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Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

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Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#931

In the online world, it seems like there are two big things happening right now: - Neural networks / ML (eg GPT-2) Definitely nowhere near its potential for being applied to a wide variety of areas. Find a niche you like and apply there. - Security / Privacy (eg Telegram) Rapidly growing demand pretty much everywhere. Bonus points if you can make your product great for standard users and at the same time hackable/cus…

>Here's some ideas you might find interesting, To expand on your key ideas: it looks pretty comprehensive but if you're interested in making the world a better place as well, have a look at 80,000 hours [1]. They've been thinking about this question for at least 8 years and it's quite extensive. They have a simple quiz that might also be an interesting starting point [2]. [1] https://80000hours.org/key-ideas/ [2] htt…

Hey luc4sdreyer, thanks for the link! I'm about to graduate college soon and I find the 80000hours website extremely helpful. Randomly encountering this site is one of the best thing that happened this week, thank you very much!

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#932

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bjørn Lomborg's education is in political science and statistics. His analyses, while occasionally thought-provoking, are opposed by the vast majority of actual working climate scientists. He has gotten a lot of attention by simply being a climate contrarian.

The same implication could be made about climate scientists, who are not trained in geopolitics or economics. I don't think it's fair to box people in based on their education, and also, there isn't any degree which really qualifies you fully to discuss the geopolitical and economic impacts of climate science.

> The same implication could be made about climate scientists, who are not trained in geopolitics or economics.

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. I would take a climate scientist's opinion of macroeconomic trends with a grain of salt, to say the least.

PhD's are a deep dive into a very narrow field of study. They are most definitely not a "universal expert" certification.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#933

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the first step is to develop a skeptics mindset. As a scientist, your job isn't to believe, its to address evidence and evaluate whether or to it supports or conflicts with a given hypothesis. A profound influence on my development in the sciences was a older (he was 55+ at the time), physical chemist I shared an office with,'John'. Arguably, he was one of the greatest critical thinkers I had ever had the pri…

How does this apply to ML, beyond the usual train/validation/test split?

Because, the usual train/ validation/ test design often fails to generate a useful ML model/ pipeline. With out some serious consideration into the nitty gritty of the 'experiment design' (see above for what I mean by that), we get 'all-hat no cattle' results.

Lets take a small toy example from one that came up a few days ago, the model that could predict 'heart-disease' from one heartbeat. Their data set came from two different sources: their 'disease state' and 'null state' patients had their cardiograms recorded via different instruments. They did some statistical re-sampling to get the data to 'match', so, a skeptics flags should already be raised. Second major issue: without resampling, they had an effective N of 30; they made the decision to 'slice' every ones cardio gram into thousands of examples. The RNN (i think it was an RNN), obviously, will need thousands of examples to train. They then randomly sampled (according to their train/validation/test split) from this distribution of 'beats' to train their model.

So they didn't do anything 'wrong' according to what myself, and what I would assume yourself were told when we did this or that course in ML. But actually, from an experimental design POV, this is clearly going to overfit. Even disregarding the resampling of the original data (its own, very suspect issue), the slicing alone is enough to realize 'Ah. This is horse crap'. Think about it like this. Say its a 80:10:10 split. Take a random sample of n heartbeats, 3 heartbeats long, from n=100k heartbeats. What is the probability of a heartbeat in the training data set not being very close (in time proximity) to a heartbeat in the validation/ test set? I don't have the time to work it out on paper, but its most likely that anything in the test/ validation set will be temporally adjacent to something in the training set. The probability of anything in the test/ validation being very different from something in the training dataset (say, 3-4 beat sets away in either direction) is very very unlikely. The vast majority of data in the test/validation dataset will have two direct neighbors, both used in training, the next most populated class will have 1 neighbor in one direction, and the almost none will be separated at great distance (even 2-3 beats isolated from something in the training dataset).

This issue central here is the lack of independence in the experimental design. They've created quasi-independence in their sampling methodology, but at the end of the day, they've still only got an n of 30 (not 300,000-3,000,0000). I get it. For most cases, one almost always has to create a condition of quasi-independence in ones data. To get these algorithms to work, you need lots of data.

Knowledge of what ML is, how it works under the hood (a bit), and how to implement it (more imp. imo), all matter in this space. What matters more (imo), is the mindset that can be developed by doing science as an intellectual exercise. Its good science to remain skeptical and be adherent to the evidence rather than our assumptions.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#934
post #820

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> drought and desertification This is an issue, but increased atmospheric carbon and the latitude land distribution of the Earth probably means desertification will be net-negative for at least a while. (I don't have a source for this, but I recall reading that we have more trees today than ever in history?) Keep in mind, carbon is what plants eat. > When every summer, heatwaves take a few of your neighbours you star…

Desertification is currently increasing: https://www.un.org/en/events/desertification_decade/whynow.s... > more trees today than ever in history? Depending on how big you count history this sounds really implausible. > carbon is what plants eat. A slogan commonly repeated by global warming denialists, because it's true but highly misleading. Plants also primarily require water, and the temperature rise dries out a lo…

> Depending on how big you count history this sounds really implausible.

History := the recorded past (in this case I mean the last few hundred years)

> Desertification is currently increasing

Okay, you're right about this based on the link you sent. In my head I was considering arctic regions / tundra as desert as well, as their recent forestation rate is much faster.

> temperature rise dries out a lot of places

This is true but it also causes other places to become more humid. Higher temperature climate has more liquid water + more entropy ==> more active water cycle on global average. (This is a gross oversimplification but my point is that the increase in temperature is an increase in chaos, and so water that is currently frozen somewhere will be moving around.)

--

The important idea to note here is that we can't just ask "does global warming cause more X"? Because the answer can be yes in some areas and no in others, and an increase in X somewhere does not mean a net increase globally.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#935
post #926

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, there are engineers needed to develop new CAD / sim software to better model liquid nuclear fuels. That basically would require you to have a very good understanding of software engineering + fluid mechanics, nuclear physics, thermodynamics and chemistry

Thank you. I'm part-time studying applied maths to be able to work on something like that one day.

Great! Feel free to update me in the future :)

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#936

Earlier quoted context omitted.

E2E encryption is kind of a fucky thing, some suggest it is fundamentally impossible for central web services and even mobile / desktop apps. Basically, if there is a third party involved in the code besides Alice and Bob, the two can never guarantee E2E encryption. Web part is simple, as there are countless ways you can get malicious code delivered from what you think is the correct, safe, web server. Same concept a…

>E2E encryption is kind of a fucky thing, some suggest it is fundamentally impossible for central web services and even mobile / desktop apps "some suggest" How about you actually name some competent people who suggest this? >Basically, if there is a third party involved in the code besides Alice and Bob, the two can never guarantee E2E encryption. Oh, this is a downright insane, dishonest argument. Perfection is imp…

> How about you actually name some competent people who suggest this?

As I don't remember the name of everybody I read about, it would take significant effort to go find the source.

It's much simpler to prove the concept logically:

Any time you're communicating on a service provided, programmed, and updated by at least one third party, it is fundamentally impossible to guarantee E2EE without being omniscient of what they're doing.

This is simply because the unen/decrypted data is in the software at some point in time, and the third party controls the software.

> Oh, this is a downright insane, dishonest argument. Perfection is impossible, so we shouldn't even try!

I did not say or imply this in any way, and no it is neither an insane nor dishonest argument, it's just a consequence of allowing a third party to control your data.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#937
post #711

I had the same question recently and so built an app to surface rapidly growing google trends. It was a Show HN project not long ago and people seemed to like it: https://trennd.co I've also noticed a lot of larger trends that other commenters have highlighted too: - data privacy focussed products (DuckDuckGo/SimpleAnalytics) - everything machine learning - meat substitutes - alternative forms of entertainment (axe t…

My project, https://contact.do , is also part of the data privacy group. It protects the privacy of your email address and it also protects it from spam. You get a contact link which you can post on any site instead of your email.

Here's mine: https://contact.do/toni

Please get in touch if you want a custom contact link or if you have any feedback

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#938
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think in the same lines (I'm building a relational lang http://tablam.org ) and think a modern RDBMS could be made alike: command "city.define miami" |> event pre-process (ie: validations and transformations!) |> write-ahead log |> fire-observers: [post log for later OR block writes] The idea is to put some of the stored procedures in the "event pre-process" before commit to write-ahead. In the "fire-observers" ste…

Not sure if this is what you mean but these exist - Oracle Queues, MQSeries, RabbitMQ (open source MQSeries copy), all part of a generic thing called Enterprise Service Bus

I would suggest thinking more along the lines of Kafka/Kinesis/et cetera. ESBs are often not persistent and as a result not available for reprocessing against new use cases or with fixed code.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#939

I work in this field so I'm incredibly biased: automated business solutions that cut entry-level data employees out of the equation. You save TONS on the bottom line, and cut out human-driven process that is error prone and difficult to manage. I'm talking about things beyond "API-driven dev", more in the realms of Puppeteer, Microsoft Office automation, screen-scraping (mouse/keyboard), etc. I make API's out of thin…

I was working for a scientific journal. In the peer-review department, they had to use this proprietary software, and we had 2 employees who just mindlessly went through this proprietary software's form day-in, day-out. This form spammed scientists for reviews of science articles for our somewhat-predatory journal (we solicited authors to publish in our journal for a fee)... First, it was a massive waste of those 2 h…

When those jobs are automated, what will the human workers do, will they leave that company? I'd enjoy doing something else if that was my job, but if there was a more useful job there, wouldn't they already be doing it? This is in summary why I think more automation will lead to some people losing their jobs - if there was a more profitable alternative for a company (more productive, paid as well or better?) then wouldn't the company already have automated it?

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#940
post #273

ML for healthcare. The whole industry is so far behind everything else, it is not even funny. Problem is, Just like Airbnb or Uber, the biggest road blocks are not technological, they are organizational and political. It is entirely possible, we might need some major privacy / security related leaps in ML to convince the medical industry to adopt it fully. ML in movies and rendering. Deep Fakes is just an amateur's t…

What you're talking with 'render rights' is a major plot point in: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Congress_(2013_film)

Also, the Michael Crichton movie Looker: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Looker
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