too old to run their businesses. Many owners want their children to take over, but they are either reluctant, incompetent or both. It's always a shit show, and the business is sold eventually to a bigger company. This is happening all over, but the funeral industry is especially affected these days. I guess because it's mostly family businesses that avoided consolidation for a long time, just no longer.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in the midst of a systems collapse?

#7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be nice to see some boomers retire from politics. The U.S. sometimes looks like a Soviet-style gerontocracy and China seems to be going the same way now that Xi gave himself a third term.

I support term limits for non-elected government staff positions. 20 years and forced retirement with a nice severance/retirement package with the agreement they will not enter into a civilian career that benefits from their former position? i.e. attempt to prevent the creation of collusion, kickbacks and some bribery prior to retirement.

I dunno.

I know a person who is an advocate for nuclear energy, who sincerely believes that it is "the power to save the world". He was an officer in the nuclear navy and spent some time working in procurement of naval reactors.

When he retired from the navy he got a job working on small reactors (a subject that he's been passionate about) at a vendor that supplies naval reactors.

The "revolving door" can have the appearance of impropriety but sometimes it's the only way you're going to get people with certain knowledge and talent. For instance anything having to do with naval nuclear power requires a special security clearance on top of an ordinary security clearance. The person who is most likely to have that security clearance (as well as knowledge about naval nuclear reactors) is a person who serves as a "nuke" in the navy. So that kind of person is naturally going to wind up working at that kind of vendor not necessarily because of corruption but because of the scarcity of talent.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in the midst of a systems collapse?

#8
I mostly see it as an opportunity for younger companies to have a chance against the bloated old companies. As a solid Gen Xer, most Now we do face a population crunch, made worse by many anti-immigration policies, and so that is going to be painful. Same with Boomers pulling their money out of the stock market. But we knew that was coming, and the smart people are ready for it in many ways, I think.

Re: Ask HN: Are we in the midst of a systems collapse?

#9
I'm feeling something similar. I've been on sabbatical on and off for a few years, dipping my toes into the market to see what things are like professionally and it's been eye-openingly terrible. "Title inflation" has made the "senior" level a virtually worthless designation, and it appears like even "staff" engineers are going that way.

There's no thought put into long-term stability or serviceability of software. I fully understand the business need to "ship now", but if the software isn't performing its basic needs, what are you even shipping?

Re: Ask HN: Are we in the midst of a systems collapse?

#10
I think for thinking this through it is crucial to think in “consequences”. We get these by asking “what would be the business impact of this”?

I see the following things potentially happen:

#1 Business interruption: due to lack of knowledge an important breaks down and the business can’t do any business. The frequency and impact of such events will eventually trigger a response by management. Could this be have been solved cheaper and easier before? Maybe

#2 Data leaks: since system aren’t secured well enough, data will get lost. The impact of this is hard to measure.

I think both risks are manageable.

Any other consequences I am missing?

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