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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#981
2030 decade predictions: 1) A rise of smart robots both physically, ranging from military to household uses. A robot can actually clean your house. A newspaper article talks about the "Fly State" in which people cannot tell whether a fly is a surveillance fly or a real fly.

2) Advances in quantum computing lead to breakthroughs in medical science. Notably the immune system is modified to monitor key health metrics on an everyday basis. This will enable early detection of Cancer, and combined with advances in immunotherapy Cancer eradication will be in sight. Clinical trials of immune based early detection start toward the end of the decade.

3) The combination of advances in machine learning and 5G becoming ubiquitous, enabling level 5 self driving cars. The cars themselves can't handle all situations, but they are able to identify uncertain situations and let a third party take over via the 5g network.

4) Mass protests against the rich start to form, which leads the rich to create communities defended by mercenaries in the name of self defense.

5) Concrete plans to send people to Mars by 2040. SpaceX wins this contract from the United States Space Force. China is in competition as they view this as a military threat.

6) An increased nuclear war threat globally as income inequality becomes more drastic between countries, which sparks a rise in companies that specialize in safety. People start to move out of major cities and office headquarters become more remote with the advent of self driving cars enabling an easier commute.

7) Sports gambling and wave of real time applications around sports gambling becomes ubiquitous, as people become more bored and need distraction.

8) Google starts to show clear signs that it will beat Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. Cries to break up the company grow increasingly louder with daily protests starting around the the Google campus.

9) People start to seriously consider the idea of genetic modification of their babies for higher intelligence as machine learning makes it incredibly difficult to be competitive in the world.

10) Virtual reality is still a niche market, but augmented reality becomes more real with e-readers and even television taking augmented reality form.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#982

Interesting how most of the predictions seem either pessimistic or minor compared to last decade. Here's mine: 1. Apple enters at least one new product category. This will likely be a wearable such as AR glasses. 2. Apple introduces hearing enhancement and protection features into the AirPods, attempting to expand its use case outside of music. 3. The next generation of console gaming will be VR. This includes a Nint…

Interesting thoughts!

> Companies will start to pay users for the right to see and use their personal information.

Retail companies already do that, right? With "loyalty cards". Correct me if I'm wrong - I've never used one.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#983
South East Australia and several other places will become uninhabitable because of fires, drought or floods.

Self driving cars will be the norm, but we still have a steering wheel for unexpected situations.

Trump will be reelected and start a new war. A big attack will be done on american soil.

Cannabis legal in almost the entire US and europe (except Sweden and Norway).

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#984

South East Australia and several other places will become uninhabitable because of fires, drought or floods. Self driving cars will be the norm, but we still have a steering wheel for unexpected situations. Trump will be reelected and start a new war. A big attack will be done on american soil. Cannabis legal in almost the entire US and europe (except Sweden and Norway).

And batteries will improve significiantly, and charging time of an EV is as fast as filling your car with gas. This also means longer drone ranges and better carrying capacity, home delivery by drone and a lot more illegal activity with drones. This comes with a lot of new regulations.

The worlds countries has become more or less co2 neutral, except for China and the US, so humanity fails the 2 degrees goal. But we have optimism in moving to Greenland in the future. The US still wants to buy Greenland.

Greta Thunberg looses relevance as she grows past 20, but she becomes active in Green Peace or the Green party and studies at Globala Gymnasiet and then at Stockholm University.

Its more common to take the train than flying on vacation in Europe, you can even take the train to asia more easily with Chinas new huge railway system. China owns basically everything.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#985
post #80

- AI based systems will start to replace humans in the more mechanical parts of the legal system. Judging traffic court cases could be one example. - One country will invade another country using computer/information attacks as the deciding strike, perhaps Russia invading one of the Eastern Bloc countries. People's mobile phones will simply tell them that there is some kind of natural disaster happening and that they…

I got goosebumps reading the second one, because it's so close to what could actually happen. I live in a small eastern European country in a frozen conflict with Russia. Both cell carriers in my country have a way to send messages to its users en masse, which is at the moment used to spam people with ads and political messages (given that the commissioner pays enough per message).

Russian hackers hijacking both cell companies to send a string of messages to citizens seems like a very plausible scenario. Our software companies are notorious for their terrible security measures (which are often nonexistent). Just a few months ago, a few major hosting companies were hacked by possibly Ukranian or Russian actors to have every site hosted on them be replaced with a single image of our past megalomaniacal president holing our flag with subtitles saying "I'll be back". It could have just been a test run to see how we'd handle it or respond to it. I had access to one of the websites and skimmed through its directories. The directory which contained static content for serving had multiple child directories following a naming pattern: `name`, `name_`, `name__` ... I think the virus would recursively add an underscore to the directory it was creating if a directory with the same name already existed. Seems like the attacks happened multiple times and were automated, so it probably didn't require great effort from the attacker. Maybe the multiple names were due to different ways of attacking and it's saddening to see that 3+ different ways to hack our hosting services worked.

Russia has been slowly creeping the border towards our capital city. If Russia wanted, it could easily just annex the entire country and nobody outside would give a damn. We'd just have to comply because we're in a total mess. EU would wag their fingers and "condemn" what Russia did and that would be the end of it. I think Russia has bigger plans. Just taking us over has less value compared to the alternative: to test out its cyber-attacking power on a small challenge such as our country before moving onto bigger targets, such as Ukraine.

Where do you suggest I move? Finland and Canada are looking great, their immigration policies seem lax :-)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#987
- People will still talk about the ending of Moore's Law, while it still actually continues throughout the decade

- Facebook will be the first to market with a consumer friendly successful AR device. But Apple and Google will be more successful, due to their tie in with mobile operating systems. First successful consumer AR headsets will be phone accessories like Apple Watch - AR gaming, maybe connected to Desktop PCs, will be successful once a company makes a AR headset with good input (allowing for BeatSaber in AR)

- VR/AR entertainment will be larger than game console industry. Mobile games still massively larger than all others. - Console industry and PlayStation/Xbox devices will decline, as anything single screen based can be streamed for the same experience - Google will continue to develop and invest in Stadia, slowly increasing its market share

- Valve will finally make 'Steam Machines' running Linux a reality, selling them as primarily for VR (with included headset).

- WebAssembly becomes the main way to deliver all apps - native and browser based. Because of this difference between operating systems becomes less important. Google transitions Android to Fuchsia on some new devices - Rust will continue to continue to rise in popularity as the main language for systems / server / game development

- SpaceX's Starlink works, helping to bring total internet access of the world up to 95%. Other LEO satellites launch mid decade from an alliance of companies to compete. SpaceX's Starship reaches Mars - might transport people depending on space's health risk to humans - Starlink /Loon / Wifi access disrupt mobile carriers

- Man made climate change will still be debated the same - with minor change in public perception towards believing in it. Geoengineering will have some success and be seen as a viable solution at the end of the decade

Cryptocurrency will be a larger component of the world financial systems, but will still not take off in any way with the general public. Still a niche store of value. By the end of the decade decentralized block chain companies will begin to take off

Instagram will make more revenue for Facebook than the Facebook app

Driverless taxi services are mainstream in major cities by the end of decade

Cloud: AWS will remain 1, Azure 2, Google a more distant 3rd.

Deep learning tools will be a more common part of IDEs and productivity tools. Accessible Deep learning tools for amateur creators to create visual effects equal to blockbuster movies. Tech like 'De-aging' will be basically free to add to any video

Europe continues to decline. China has a major recession. The US stays at its relative position

AI is solving difficult problems (such as math proofs), with humans then needing to interpret and understand the proof afterwards (many different published papers interpreting the results)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#988

South East Australia and several other places will become uninhabitable because of fires, drought or floods. Self driving cars will be the norm, but we still have a steering wheel for unexpected situations. Trump will be reelected and start a new war. A big attack will be done on american soil. Cannabis legal in almost the entire US and europe (except Sweden and Norway).

And batteries will improve significiantly, and charging time of an EV is as fast as filling your car with gas. This also means longer drone ranges and better carrying capacity, home delivery by drone and a lot more illegal activity with drones. This comes with a lot of new regulations. The worlds countries has become more or less co2 neutral, except for China and the US, so humanity fails the 2 degrees goal. But we h…

Transparent screens will come, and obviously foldable screens will become affordable, but i dont think the interest is big enough for it to really take off

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#989
1. Still no Iron Man type interface or Star Wars style holograms for communication

2. VR will remain just a play thing, probably even die out.

3. iPhone series will stop with the numeric versioning, probably around iPhone 14.

4. We'll have 512gb storage, 8GB RAM as the norm in smartphones by the end of the decade. By norm, I mean the specs would be there even in the mid-range phones.

5. Google Stadia if marketed correctly now, and if it works really well, will be the standard of gaming by 2030.

6. #metoo v2 will happen

7. EU will die out and get taken over by middle-east Islamic nations.

8. Marvel will fail trying to replicate its whole Avengers series success over this decade.

9. AWS alone will earn Amazon > $80bn/yr by 2030. Last year alone it earned $25.7 billion - https://qz.com/1539546/amazon-web-services-brought-in-more-m...

10. Hopefully the Facebook app itself (the social network, not the company) would be on the brink of collapse. Facebook would survive by its acquisitions - whatsapp, instagram, etc.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#990
post #781

1. Electric cars become the norm. All cars are fully autonomous on highways. A driverless highway transport service will go mainstream in some states. (California) 2. China will undergo a major recession, as manufacturing moves to Africa and US maintains its trade war with China across Govts. 3. The best performing stock will be a meat substitute company 4. VR will take off big time. Concerns about VR porn being too…

I disagree with #4.

I rather think that VR will die out.

It hasn't been that impressive honestly and it's not finding any good applications other than shitty VR porn and shitty VR games.

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