Is there anyway I can check if the central bank of my country is printing money out of thin air? is there a world-bank or IMF records or something similar where I can track?
The country is not a Western-style democracy, so information may be not so transparent (Currently they just announced some COVID relief packages, but I don't know where the money come from).
Ask HN: How to check if a central bank is printing money
1–10 of 15 posts
Re: Ask HN: How to check if a central bank is printing money
#2You sat on this account for 3 years?
Edit: Why not just explain instead of complain?
Edit2: You people are insane and I'm quitting HN.
Re: Ask HN: How to check if a central bank is printing money
#3You sat on this account for 3 years? Edit: Why not just explain instead of complain? Edit2: You people are insane and I'm quitting HN.
Do you have an on-topic answer?
Re: Ask HN: How to check if a central bank is printing money
#4You sat on this account for 3 years? Edit: Why not just explain instead of complain? Edit2: You people are insane and I'm quitting HN.
Why should everyone post? Maybe they just save articles?
Re: Ask HN: How to check if a central bank is printing money
#5https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2021/10/13/fis...
Downloads there include a 7+ mb .xlsx spreadsheet with extensive analysis of most countries' fiscal policies by the IMF. The April 2022 report will be out soon..
Re: Ask HN: How to check if a central bank is printing money
#6It would require you to study the financial statements of your central bank and yearly budget of your government to see how they are financing themselves.
Re: Ask HN: How to check if a central bank is printing money
#7You're looking for money supply numbers and balance sheets on central banks.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
M1 is true currency: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m1.asp
You will notice the graph suddenly changed recently. 4 trillion to 20 trillion is 500% increase in currency. Theoretically there's 500% inflation coming, obviously not set in stone. They can still pull the money back at the expense of a severe recession at minimum.
Another factor is that balance sheet.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
That flat line before the financial crisis is normal, not good, not bad. We could go into how the debt ceiling functions but it's unimportant. If the democrats can just keep raising the ceiling, it's not a ceiling. More of an umbrella i guess?
Effectively what happened in 2009 was that the USA federal government was officially bankrupt. But there's no such thing as bankruptcy for them. Plus who will make the decision to go bankrupt/default? It's retirees and veterans who suddenly have to go back to work... you lose the next election in a landslide.
So you start the printing presses and hope you can print enough money before your credit rating drops to the point that refinancing the debt will be impossible.
Re: Ask HN: How to check if a central bank is printing money
#8I am not sure about your country but in India, RBI publishes Fortnightly reports [1] which provide various data on money supply. It provides data on "Currency with the public" which doesn't reveals much but it does give a rough idea of currency in circulation. Try to find something similar for your country.
Re: Ask HN: How to check if a central bank is printing money
#9These days, pretty much all money-printing is effectively out of thin air. Few if any have a gold standard or similar backing their currencies. So it's down to trust in the economy. (Not that gold really has intrinsic value, but everybody seem to love shiny rocks:)
Re: Ask HN: How to check if a central bank is printing money
#10You're looking for money supply numbers and balance sheets on central banks. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL M1 is true currency: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m1.asp You will notice the graph suddenly changed recently. 4 trillion to 20 trillion is 500% increase in currency. Theoretically there's 500% inflation coming, obviously not set in stone. They can still pull the money back at the expense of a s…
How can we tell if Zimbabwe/Venezuela style hyperinflation is a real risk in the US? I used to read ZeroHedge 10 years ago where every day they would point to an increase in the Fed balance sheet/money supply/deficit/debt to GDP ratio/something and proclaim hyperinflation and the end of the world as we know it is right around the corner.
Obviously that didn't happen (and after a few missed predictions, I abandoned all "doomer" media). But what are the warning signs that stuff is seriously going off the rails and it's really time to worry?