I'm a novelist and I just completed the first draft of a fictional story about robots.
I was wondering: how long do you think it will take for human-realistic robots to become available on the market?
Ask HN: Human-Realistic Robots?
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Re: Ask HN: Human-Realistic Robots?
#2There are quite a few interpretations of what human-realistic means, but here are my very optimistic, noisy estimates. I'm interested what numbers others come up with.
* Proyas' "I, Robot": 15 years (no evil uprising)
* Spike Jone's "Her": 20 years, but no trans-human A.Is
* Sex robots that feel like "the real thing": 20 years
* Bicentennial Man: 30 years
* Spielberg's "Artificial Intelligence" (2001) - 30 years.
Re: Ask HN: Human-Realistic Robots?
#3Not as long as you think
Re: Ask HN: Human-Realistic Robots?
#4For what purpose? I consider human like robots a publicity stunt that will never catch on. (sex is probably the exception that proves my rule). I don't have any interest in a human like robot. Robots need to serve a purpose.
I want a robot to do my laundry, vacuum (current offerings leave much to be desired), dishes - in short a domestic servant. I can branch out to yard work, driving... Human realistic isn't of interest, I want the jobs done, and that is where the market it.
I can see pets catching on - but even bipedal pets have significant differences from human like. Passing the truing test is a negative - I want to feel superior to my pets.
Of course your story is about available on the market. That is different from a market success. I can see them in 20-40 years, but just like the pet rock they are a fad that comes and then ends up in the dump.
The above is points to ponder. You are writing fiction. You can reject any as you see fit. If you think I'm wrong about anything you need to consider if your readers will fail to suspend disbelief if you don't explain why I'm wrong. Or maybe I'm right and that lack of demand can be spun to fill the plot hole of why the robots take over. There are endless possibilities. Your universe, your choices: good luck.
Re: Ask HN: Human-Realistic Robots?
#5For what purpose? I consider human like robots a publicity stunt that will never catch on. (sex is probably the exception that proves my rule). I don't have any interest in a human like robot. Robots need to serve a purpose. I want a robot to do my laundry, vacuum (current offerings leave much to be desired), dishes - in short a domestic servant. I can branch out to yard work, driving... Human realistic isn't of inte…
The purpose is comedy, haha, but the need I have is to realistically estimate when companion robots (clean) will become conversational. Some of the robots in the book are more mechanical-looking. Some more "human-like," meaning: difficult to discern from humans. It's all for the purpose of serving the story, and I can see your point about where the market is. That is helpful as I can see that if these nonsexual companionship robots come to exist, it will be well after every other area is dominated by more useful robots. Thanks!
Re: Ask HN: Human-Realistic Robots?
#6Not as long as you think http://www.hansonrobotics.com/
This is the assumption I am operating on, so this is a great link. They all seem kind of mechanical, which is what I am using for some of the humor in the book. So, it was fun to watch these robots in action after having imagined what it would look like in my head for so long.
Re: Ask HN: Human-Realistic Robots?
#7For what purpose? I consider human like robots a publicity stunt that will never catch on. (sex is probably the exception that proves my rule). I don't have any interest in a human like robot. Robots need to serve a purpose. I want a robot to do my laundry, vacuum (current offerings leave much to be desired), dishes - in short a domestic servant. I can branch out to yard work, driving... Human realistic isn't of inte…
The purpose is comedy, haha, but the need I have is to realistically estimate when companion robots (clean) will become conversational. Some of the robots in the book are more mechanical-looking. Some more "human-like," meaning: difficult to discern from humans. It's all for the purpose of serving the story, and I can see your point about where the market is. That is helpful as I can see that if these nonsexual compa…
> That is helpful as I can see that if these nonsexual companionship robots come to exist, it will be well after every other area is dominated by more useful robots.
Actually I think conversational companion robots can happen before more useful domestic servants. Elisa was from the 1960s, voice recognition is pretty good already. You can do a lot of comedy around a robot that can hold a conversation but can't find it way from the kitchen to the living room (in an open floor plan).
Laundry is actually a hard problem, and there isn't much research going into it. (it might be easier than speech, but a lot of research is going into speech)