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Ask HN: What happens to society if we run out of oil?
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Re: Ask HN: What happens to society if we run out of oil?
#2First society will quickly transition to electric transportation. Second, society will start synthesizing the organic feedstock it needs for making plastic products.
Re: Ask HN: What happens to society if we run out of oil?
#3We won't. Over 80% of oil we pull out of the ground is burned for energy, and we are switching to alternatives at a rate that should have us fully transitioned before we run out.
And thank god, too. We can only pull up a quarter of our proven reserves before hitting 2 degrees warming (the Paris agreement). We hit 3 degrees warming (where the Pentagon says wars start over food) when we pull up a third of proven reserves.
I work in cleantech, and people used to wonder if oil would die at a high price (due to lack of supply) or low price (due to low demand). Nowadays everyone knows it will die at a low price. Also, here's my favorite climate change joke, "They say we won't act until it's too late...Luckily, it's too late!"
Re: Ask HN: What happens to society if we run out of oil?
#4A lot of things become much more expensive (likely gradually as supplies dwindle).
Electricity, until petroleum-burning plants are replaced with nuclear or renewable alternatives.
Travel and shipping, while we come up with alternative ways to fuel jets and ocean liners, and replace our car and truck fleets with electric ones. This cost trickles down to any goods not manufactured locally with locally-sourced materials.
Food, until we come up with alternatives to petroleum-derived fertilizers and retrofit our farm machinery to use electric motors.
Electric motors and batteries and the raw materials needed for the batteries, as demand for them rises.
Plastics (made from petroleum derivatives).
Food again, as some crops are diverted into use as combustion fuel or to produce plastics.
Some of this is already happening to a limited degree as we exhaust the least expensive sources of petroleum.
If the process were to accelerate - and especially if it were to outpace our capacity to substitute non-petroleum-dependent tooling and processes for petroleum-dependent ones - rising prices (especially of food) would presumably lead to social unrest and possibly even instability.
Re: Ask HN: What happens to society if we run out of oil?
#5We'll use other hydrocarbons assuming we haven't mostly (hopefully) transitioned off of hydrocarbons by then. Coal (which can be liquefied), natural gas, there is a lot of energy left in the ground.
But the dirtiness of burning hydrocarbons has become well recognized so it looks like we won't get to that point at all.
Re: Ask HN: What happens to society if we run out of oil?
#6There is a quote from an OPEC meeting decades ago:
The stone age didn't end because the world ran out of stones; the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil. http://www.economist.com/node/2155717
Re: Ask HN: What happens to society if we run out of oil?
#7We'll use other hydrocarbons assuming we haven't mostly (hopefully) transitioned off of hydrocarbons by then. Coal (which can be liquefied), natural gas, there is a lot of energy left in the ground. But the dirtiness of burning hydrocarbons has become well recognized so it looks like we won't get to that point at all.
Well, some of us at least. I'm convinced that some countries won't make the necessary investments to switch quickly enough, and will continue to be primarily dependent upon hydrocarbons for energy. The fact that El Cheeto and his friends are opening up lands in the Arctic for drilling a few days ago is one example.
Re: Ask HN: What happens to society if we run out of oil?
#8One less topic to argue about at holiday dinners.
Re: Ask HN: What happens to society if we run out of oil?
#9There is a quote from an OPEC meeting decades ago: The stone age didn't end because the world ran out of stones; the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil. http://www.economist.com/node/2155717
And the implied corollary: Don't you worry your pretty little heads about climate change, fossil fuel pollution, or your societies being dangerously dependent on a volatile part of the world with autocratic leaders with a medieval mindset. Mankind will always invent its way out of whatever problem it finds itself in. In the mean time, fill up your tank, enjoy life and stop worrying!
Re: Ask HN: What happens to society if we run out of oil?
#10I’m an exploration engineer at Saudi Armaco. It will be a long long time (hundreds of years) before we run out of oil; and each year we discover new kinds of crude reservoirs.