Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

Even if you somehow managed to implement this all the way to the camera level, all this does is add more trust to already-reputable journalists. Deep-fakes may become good enough to trick even those journalists, but fact-checking will still eliminate most accidental false reporting for this purpose.

Fake news funded by various shady entities already does and will continue to misinform the public wherever it is profitable for them to do so. No doubt they will latch on to deep-fakes at every opportunity for the outrage clicks.

The movement to regulate tech may solve this, but it has little momentum. It's a common talking point for democratic candidates currently but only because it's becoming popular among their younger base. "Big-idea" solutions such as breaking up Facebook, regulating political online advertising similarly to TV, etc. may become popular, and even implemented. But I doubt they will actually work properly due to compromises and insane levels of nuance surrounding the technical implementations of these regulations.

Maybe "fake news" gets addressed in 2040, but I believe it will get much worse before it gets better.

Technology and Privacy - Rise of quality internet speeds. We have had slow jumps from 3g to 4g but the jump to 5g will be the first meaningful change in relation to internet speeds. It will be like jumping from 2g straight to 5g. This is dependent on telcos companies realising more people want good services. - Airtel exiting a few African countries. At least for Kenya, am calling it on Airtel quitting the market and we will have new entrants who will either buy airtel or new telcos will enter the scene. - Online e-commerce stores like Jumia will struggle. For Jumia specifically, I see them exiting or being bought with another company. - Increase in logistics companies will benefit more from intra-trade. - Apple will make its first big push in Africa. Having almost hit saturation point in china and India, it will be time for them to push into the African market launching official stores, introducing hackathons and pushing MacOs into the scene through promoting local made apps/content. - Open source will be adopted more. Moving away from walled gardens like chrome in favour of firefox and even Linux gaining more users. A result of mistrust with current state of privacy. - Twitter will pivot, die or be bought - An African social media company will displace Facebook in Africa just like in Russia and China. If not, most countries will have their own thing going. - Self driving cars won’t enter the African scene. Maybe the next decade. Major infrastructure investments still need to be done to catchup. This will also affect other autonomous things like drones. - The decade of African unicorns (private companies worth a billion dollars) - Intentional companies like uber, glovo, amazon, KFC, etc will see a decline as people start adopting local/African centric companies. - Fin tech startups are a bubble that will burst and die down this decade. - More foreigners will continue launching in Africa with massive financial backing but will have to move entire operations within the continent. - More African companies will let employees work from home - - Surveillance in Africa will take off. Street cameras, DNA, online, tracking of phone calls and chats. This will be pushed more by China and human rights problems will still be prevalent. - Africa will have the biggest cyber security risks with even more people adopting tech. - Blockchain will finally become useful as governments adopt it to increase transparency and efficiency. - One stable coin/ crypto currency will gain adoption for regional and intentional transfers displacing banks and mobile money. - Mobile money will still be huge but push from banks will mean more people will be banking and using mobile banking apps for transfers with service like Pesalink in Kenya gaining a lot of traction. Banks partnering might develop the tool for the point above this. - The dot com generation (born 1980 onwards according to me) will lead push in funding local startups with African venture capital companies starting up.

Politics and economy - All dictators will fall - Younger presidents will be elected (below 60yrs) in more counties - Rwanda will be in top 3 biggest economies in Africa by the end of the decade - Urban rural migration will reverse with more developments in outside towns - Like the rest of the world, Artificial intelligence use like deep fakes and fake news will wreck havoc and continue to be a big problem in politics especially during elections. - Airplane ticket prices will become affordable especially intentional to other African counties. - Moving around Africa will be flawless with more countries doing away with visas with East Africa becoming the single biggest market. This will face stiff competition with west African countries moving to single currency. I don’t think East Africa will push for single currency anytime soon. - A few African countries will sink into recession as they struggle to payback China. Infrastructure growth will slow down and we might see the return of the West into Africa as they try to gain favour with new projects - We will see less Made in China and more Made in (insert African country) - More international companies will transfer their ‘low level’ work force like companies into Africa Ethiopia as a leading example.

Religion & culture - More Africans will shun religion with traditional and indigenous tribes being on their death bed. This might also lead to radicalised and extremist groups continuing to cause terrorism but eventually it will die down maybe in the next decade - Islam will be the only religion with an increase in followers by the end of the decade - FGM will be illegal in the entire continent - Same as early child marriages.

Energy and climate change - Increase in energy demands means alternative green energy will be main focus for African countries to keep up with energy demands. We will even see more data centres being setup in more African counties to serve more localised content. - I wont rule out African countries adopting old energy sources like coal. General thinking is we have had the least impact in effects of climate change. Other nations got rich through coal and oil. Why not us? I dont support the argument but it can’t be ruled out. - A new push for nuclear energy and at least 1 country joining the nuclear arms race. - Plastic bags will be banned in the entire continent.

Tourism & entertainment - With climate change destroying more national parks, African countries will have to find new ways to sustain their economies away from tourism which might mean rise of theme/amusement parks. Maybe Disney ️ - We will see more african artists breaking into the intentional scene and having the first African artist with a song with over a billion views in YouTube. - African made movies will enter the international scene doing world premieres. - E-sports will be huge with growing global trends.

Similarly, it looks like wall street already has job losses from automating trading. Is that an ai automation? The problem is you could label any job losses due to automating things as not ai, even though actual jobs will continue to be replaced more and more by computers. Have you seen the mcdonald's where you order it yourself instead of using a panel, there must have been fewer people hired to take orders there.