Ask HN: NYC with autoimmune disease, what should I do?

#1

Post by BayezLyfe » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 12:12 PM UTC

I'm 30 years old with an autoimmune disease that puts me at high risk of COVID19. I'm otherwise very healthy -- vegetarian, yoga instructor, runs marathons, sleeps 8 hours, non-smoker. I'm isolating well in my apartment: haven't left in 10 days, and work well as a software eng. My main concern is if I do get infected (which is likely [1]), my immune deficiency suggests I'm very likely to become a critical case and need hospitalization, yet the lack of healthcare resources in NYC is appalling [1].

Should I leave NYC? How? Where should I go?

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/makeshift-morgue-built-in-nyc-to-deal-with-coronavirus-deaths-2020-3

Re: Ask HN: NYC with autoimmune disease, what should I do?

#2

Post by brudgers » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:18 PM UTC

Have you talked with your doctor?

Re: Ask HN: NYC with autoimmune disease, what should I do?

#3

Post by test_not_ok » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:32 PM UTC

Couldn't you self-isolate? Are you working from home?

If that's the case, keep calm store food for 1 month and wait.

Re: Ask HN: NYC with autoimmune disease, what should I do?

#4

Post by saluki » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:45 PM UTC

Sounds like you are setup to ride it out in NYC. I would stay in place, carefully have groceries delivered when possible and ride it out until the healthcare system can support you if needed then revaluate your situation. You are probably safest in your current environment since you don't have to go out and have already been in 10 days.

Re: Ask HN: NYC with autoimmune disease, what should I do?

#5

Post by snikeris » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:59 PM UTC

This doctor says to get out if you can safely:

https://youtu.be/F2EK-XRBsSo?t=468

Re: Ask HN: NYC with autoimmune disease, what should I do?

#6

Post by rococode » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 2:03 PM UTC

> (which is likely [1])

Why do you think it's likely? If you haven't left in 10 days and continue to stay home you're probably safe - safer than if you decided to leave the city now. Is there something preventing you from staying in your room for another couple months? Groceries can be delivered and carefully handled on your end.

Re: Ask HN: NYC with autoimmune disease, what should I do?

#7

Post by BayezLyfe » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 2:27 PM UTC

rococode wrote: post #6

> (which is likely [1]) Why do you think it's likely? If you haven't left in 10 days and continue to stay home you're probably safe - safer than if you decided to leave the city now. Is there something preventing you from staying in your room for another couple months? Groceries can be delivered and carefully handled on your end.

Good points, but a back-of-envelope calculation looks like:

P(failure) = P(infection) * P(critical) * (1-P(icu))

0.1 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 0.072

That infection probability is optimistic, considering what you mention above. That ICU availability probability is the situation we're facing in NYC.

Re: Ask HN: NYC with autoimmune disease, what should I do?

#8

Post by BayezLyfe » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 2:31 PM UTC

snikeris wrote: post #5

This doctor says to get out if you can safely: https://youtu.be/F2EK-XRBsSo?t=468

Damn. What is safe though? Is it safe to rent a car? Better to drive across the country and stay with family, where healthcare systems aren't crumbling? Or find a random cabin upstate NY to rent, but risk access to healthcare?

Re: Ask HN: NYC with autoimmune disease, what should I do?

#9

Post by twox2 » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 2:32 PM UTC

Maybe you can add some breathing exercises to your routine to strengthen diaphragm breathing and lung capacity.

Re: Ask HN: NYC with autoimmune disease, what should I do?

#10

Post by snikeris » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 2:48 PM UTC

BayezLyfe wrote: post #8

snikeris wrote: post #5

This doctor says to get out if you can safely: https://youtu.be/F2EK-XRBsSo?t=468

Damn. What is safe though? Is it safe to rent a car? Better to drive across the country and stay with family, where healthcare systems aren't crumbling? Or find a random cabin upstate NY to rent, but risk access to healthcare?

Yeah, good questions. I'd say if you already have a car, probably reasonably safe to make your way to it and drive somewhere. But renting, hmm not so sure.

Also, staying with family has its risks. Maybe someone is infected but asymptomatic.

Sorry man, I don't have much advice for you. Best of luck.

Whatever you decide to do, think it through, preferably with some other brains involved. Don't rush. As others have said, you're reasonably safe inside where you are now.