Optimistic scenario - lockdown everywhere is a success and after a month there're single cases here and there, maybe even 0 cases. Would countries resume travel and ease gathering restriction before a vaccine has been invented? Or we can expect to be in a lockdown for 12-14 months until a vaccine comes to market, if it comes to market?
Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
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Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#2The endgame is to figure out the least cost sustainable measures of getting R0<1 until we have a vaccine or treatment safe enough for people in high risk groups to take.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#3Resume work after countries have the capacity to test everyone who has a fever. Maintain strong hygiene and social distance if possible. Firefight clusters of outbreaks where they occur. Wait for treatment and vaccine.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#4I anticipate that sooner or later the economic costs of staying on lockdown will overwhelm the benefits. We will probably begin to loosen restrictions and we will probably see periodic outbreaks in various places.
I don't know if that simply continues until a vaccine is viable or some other factor intervenes.
But this new reality won't be short-lived.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#5The endgame is to figure out the least cost sustainable measures of getting R0<1 until we have a vaccine or treatment safe enough for people in high risk groups to take.
> The endgame is to figure out the least cost sustainable measures of getting R0
The question assumes this has already been done: "single cases here and there, maybe even 0 cases".
It seems to me that the key question at that point is, if there are no active cases--everyone exposed to the virus who is still alive has either never developed symptoms in the first place, or has recovered from whatever symptoms they had and is now asymptomatic--is there still a risk of spreading the virus further?
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#6If tensions ease too quickly and we release everyone into the wild, it could cause another outbreak. I don't personally know the parameters of that risk, I just know it is a risk.
But on the bold assumption that we somehow contain the virus, we have a global economic collapse to tend to.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#7I would hope the lockdown gives us enough time to do thorough testing & tracing of the virus. Also a lockdown + messaging should convince people to take this thing seriously and follow the precautions.
If we know who has it well enough then we can focus care on them, wait until they can fight off the virus and go back to normal after. That is assuming people don't transmit the virus after recovering from it.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#8The endgame is to figure out the least cost sustainable measures of getting R0<1 until we have a vaccine or treatment safe enough for people in high risk groups to take.
Isn't it about flattening the curve instead of eliminating the curve?
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#9I thought this interview was illuminating for post-lockdown life in China https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1238604080571772928?s=2...
It shows just how far behind we are.
TLDW: Temperature checks everywhere. Fever clinics optimized for quarantining the potentially infected.
China is trying to actually contain the virus. The only way out for us unless we significantly ramp up testing and lockdown is to admit defeat and simply optimize for slowing down the onslaught.
Re: Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
#10If social distancing can bring the number of cases down to a manageable level, you can switch to a traditional public health approach: Test anyone showing symptoms, and aggressively trace and test any contacts of known cases.