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Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

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Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#1

Post by dakrisht »

Italy is at 53,000+ confirmed cases of SARS-Cov2.

This would assume they have tested upwards of 200,000+ patients in order to get a 25% infection rate.

I'm using 25% as a conservative figure. If you liberally drop this down to 10% infected tested, we'd have to be at 500,000+ successfully administered, processed and reported RT-PCR tests.

Side note: Roche's best machines, for example, can process 4,100 RT-PCR tests in a fully automated fashion and this not just a machine on a desktop, but a full-blown assembly line operation.

Intriguing.

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#4

Post by dakrisht »

Jaxkr wrote: post #3

Based on symptoms and where the people were geographically. One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid.

> One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town.

What?

>They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid.

So Influenza A, B are safely assumed to be SARS-Cov2.

Yeah... no.

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#5

Post by dylz »

dakrisht wrote: post #4
Jaxkr wrote: post #3

Based on symptoms and where the people were geographically. One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid.

> One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. What? >They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid. So Influenza A, B are safely assumed to be SARS-Cov2. Yeah... no.

You can rapid-test for flu. If it's an ILI and tests negative for flu, it's probably COVID at this point.

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#7

Post by dakrisht »

dylz wrote: post #5
dakrisht wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. What? >They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid. So Influenza A, B are safely assumed to be SARS-Cov2. Yeah... no.

You can rapid-test for flu. If it's an ILI and tests negative for flu, it's probably COVID at this point.

Ok sure. Still inaccurate to assume it’s SARS-Cov2.

This is not a game of assumptions.

Furthermore, Italy tested over 200,000 samples in a little less than 14 days? Don’t think so.

Numbers aren’t making sense. At all.

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#8

Post by erk__ »

dakrisht wrote: post #7
dylz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can rapid-test for flu. If it's an ILI and tests negative for flu, it's probably COVID at this point.

Ok sure. Still inaccurate to assume it’s SARS-Cov2. This is not a game of assumptions. Furthermore, Italy tested over 200,000 samples in a little less than 14 days? Don’t think so. Numbers aren’t making sense. At all.

It very much is. When you are limited in every way you have make some cuts. This is just the cut that says that it is probably covid if it is not flu and they are from an area with test confirmed cases. And in by far most cases it is going to be correct. Probably as correct as the current test for covid.

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#9

Post by dakrisht »

erk__ wrote: post #8
dakrisht wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok sure. Still inaccurate to assume it’s SARS-Cov2. This is not a game of assumptions. Furthermore, Italy tested over 200,000 samples in a little less than 14 days? Don’t think so. Numbers aren’t making sense. At all.

It very much is. When you are limited in every way you have make some cuts. This is just the cut that says that it is probably covid if it is not flu and they are from an area with test confirmed cases. And in by far most cases it is going to be correct. Probably as correct as the current test for covid.

So 200,000+ people under mandatory lockdown went to a clinic (not a drive through test, a physical clinic), lined up and waited to get tested for Influenza which was assumed to be SARS-Cov2?

Or maybe Italy tested 200,000+ samples with RT-PCR technology with machines and labs and tests / swabs they don’t have?

Not trying at all to spin conspiracy theories here but these numbers simply do not add up.

As a corollary: there are a myriad of infections that can present as fever and cough: rhinoviruses, influenza, bronchial infections, gastroenteritis, auto immune flare ups, sinusitis and season allergies, the list goes on.

We are all speculating btw.

Re: Ask HN: How is actually Italy confirming SARS-Cov2 cases?

#10

Post by ramblerman »

Jaxkr wrote: post #3

Based on symptoms and where the people were geographically. One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid.

Wow really. Do you have a source for that?

Because if true, combine that with the facts that

- 87% of deaths occur at home and not in ICU [1]

- median age of deaths is 80 years old [2]

Are all deaths just being counted as Covid-19 (without test then)? I think it would be really interesting to compare baseline deaths in February/March from previous years to this one.

[1] https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-in-lomba...

[2] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-C...

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