Ask HN: What will self driving cars do to real estate?

> Parking lots in major cities are free'd up because they no longer make sense creating more housing real estate.

Buildings will continue to exist, this will only have an effect on large parking lots which will be torn down and replaced by housing, but these are already rare enough in cities.

> Traffic Congestion is reduced so commutes are shorter creating more demand for suburb living.

If you have to travel 30-50 km to the city centres, even autonomous cars will not solve the issue that this distance needs time for travel.

This may derail the discussion but it's hard to discuss this question without first wondering the impact of self-driving cars to mass transit. At least in New York, being near a subway stop is a very nice amenity and commercial development typically flourishes around each stop regardless of neighborhood. If stepping into a self-driving car is as easy as walking 50 feet to the nearest subway stop, will real estate around subways command less of a premium?

I guess the bigger question is, will subways have as much demand once self-driving cars become big? Obviously, no, if the cost for hailing a self-driving car becomes almost as inexpensive as a subway. But there are things the city of New York could do to impact that, such as reduce street capacity (i.e. increasing pedestrian and bike capacity).

But that's just New York. Everywhere else in the U.S. where mass transit is not a daily option, automated cars will be a daily habit. Inevitably, as more and more people migrate to New York and expect automated cars to be the default option, it's hard to imagine subways (and buses) winning out, absent some major limitation in self-driving car production or capability.

New York will always be an anomaly...but yes, I'd have to agree with your speculation that suburban living would become much more attractive without having to worry about car ownership or driving. And this would most definitely impact commuters to New York. But if self-driving cars become a ubiquitous option, will there be the political appetite to continue subsidizing mass transit rail, such as the kind that is currently used to bring in upstate workers to the city today?

I have been thinking about this as well. One idea I've been wondering about:

* Will more remote vacation destinations, including owning a second home in these areas, be more in demand? Buying or renting a vacation house that's a 5-6 hour drive away may not be as ideal if you have to drive yourself there. If you own or can rent a self driving car though, the trip may not seem quite as far. Longer road trips may become more popular, and geographical far places may feel closer than they used to. Demand in coastal or mountainous locations currently far removed from cities may increase.

Why would self-driving cars reduce traffic congestion? If my car drove itself, I'd be less incentivized to use public transportation. I'd probably be willing to put up with a slightly longer door-to-door time than if I used public transportation because it would be more convenient: I'd rather surf the web in my own car than have to pay attention to stops, schedules, transfers, etc. Congestion would probably be different: it would be less stop-and-go and more uniformly slow speeds.

I think it gets worse before it gets better. Early generation self driving cars will move slower than human piloted cars, who take greater safety risks in the name of speed.