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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#971

Post by fredleeming »

1. Amazon and Facebook are broken up in anti-monopoly cases

2. AI can detect almost all forms of cancer with a 5 minute check-up

3. AI replaces initial GP/Dr checkups and you then get sent to a specialist

4. Autonomous cars aren’t a universal thing yet, but are introduced on certain highways

5. Farming becomes increasingly automated and efficient. Robots and huge amounts of data revolutionize our growing capabilities 6. Fewer coding languages will be around, coding will be introduced as required subject in schools - JS, Python, Golang

7. Weed will be legalized in the UK and across EU, Class A drugs become new battle ground

8. Population growth stalls in western world causing huge concerns about future aging populations

9. Nuclear becomes main source of energy (more efficient and affordable), close to solving fusion but still not quite there

10. American mass shootings become increasingly common, gun control still hasn’t happened

11. Mental health in gen z as they grow up becomes such an issue that social media becomes heavily regulated

12. Flexible working is at its peak, there is a move away from main economic urban areas towards more lifestyle focused towns.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#973

Post by [deleted] »

jb775 wrote: post #482

1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency. 2.) Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major competitor in the ISP space. Most transmitted data throughout the world will touch a StarLink satellite. 3.) Financial downturn/semi-recession in mid-late decade primarily caused by excessive corporate stock buybacks artificially inflating stock prices. (Stock bu…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#974

Post by rdm_blackhole »

My own predictions:

1)Either the UE will become a superstate with countries relegated to the role of provinces with much less power than before or the UE will start breaking apart due to the inadequacy of the Euro currency and the disparity between the successful European countries such as Germany and France and the less successful ones such as Portugal, Italy and Greece.

In the second scenario, one major country may be in the process of exiting the EU and go back to using its own currency or has already done so by the end of the decade.

3)Russia will become a food superpower due to rising temperatures making it an ideal place to grow lots of food. This will help keep the oligarchs in place and no real political change will happen within this decade.

4)China will not see a change in its political system. Xi Jinping will still be ruling China but there will be political turmoil due to his failing health.

5)A mega recession will happen and subsequently, asset prices will be cut in half around the globe due to QE and low-interest rates having pushed the prices of shares and real estate to levels completely disconnected from the real world economies.

6)The pace of Automation will continue to increase and 10s of millions of people will be out of work as there won't be enough time to retrain them to find a new job. This will force governments to increase unemployment benefits dramatically or implement UBI to appease the population of the countries most affected by this.

7)Crypto currency may or may not be mainstream by 2030

8)Apple will enter the healthcare space with a major and still unannounced product, potentially a wearable device that would monitor your well being 24/7(not a watch)

9)Phones are starting to be replaced by AR glasses or contact lenses.

10)Facebook’s median user’s age is 45 years old in 2030.

11)The price of a secondhand Tesla car is roughly equivalent to that of a secondhand ICE car.

12)Self driving level 4 is mainstream.

13)Elon Musk is the richest man in the world with a net worth approaching 200Bn

14)New electric cars have an autonomy of 1000 miles on a single charge.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#975

Post by aSplash0fDerp »

/ The Internet gets severed/fractured within 5 years due to a combination of tax domain disputes (Italy, France), cyberwar claims/threats (NK, Iran) and political maneuvering (Russia, China). Internet Pangaea/Pangea was nice while it lasted, but tectonic shifts will happen with digital borders that were nowhere on the Internet roadmap

/ Insoluble food kicks-off a new trend of calorie displacement ingredients/meals

/ The tween activist movement gets pranked so hard with a global tide-pod viral moment that we all should have seen it coming when you get that many willing kids that will blindly repeat anything (words and actions) into large groups

/ Companies/Governments start sending waves of bots/mechs to the moon/mars to start building infrastructure and reserve human space exploration for a later decade

/ Incompatible, human interface, solidstate networks and pithy become the most overused buzzwords of the decade

/ Hemp goes mainstream and replaces all of the low hanging fruit in textiles, food and biocomposites within 10 years

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#976

Post by nielsole »

Driverless cars somewhat arrive (in limited city areas). The number of robot taxis drastically increases in the city centers, clogging the streets. Time based road tolls for robot cars are introduced a few years after their general availability mostly solving this problem. The taxes further incentivize robot car pooling, which from then on gradually start to replace public transport buses improving the attractiveness of public transport in Europe. The first mover advantage that Uber and FreeNow have built up turns out to be moot, as the producer of the first robot car can choose who to partner with in the first few years. Customers happily switch apps to whoever offers the best service. German car industry suffers first from switch to electric and very late in the decade from a decrease in sales due to increasing availability of robot taxis. This throws Germany into political and economical turmoil leaving a power vacuum in the EU(by 2035).

Medical apps could by now replace most routine doctor consultations, but don't, because of strict regulation. With an aging population, leads to an overloaded and expensive medical system.

Africa becomes a big economical player, with many countries under heavy Chinese influence. Some African countries can build up an industry around drones due to lax regulations regarding air traffic. First big passenger airliner to emergency land / crash due to a drone accident.

The actions that are taken against climate change as the effects become palpable can be summarized as too late, too little.

Household robots continue to be good for one task only.

The US looses its global dominance, as trump is reelected and continues isolationist politics while degrading US democracy.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#977

Post by MachineMartin »

TheCondor wrote: post #730

Are these really negative sounding? Or is it just me? Is it the retrograde politics that has infected our entrepreneurial optimism? Too much hype not enough delivery? Too much interwebs and not enough real human time? Ten years back, it seemed like I regularly interacted with folks that seemed to believe that, armed with an nvidia chip and some models and the ability to sling some js, they could be the next Zuckerber…

"long haul"

Why will they do part time work via mobile connection? We will need a driver to drive the truck to and from the highway, but on the highways there will be no driver on board. So driving will still be a full time job: You will be driving the first/last 10 miles after which you get off and get into another truck.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#978

Post by theli0nheart »

Here's what I predict for 2030:

1. Trump will either be world dictator, or hardly anyone will talk about him.

2. Python, Go, JavaScript, Java, and C++ will still be incredibly popular programming languages. Kotlin & Swift may join that list.

3. Self-driving cars will begin to see wide adoption. Governments will update infrastructure to better support fully-automated self driving.

4. Facebook will be a hollow shell of its former self unless the company makes a considerable innovation.

5. The climate change debate will hardly change.

6. There will be either a major war or a major recession.

7. Automation will replace hardly any jobs, but the jobs it does replace will lead to creative endeavors being more highly desired skills in the workplace.

8. Trump will win a second term.

9. Space exploration becomes a high priority around the world.

10. A major disease will be cured / a medical breakthrough of some kind will occur.

11. People will still be obsessed with the 90s.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#979

Post by jwbdecker »

Interesting how most of the predictions seem either pessimistic or minor compared to last decade.

Here's mine:

1. Apple enters at least one new product category. This will likely be a wearable such as AR glasses.

2. Apple introduces hearing enhancement and protection features into the AirPods, attempting to expand its use case outside of music.

3. The next generation of console gaming will be VR. This includes a Nintendo VR console.

4. Webpages will become increasingly rare by 2030. Apps will emerge as the dominant web platform and traditional webpages will start to disappear.

5. Information will continue to become untrustable. Deep fake videos, AI generated articles, paid reviews, nation state propaganda, etc will explode. It will become increasingly apparent that anonymity is damaging the web. Verified identity will become much more commonplace. New businesses will begin to form around authenticating information. Talk about tech regulation will become much more serious.

6. The trend will continue towards more privacy. This will result in more processing being performed locally on personal devices, and more peer-to-peer technologies that don't require sending information to a third party.

7. Companies will start to pay users for the right to see and use their personal information.

8. Grocery store delivery will become commonplace.

9. Electric cars will become more common than gasoline cars in terms of new purchases.

10. There won't be self driving cars, but individual autonomous features like adaptive cruise, lane keeping, parallel parking, and some new ones will continue to be experienced by more and more people, increasing people's trust in autonomous features.

11. AR calling will be created in some basic format. You'll be able to see the person you're calling as if they were standing in your living room. This will be AR's "killer app."

12. iPhone will not have any buttons or ports by the end of the decade.

13. iPhone camera will be able to take 3D pictures. It'll also be able to take AR pictures.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#980

Post by kr4 »

The biggest spiritual revolution will take a strong shape during this decade based on values of kindness, compassion and empathy. This is because people will gradually realize that almost all the current problems including mental diseases (depression), religious conflicts, political turmoil, economic and military warfare are happening because of selfish living, and very narrow mindset. Though technology and comfort wise humans have progressed a lot over last couple of centuries but mentally the same degree of evolution hasn't happened. (if it had, we’d have no physical borders/huge national militaries etc. when in technology we’ve broken all distance and boundaries) The fault lines are increasingly visible again which may cause WW3 but spiritual revolution is coming with or without WW3.
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