Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#921

Post by quartus » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:54 PM UTC

hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #841

air7 wrote: post #132

Here are mine: 1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype. 2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation. 3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong…

> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries. Per-capita CO emissions [1]: United States 17.5 Australia 16.75 Canada 14.67 Russian Fed. 12.18 South Korea 11.78 Norway 11.71 Finland 11.53 Greenland 11.07 Netherlands 10.96 ... China 6.18 Mexico 3.91 Brazil 2.15 India 1.64 If lack of initiative is to blame we need to point the right culprits. [1] htt…

How did you cherry pick that list? The actual top countries per capita from your source are:

  Qatar 40.1
  Trinidad & Tobago 37.78
  Kuwait 34.24
  Netherlands Antilles 23.55
  Brunei Darussalam 22.96
  United Arab Emirates 22.31
  Aruba 21.59
  Luxembourg 21.34
  ...

But looking at the total, rather than per-capita, carbon emissions makes more sense if we want to actually cut total carbon emissions.

Here is the list of top CO2 emitting countries:

  China 10,877.2
  United States 5,107.4
  India 2,454.8
  Russia 1,764.9
  Japan 1,320.8
  Germany 796.5
  South Korea 673.3
  Iran 671.5
  ...

from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_di... , which cites the source https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/fossil-co2-emissions...

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#922

Post by eckza » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 9:58 PM UTC

CptFribble wrote: post #215

- Ads are no longer presented or indicated as such. All advertisement besides public space billboards are paid product placements, advertorials, and sponsored dialogue in TV shows. - The trend toward "authenticity" still ramping up in 2020 hits full swing, and commercial entities follow suit. Any announced commercial speech is viewed with distrust, while meme tweets are celebrated as "real." Corporate messaging becom…

This is the worst timeline.

Some of this is, most assuredly, going to happen - at least to some extent.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#923

Post by snarf21 » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:01 PM UTC

jb775 wrote: post #482

1.) As quantum computing advances, there will be at least one successful 51% attack on a major cryptocurrency. 2.) Tesla/SpaceX StarLink will become a major competitor in the ISP space. Most transmitted data throughout the world will touch a StarLink satellite. 3.) Financial downturn/semi-recession in mid-late decade primarily caused by excessive corporate stock buybacks artificially inflating stock prices. (Stock bu…

3 will start immediately after the election results are in.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#924

Post by justinzollars » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:01 PM UTC

scanr wrote: post #752

- Automation replaces the need to have a human workforce. North Korea murders 99% of its population and replaces them with robots. Kim still goes around factories pointing at things. - It becomes possible to literally program humans to do whatever you want them to do. Python is the chosen language but a lack of type safety results in an error that wipes out half of humanity. - We colonize mars but by choosing only th…

> - Incels are prescribed virtual girlfriend therapy to provide them company and acclimate them to interactions with the opposite gender. Black market hacks transform them into anime waifus.

hahaha this is a good one #startupideas

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#925

Post by danielovichdk » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:08 PM UTC

USA will bankrupt before 2030

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#926

Post by opminion » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:09 PM UTC

No full, level 5, self-driving cars, but still 50% fewer traffic deaths due to increased driving automation.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#927

Post by julienreszka » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:20 PM UTC

lerax wrote: post #60

2020-2029: New AI winter.

Yes, after we create AGI it will stagnate at human like level of cognition because AGI with more advanced levels of cognition can't find product market fit.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#928

Post by qznc » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:22 PM UTC

the_jeremy wrote: post #67

* Moore's law stays dead. Having a lightweight laptop that does nothing more than provide a portal to more powerful machines enters the consumer field (Stadia already exists, but other uses will appear). Probably offered by an existing cloud provider first. * Recession happens this decade. * Someone becomes the US democratic nominee with a UBI platform. * The US gets single payer healthcare. * Zoning laws become an e…

> Moore's law stays dead

It is not dead yet. Maybe you meant Dennard Scaling?

> Having a lightweight laptop that does nothing more than provide a portal to more powerful machines enters the consumer field

Chromebooks already exist for a while.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#929

Post by thu2111 » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:40 PM UTC

klntsky wrote: post #865

pubby wrote: post #592

AI languishes and self-driving cars remain highway-only, but self-checkout stations and simple cleaning/stocking bots become more common. Oil companies begin rebranding as energy companies and pour assets into solar and wind. Climate change continues to worsen, with deniers still prevalent. Craigslist gets bought by Facebook. Google tries to get into online shopping, fails. Desktops still on x64. Phones still on ARM,…

> Programming language design is stagnant with type theory dead-ending with too much complexity Interesting. Maybe this will be the case for languages with bad legacy like C++, but the whole design of new type systems? What sources this prediction is based on?

What sources this prediction is based on?

Arguably the present. There are hardly any innovations in mainstream PL design, the last one was probably linear typing in Rust. The most successful recent languages are all pretty conservative, in the case of Go extremely so.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions?

#930

Post by K0SM0S » Fri, Jan 03, 2020, 10:56 PM UTC

war1025 wrote: post #867

hos234 wrote: post #668

World War 3 starts. Personal data stored in banks/ISPs/FB/Google etc are taken at gun point and used for population scale psychological warfare. Kissinger(World Order)/Niall Ferguson(Square and the Tower)/Graham Allison(Thucydides Trap)/Moises Naim(End of Power) say networks of power are more and more unstable similar to 1914. To maintain stability they(irrespective of ideology) keep pandering to their fan clubs and…

WWII gets all the press, but a WWI scenario seems much more likely and tragic. WWII had an active aggressor. WWI was just a chain reaction of alliances acting out their obligations. I had a nightmare about trench warfare and the futility of it all just the other day.

This, totally this.

A weird situation though is that socially we're closer to the 1920's-30's, whereas geopolitically it's much more like the 1900's-10's. Weird how history repeats itself, never quite the same, and I won't fall for numerology, and yet. Here we are.